Saudi Arabia is attacking Yemen. What you need to know
The Saudi-led coalition conducted a military operation in the port of Mukalla in eastern Yemen, which aimed to stop the supply of weapons to the forces of the Southern Transitional Council (UPC). According to the Saudi side, the strikes did not cause casualties or damage the port infrastructure, and the operation itself was targeted. What this conflict can lead to is in the Izvestia article.
The origins of the conflict
The protracted internal conflict in Yemen actually took shape after the fall of Sanaa in 2014, when power in the capital passed to the Houthis. From that moment on, the country split into several zones of influence. The Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have established control over most of the territory, primarily the north and west, including major cities and the Red Sea coast.
• At the same time, the internationally recognized leadership of Yemen acted, having worked for a long time from Saudi Arabia and only in recent years partially returned to Aden, which is considered a temporary administrative center. The Southern Transitional Council, which emerged in 2017 at the height of the civil war as a movement to restore the independence of South Yemen, which was an independent state until 1990, has become a separate player. UPS mainly enjoys the support of the UAE. His forces took control of Aden in 2019, which then led to strikes from Saudi Arabia and subsequent negotiations with its mediation.
• As a result, part of the Southern Transitional Council was integrated into the general system of government, but the contradictions have not disappeared. In 2024, supporters of the UPU again took active action, establishing control over a number of provinces and declaring their readiness to join the fight against the Houthis on their own.
Aggravation of the situation
• According to the Saudi coalition, the reason for the strikes on December 30, 2025, was the actions of two ships that entered the port from the emirate of Fujairah at the end of December without official permission, turned off identification systems and unloaded weapons and equipment. These supplies were regarded as a violation of the existing truce agreements and decisions of the UN Security Council. The Saudi side claims that the strikes were carried out in compliance with international humanitarian law and were aimed at curbing illegal arms trafficking.
• The incident is yet another escalation in relations between Saudi Arabia and the Southern Transitional Council amid the protracted civil war in Yemen. The conflict, which has been going on since 2014, has led to the actual disintegration of the country. The Houthis control the north and west, the south is under the influence of separatist forces, and the rest of the territory is formally subordinated to an internationally recognized government.
The importance of Yemen
• Saudi Arabia supports an internationally recognized government that controls only a small part of the country, based primarily on strategic interests. Yemen is important to Riyadh because of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, through which key oil exports pass. In addition, the kingdom seeks to maintain its dominant position on the Arabian Peninsula and prevent the strengthening of competitors, while within Yemen itself the conflict is complicated by the confrontation of forces supported by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
• At the same time, the Yemen crisis remains a peripheral element of the Middle East instability against the background of the much larger Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Nevertheless, the interests of many external players overlap around Yemen: Iran, which supports the Houthis, Israel, the United States, as well as the Persian Gulf countries.
Settlement prospects
• Saudi Arabia's key motivation in the Yemen conflict is to secure its own borders. Yemen has historically been perceived by Riyadh as a source of constant threats: from illegal migration flows and the activity of radical groups to the general instability of a failed state. An additional factor was the aggravation of contradictions between the former allies themselves — Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, whose interests in the region are increasingly diverging, including energy policy and influence on the Yemeni forces.
• Normalization of relations between Riyadh and Tehran has reduced the degree of direct confrontation, but the potential for conflict remains, especially due to Israel's steps in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which provoked a sharp reaction from the Houthis. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are able to find a compromise between themselves, but the increased role of Israel and the American factor creates risks of further escalation.
• The situation around Yemen is already having a noticeable impact on the global economy. The Houthi attacks have effectively paralyzed shipping in the Red Sea, leading to increased shipping costs and pressure on oil markets. Alternative routes, including bypassing Africa and overland routes, are becoming more in demand, which is changing global logistics.
• It is difficult to expect stability in the long term, since both Yemen and Somalia on both sides of the Strait remain failed States. A real de-escalation is possible only if there is political will from key regional and global players, primarily the United States, Iran and Israel, without agreements between which the Middle East will continue to remain a zone of chronic conflicts.
• A large-scale Middle East war over Yemen is not to be expected, but chronic instability will persist for decades. Any escalation is fraught with new waves of refugees, primarily towards Saudi Arabia, and risks to shipping and oil infrastructure, although the players themselves will try not to go beyond the dangerous limits. External forces, including the United States and Europe, can only temporarily quell the conflict, but not eliminate its causes, in particular, demographic pressure, water and food shortages, weak state institutions and competition from regional powers.
When writing the material, Izvestia interviewed:
Sergey Balmasov, an expert at the Institute of the Middle East and the Russian Council on International Affairs;
Deputy Director of the Institute of History and Politics of Moscow State University, political scientist Vladimir Shapovalov.
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