The record price of gold indicates a fundamental shift in the global reserve system. What does this mean for an investor

Gold is breaking historical records in value again — the price of the metal per troy ounce briefly exceeded the $4,650 mark on January 14. In the last three years alone, the value of this protective asset has increased 2.5 times, from $1,800. If we take a longer period, then over the past 25 years, gold as an asset has doubled even the S&P 500 Total Return (including dividends and excluding taxes). Traditionally, it is believed that gold is used as a risk hedging tool in times of crisis, but the current anomaly may indicate a more fundamental shift — the transition from a single-pole logic of reserve formation to a two-pole one. Liquid instruments remained in one circuit — currencies and bonds. On the other hand, gold is a sovereign protection asset, normally designed to ensure the survival of the system in conditions of serious risks. Why the world chose sustainability and what it means for a private investor in Russia — in the Izvestia article.

How has the reserve architecture changed?

- The dollar is gradually losing its status as the world's main reserve currency, not so much in official calculations as as an asset. One of the key proofs of this shift is the actions of central banks that are building up gold reserves. In November alone, the reserves of the world's central banks were replenished by 45 tons of gold, and since the beginning of 2025, total purchases have amounted to almost 300 tons. As a result, according to experts, precious metal prices rose by 65% last year, the most powerful jump since 1979, and the dollar index fell by 9.4%, the worst decline in the last eight years.

- In January, analysts at The Kobeissi Letter assessed the role of the dollar and gold in global reserves. The share of precious metals reached the highest level since the early 1990s - 28%. The growth over the past 10 years has amounted to 12 points, as a result, gold has overtaken the euro, the yen and the pound sterling. At the same time, the dollar accounts for about 40% of the world's foreign exchange reserves. And this is the lowest figure in 20 years. Over the past 10 years, the share of the US currency has decreased by 18 percentage points. At the same time, it follows from Bloomberg data that when gold is included in the total reserves structure, the dollar's share falls below the symbolic mark of 50% — to about 47%. Gold ranks second with a 20% share.

- These are not statistics. The International Monetary Fund's report on the foreign exchange structure of reserves (COFER) indicates that the dollar's share is approximately 57%. In monetary terms, this is more than $7 trillion. However, there is no data on gold, as it is traditionally considered as a separate asset category. At the same time, official information on gold reserves is published by the IMF and the World Gold Council, but statistics are based on voluntary disclosure of information by individual countries. For example, there have long been suspicions that China's reserves contain much more gold than is claimed (not 2.3 thousand tons, according to data for the third quarter, but two or 10 times more). In general, this indicates the lack of a complete picture of the stock dynamics. In other words, all calculations and comparisons of the shares of foreign currency assets and gold are interpretations.

What about the profitability

- The trend towards reducing the role of the US currency in global reserves is obvious. For the first time since the mid-1990s, the total market value of U.S. Treasury bonds held by the world's central banks has become less than the total market value of gold in their reserves ($3.7 versus $5.2 trillion).

- US Treasuries have become an asset with weak long-term real returns. The $10,000 invested 20 years ago in U.S. Treasury bonds (assuming that the coupons have been reinvested) will turn into $18,000 now (excluding inflation). Over the same period, gold purchased through an exchange—traded fund showed over 650% increase in value, and if income is reinvested, $10,000 will become $75,000.

What does this mean for a private portfolio

- Although reports show that the dollar occupies the largest share of total foreign exchange reserves, central banks have begun to redistribute reserves in favor of gold. Precious metals reduce dependence on foreign currency assets, whose value and purchasing power may fluctuate under the influence of issuers' policies. And this indicates a fundamental shift — the dollar has ceased to be an alternative, and gold is no longer considered just a liability without profitability, it has become an asset to reduce systemic risk. That is, there has been a transition from a single—core system to a two-core one - profitability has ceased to be the main KPI, the focus has shifted to survival and control.

- The main practical conclusion that a Russian private investor can make after studying the topic is to reconsider the logic of money management. But it doesn't make sense to copy the structure of the Central Bank's reserves. Central banks have access to liquidity, markets, and policy tools that individuals do not have. For Russians, long—term Western bonds are a risk of losing access at the first system failure. The income from them does not compensate for the risk of control. The main priority when forming a portfolio is not how much it will bring, but whether it will remain under control if the situation changes.

- It is not reasonable to completely abandon the dollar yet, but it does not make sense to keep 100% of the currency part in the American currency. The optimal amount is approximately 50% USD in the currency block. It is important to remember that a currency without diversification in terms of storage forms does not provide the protection that it did before.

- At the same time, it is worth noting that the build-up of gold in the Central Bank's vaults is a reflection of structural risks. This makes precious metals an option for capital protection or an airbag. In this context, gold ceases to be a liability without profitability. It does not start to bring a coupon, but performs another function — it reduces the systemic risk. Therefore, it may be reasonable to give 10-20% of the portfolio to gold. But it should be stored in a form where access and control belong to the owner, not the intermediary.

- The ideal formula is one in which part of the investor's capital is placed in assets that are under direct physical or legal control. Part of it is to work and bring a stream of income. And only a limited portion can be devoted to growth and experimentation.

The theses contained in the text are not an investment recommendation, but the opinion of the editors.