The analyst assessed the consequences of lowering the ceiling on Russian oil prices by the European Union

Lowering the ceiling on Russian oil by the European Union (EU) will not bring big problems. Vladimir Demidov, an independent expert on the resources and energy market, expressed this opinion on Friday, January 16.

The EU sanctions mean practically nothing, since Russia does not directly supply oil there, Demidov explained.

"The first thing this may lead to is a short—term increase in the discount on Russian oil on the Indian and Turkish markets, primarily because they are key intermediaries between Russia and the European Union. But, as we can see from the history of similar sanctions over the past three years, this discount is likely to disappear in a month, two at most," the analyst said in an interview with Lenta.Ru .

According to him, it is much more important for Russia what sanctions the United States imposes.

"I doubt that the United States can support this initiative at this stage. You need to understand that there is quite a lot of political turbulence right now. We can see that oil prices have increased by 10-12% over the past few days. That is, the price for Brent is $67, the price for Urals is $55-$56. And in this situation, the ceiling of $44 will be just as adequate as the ceiling of $10. Therefore, I don't see any big problems," he concluded.

Raw materials preparation: EU plans to tighten oil sanctions against Russia

The 20th package of restrictions is being actively discussed in Brussels, and it is expected to be adopted by February 24.

On January 14, it became known that the EU had lowered the ceiling on Russian oil prices to $44.1 per barrel from February 1 of this year, NSN reports. The new limit will be effective from February 1, according to the website. kp.ru .

Initially, the limit was set at $60 at the end of 2022, then, in early autumn 2025, it was lowered to $47.6.

It is noted that this regulation applies only to sea shipments.

Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia and the National Energy Security Fund, told RT that the next reduction in the ceiling on Russian oil prices is rather an automatic bureaucratic procedure, rather than a new tightening of sanctions.

In December 2025, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Dmitry Lyubinsky said that due to Brussels' energy war against Russia, there are currently no prospects for cooperation with EU countries in this area. According to him, Russian oil continues to be delivered to Slovakia and Hungary in accordance with long-term contracts through the still-operating Druzhba oil pipeline.

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