The economist noted the influence of geopolitics on the ruble exchange rate

During the first working week of January 2026, the ruble exchange rate was formed under the influence of several fundamental factors, most of which are external. At the same time, there were no significant changes in the dynamics of ruble instruments. Alexander Schneiderman, Head of Alfa-Forex's Customer Support and Sales department, told Izvestia on January 16.

"The key source of support for the national currency is the rise in world oil prices due to the serious geopolitical instability around Iran. Rising oil prices traditionally improve the currency balance and create a favorable background for the ruble," he said.

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An additional factor of stabilization, according to the expert, is the seasonal effect. As the holiday period ends, exporting companies increase sales of foreign exchange earnings during the tax period, which helps smooth out the shortage of ruble liquidity and reduces pressure on the exchange rate.

At the same time, geopolitics remains a significant constraint on the strengthening of the ruble. In the United States, a bill on tough new sanctions may be put to the vote, and the very fact of its discussion acts as a factor of pressure on the foreign exchange market. Investors place an increased risk premium, which curbs demand for ruble-denominated assets.

"The geopolitical background as a whole creates additional volatility. The market is extremely sensitive to news from diplomatic platforms, and any signals of progress or, conversely, stagnation of dialogue between Russia, the United States and Western European countries are promptly reflected in currency quotes," Schneiderman said.

He specified that, taking into account the current macroeconomic and geopolitical inputs, the expected corridor for the dollar at the beginning of the second half of January is 76-81 rubles. The euro is likely to trade in the range of 88-94.50 rubles, while the weekly range for the yuan is estimated at 10.9-11.75 rubles. Going beyond the upper limits is possible if the sanctions package is adopted, while consolidation at the lower levels will require oil prices to remain above local highs and the appearance of positive signals in the negotiations, which will reduce geo-economic tensions.

Yuri Moseikin, Doctor of Economics, Head of the Department of National Economics at the Patrice Lumumba RUDN University of Economics, said on December 5 that the downward trend in the dollar exchange rate could end before the end of this year. According to the expert, the growth of the dollar will be influenced by two factors — the expectation of an increase in imports after changes in geopolitics and the need to replenish the budget.

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