Switching channels: why parallel car imports have decreased
Car imports to Russia through alternative channels decreased slightly. At the same time, the import of cars through some countries has seriously decreased, while through others, on the contrary, it has increased noticeably. Given the restrictions imposed in Russia and abroad, experts have different views on the prospects for alternative car imports. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Decline and growth
According to the results of last year, about 172 thousand cars under the age of three were imported to Russia under alternative import schemes. This was announced by Sergey Tselikov, General Director of the analytical agency Autostat. This is 5% lower than in 2024, when more than 181,000 vehicles were delivered through unofficial channels, he noted.
The main volume fell on China, the expert said. 71.3 thousand cars were imported from China to Russia, which is more than 41.4% of all cars supplied according to unofficial schemes. Compared to 2024, the import of such cars from China increased by 22%, said Sergey Tselikov.
Kyrgyzstan is in second place with a share of 31.1% (53.6 thousand cars), which has actually become the main transit country for the supply of "alternative" cars to Russia. However, last year the volume of imports in this direction decreased by 24%. The number of cars imported through Belarus decreased even more (by 34% at once) (17.1 thousand cars, 9.9% of the volume of alternative imports).
But South Korea, despite the relatively small number of imported cars (12.2 thousand units, 7.2% of all shipments), showed very strong growth last year (+269% compared to 2024), said Sergey Tselikov.
Anton Shaparin, Vice President of the National Automobile Union (NAS), explains the multidirectional dynamics by tightening controls in some countries and the emergence of new channels in others.
"The fight against the so—called "Kyrgyz scheme" and more thorough and strict control over compliance with the requirements of customs legislation and registration of machines supplied from the EAEU countries, as well as certification documents issued by Kyrgyz testing laboratories, are gradually yielding results," the vice president of NAS told Izvestia.
As for Belarus, due to the "leveling up" of recycling and a decrease in the number of beneficiaries who could arrange a car at more favorable customs rates, importing cars through this country became economically impractical.
— The increase in the share of cars imported from Korea is explained by the logistical accessibility of this country, the absence of serious problems with transferring money for cars, and a good choice of cars themselves, not only Korean, but also so—called "global" brands, - said Anton Shaparin.
What are they carrying?
Toyota remains the most popular "alternative" brand. During the year, slightly more than 30 thousand cars of this brand were imported into our country through all unofficial channels. This is 45% more than in 2024. Deliveries of BMW models increased by 35% (18 thousand cars over the past year — the second place).
Imports of Geely models (17.6 thousand units, the third line) decreased by 29% compared to 2024, while imports of Lixiang (10.3 thousand units) immediately fell by 57%. Mercedes-Benz closes the top five with a result of 10.2 thousand imported cars, which is 32% more than the year before last. The top ten most popular brands imported through alternative channels also include Mazda, Volkswagen, Kia, Audi and Lexus.
Alternative perspectives
Experts' opinions on the further development of alternative car imports to our country differ. According to Sergey Tselikov's forecasts, the volume of supplies through unofficial channels will decrease this year, but not significantly. However, due to the new rules for calculating scrap collection introduced in December last year, which now take into account not only the engine capacity of the car, but also its power, as well as a threshold for preferential rates for cars imported by private traders, the structure of alternative imports will change seriously, he believes.
— The brand-model structure of alternative will change dramatically. Premium brands, where the share of cars more powerful than 160 hp was very high, received a special "scrap blow", — Sergey Tselikov emphasized.
Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine, also believes that there will be no major changes in the volume of supplies through unofficial channels.
— Both BMW, Toyota, and Kia have models or modifications with engines up to 160 hp, which are subject to benefits for the payment of scrap. Most likely, the share of such machines in the volume of alternative imports will grow," he believes.
Anton Shaparin has a different opinion. He believes that this year the supply of cars through alternative channels will decrease significantly.
— A negligible number of buyers of Mercedes-Benz, BMW or models of any other premium brand opt for the initial trim levels and modifications of these cars. In addition, in Russia recently, a significant part of consumers have been choosing crossovers. And there are very few crossover modifications with engines up to 160 hp in the lines of even mass—market brands," said Anton Shaparin.
According to the forecast of the NAS Vice President, the volume of alternative car imports may decrease by one and a half to two times during the year.
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