What will happen to Venezuela after the US attack. Analysis

On the morning of January 3, the American armed forces attacked targets in Venezuela, including in its capital Caracas. After the operation was completed, the United States announced the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife: in the United States, Maduro will face trial on charges of drug terrorism and conspiracy to store weapons. What will happen to Venezuela and why the attacks took place right now is in the analysis of Izvestia.

The situation in Venezuela

• After the US attack, a state of emergency was declared in the country. Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez said the military and police are ready for any situation. She also demanded that the United States provide evidence that captured President Nicolas Maduro and his wife are alive. According to the Venezuelan authorities, there are deaths among the military and civilian population as a result of the strike, the exact number of victims is still unknown.

• The US attack effectively decapitated the country. This can lead to chaos, which will be exploited by American intelligence agencies, or drug cartels that have effectively divided the country. Under these conditions, criminal groups may begin to redistribute spheres of influence, and violence may spill over into neighboring Latin American countries. Colombia has already announced increased security measures on the border with Venezuela.

• At the same time, there are signals from the Venezuelan authorities that all authorities continue to function as before. At the same time, they urge their compatriots to "mobilize to protect the country's resources." There are many military personnel on the streets of the capital.

The Monroe Doctrine in action: The United States has struck at Venezuela

Military bases and infrastructure facilities were attacked

• It is difficult to predict how this situation will end for Venezuela, but it is obvious that so far the United States regards the strikes on the country as a one-time operation, since no decision has been made to deploy American troops.

• According to the Venezuelan Constitution, Vice President Delcy Rodriguez will lead the country. While she has not been officially named acting president, it is also unclear whether early presidential elections will be held. According to the constitution, Maduro's term of office (and, consequently, his vice-president) will expire in 2031.

• The United States and Europe have supported and continue to support the Venezuelan opposition, whose leader Maria Corina Machado won the Nobel Peace Prize last year. In December, she secretly left Venezuela for Oslo, her whereabouts have not been disclosed.

Strengthen the suppression: The United States is taking the conflict with Venezuela to a new stage

What are the American authorities trying to achieve by attacking the territory of the Bolivarian Republic

Reasons for the attack

• These attacks were expected (for more information about why the United States is interested in this region, see here). The United States is engaged in restoring order in its "backyard", and therefore is interested in regime change in Venezuela. Earlier, during Trump's first term, the United States had already tried to change power in the Latin American country: then, with the help of the CIA, opposition leader Juan Guaido was brought to power, he even declared himself interim president, but Maduro regained his position. The president of Venezuela supports the course towards the country's sovereignty, declared by former leader Hugo Chavez, under which the US military presence in the country was reduced (we discussed more about how tensions between the countries have been growing for decades here). The United States' goal in Venezuela may also be to control oil and mineral resources.

• The American press reports that attacks on Venezuela were planned for the Catholic Christmas on December 25, but then the armed forces chose to strike at Nigeria. Then the attacks were postponed due to weather conditions. But there is another version: Trump could have specifically chosen the time when Congress is on vacation. U.S. law requires the government to approve congressional military action, but the Senate has not been notified of the impending strikes.

• Trump needs a victory because his negotiating track on Ukraine has not yet had the desired effect. Venezuela may be the easiest target for the United States. The countries of Africa, Latin America and BRICS are expected to condemn the strikes, but dependent on the United States, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Great Britain and Europe are unlikely to give a sharply negative reaction to the actions of the United States. The US attack on Venezuela demonstrates a fundamental change in the previous principles of the world order and the return of the "right of the strongest" to international politics.

The reaction in the world

• The Latin American countries of Colombia and Cuba reacted to the attacks on Venezuela. Colombian President Gustavo Petro said that the United States attacked Venezuela long before the American authorities admitted their involvement in the strikes, and demanded a UN response. Colombia is strengthening security measures on the border with Venezuela. Former Bolivian President Evo Morales also condemned the US imperial attack on Venezuela.

• Russia expressed its solidarity with the people of Venezuela and condemned the attack and supported the convening of a meeting of the UN Security Council. Belarus called the US aggression against Venezuela a direct threat to international peace and security. Turkey and Iran condemned the attacks. Germany expressed concern about the situation in Venezuela, and Spain called for a de-escalation of the conflict.

• The EU Foreign Ministry said it was monitoring the situation in Caracas and the safety of EU diplomats in Venezuela. The head of the European Diplomacy, Kaya Callas, said that Maduro does not have legitimacy, but it is necessary to "comply with the principles of international law and the UN Charter." Argentine President Javier Miley posted a post on social media welcoming the US attack on Venezuela and the capture of Maduro.

During the preparation of the Izvestia material, we talked and took into account the opinions of:

• Andrey Klimov, member of the Russian Council on Foreign Defense Policy (SWAP);
• military expert Yuri Knutov;
• The head of the German Council for Constitution and Sovereignty, Ralf Niemeyer;
• political scientist Mark Lowe;
• the American writer Dmitry Drobnitsky.