The economist estimated the consequences of reducing deposit rates to 15.1%

The average maximum interest rate on ruble deposits in the largest banks has decreased to 15.1% per annum, which indicates the transition of the banking market to a more balanced model of attracting public funds. A massive outflow of depositors at this level of profitability should not be expected, however, the structure of demand for deposits is gradually changing. Evgeny Shatov, a partner at Capital Lab, told Izvestia on January 16.

According to him, deposits at a rate of about 15% still provide positive real returns, taking into account expected inflation, and remain the most understandable and reliable savings tool for most households. A significant part of the funds is placed on term deposits, and in conditions of economic uncertainty, Russians tend to prefer guaranteed returns to riskier alternatives. At the same time, depositors' interest is beginning to shift towards longer fixed-rate deposits and savings accounts with flexible conditions, where liquidity is more important than maximum profitability.

Ilya Rusyaev, a business consultant and founder of the Rusyaev Club business community, added that depositors' reaction will largely be determined by the real profitability of deposits against the background of inflationary expectations. With high inflationary pressures remaining, some of the population may gradually look for alternatives in bonds, money market funds, foreign exchange, or large purchases. However, for a significant proportion of citizens, the contribution remains a financial "safety cushion", and the change in behavior will be rather gradual.

"Interestingly, the structure of deposit rates also gives hints. According to the monitoring data of the Central Bank, the maximum average rates in the first decade of January were distributed as follows: up to 90 days — 14.52%, from 91 to 180 days — 14.75%, from 181 days to a year — 14.03%, over a year — only 12.36%. This profile shows that banks do not encourage the population to fix the rate for a long time, preferring short- and medium-term funding. Investors, in response, often choose short horizons, leaving themselves the opportunity to quickly respond to changes in the market. Such caution is justified: the trajectory of the key rate remains uncertain, and people do not want to lock themselves into a long—term product with potentially unfavorable conditions," the economist stressed.

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On January 15, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation announced that the average maximum deposit rate in the 10 largest banks decreased in the first decade of January to 15.1% per annum.

Prior to that, on January 1, it became known that in 2026, part of the interest income on bank deposits in Russia will be exempt from tax — at least in the amount of 160 thousand rubles. The threshold of non-taxable income is calculated based on the maximum key rate of the Central Bank for the period of interest receipt and may increase with its growth. Income above this level will be subject to personal income tax at a rate of 13%, and if over 2.4 million rubles — at a rate of 15%.

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