A change of course, tariff wars, and deportations: what 2025 was like for Trump. Details

The outgoing year 2025 was the first for Donald Trump after his return to the post of head of state. In less than 12 months, he managed to radically change the role of the United States in international politics and change the rules of the global economy. Domestically, Trump was remembered for his resolute fight against illegal migration and the dismantling of traditions that held back the powers of the White House. What was 2025 like for the 47th president of the United States — in the Izvestia article.

Foreign policy

In recent decades, it has not been so fundamentally important for the whole world who exactly occupies the White House. In the system that developed after World War II, any American president pursued approximately the same foreign policy, which consisted in the fact that the United States was the center of the Western world and the transatlantic space, as well as constructing the global economy and world trade. The presidential election was important primarily for the Americans themselves, who are concerned about taxes, insurance and benefits. The rest of the world was confident that no matter who became the next president of the United States, international relations would remain the same, except that the number of American military personnel deployed in individual countries could change.

• The United States was to some extent a hostage to the established order. Because of their role in NATO, they were obliged to continue to act as a guarantor of European security and follow the trends of the global economy, which required American corporations to shift production to other countries and actively participate in the global division of labor. When Trump returned to the White House, he began to break this order under the slogan "America first", responding to the isolationist sentiments of his constituents, for whom US involvement in world affairs had already begun to seem like a senseless burden.

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• In terms of foreign policy, Trump's first year turned into a deconstruction of the previous security architecture, which was enshrined in the December National Security Strategy. He dispelled faith in Article 5 of the NATO Charter (the key principle of collective defense: it states that an attack on one country of this alliance is regarded as an attack on the entire bloc), which Western politicians perceived as a military shield at the expense of the United States, allowing them to lead an unencumbered lifestyle. The West has come to realize that it is now necessary to ensure security on its own. Trump has finally consolidated China as the main enemy, which is too far from Europe, and therefore Washington no longer sees any point in spending American military resources on it.

• At the same time, Trump did not completely abandon the leadership role of the United States. He only changed his approach to it, becoming a mediator of global conflicts instead of a gendarme. He ends 2025 by claiming that he has managed to complete eight wars in the world, which, with some degree of conditionality, can be attributed to his asset. Trump has ended the hot phase of the conflict in the Gaza Strip and several more border skirmishes, choosing incentives for reconciliation for the warring parties. At the same time, Trump enters 2026 with unresolved contradictions with Venezuela, which threaten to remove the unofficial title of chief peacemaker from the US president. In the summer, he almost lost this title after the attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Global trade

• Trump has also made previously unthinkable changes in the global economy. Before him, the United States played only the role of a leading producer of ideas, creativity and technologies that were embodied anywhere else in the world where it was most profitable and effective, while the United States itself could not claim to be considered the main production site of the planet, having long ago ceded this privilege to China. The United States finds itself in a position of chronic trade deficit, where it is forced to buy more than it sells.

• Trump began to fight this with tariffs, introducing different rates for different countries. As a result, he brought the effective duty rate at which all imports into the United States are imported to 18%, which is the highest level since 1934. The year 2025 was remembered for several trade wars over tariffs, primarily with China (we wrote about how both sides of the trade conflict ended this year here), but also by a number of trade agreements. The previous system, when the global economy was governed by uniform rules under the supervision of the World Trade Organization (WTO), has now been replaced by disparate and dissimilar deals that the United States enters into with other countries. Meanwhile, the WTO's role has been reduced to nothing.

• For the United States, the effect of Trump's tariff policy is not yet very noticeable. The American industry has not yet picked up the expected pace. Instead of reducing imports, enterprises tried to increase them even more, while it was possible to avoid the impact of tariffs and thus slow down price growth. New production in the United States is not growing yet, as evidenced by the growing job cuts.

• Next year may be a turning point for Trump's tariff policy, as the court proceedings will be completed, during which the legal grounds on which the duties were imposed will be assessed. It is possible that some tariffs will have to be canceled, although by that time the administration will find other justifications for their introduction. But even if they don't, the global economy won't return to the old order.

• After the White House assumed the authority to regulate economic processes affecting the entire planet, this circumstance becomes a new risk for long-term investments, which will now be taken into account when planning transnational economic activities and reflected in costs. Trump's tariffs, no matter what benefits or omissions they lead to, have brought certain reputational losses to the United States, which will prevent a rollback to the previous world order for a long time.

Domestic policy

• In one year, Trump has managed to improve the situation with illegal migration to the United States. After the number of illegal border crossings broke a historical record under Joe Biden, it has now dropped to its lowest levels in a decade. Trump fulfilled his promise to launch a large-scale deportation campaign, but the plan to expel one million people in a year was only half completed. The peculiarity of the deportation under Trump was that migrants often did not end up in their native country at all. In addition to illegal migration, legal migration has also been subject to restrictions, which has been unusual for the United States in recent decades. Trump raised the prices of visas for specialists, limited the receipt of green cards and limited quotas for refugees.

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• Trump also began to fight crime within the country using new methods for the country. He began to deploy National Guard troops to various cities and states, without coordinating these steps with local governors, which became a departure from the tradition adopted in the United States. In some cases, the deployment of troops was prevented by the courts, but in general they ceased to be an extraordinary event.

• Another deviation from the approach adopted in the United States was Trump's direct control of various independent agencies and departments, primarily the Department of Justice and the Federal Reserve System (FRS). Previous US presidents were tacitly forbidden to exert pressure and force departments to perform certain actions. Trump refused to comply with these traditional restrictions and thus managed to strengthen his executive power. At times, he also assumed the powers of Congress, as was the case with the liquidation of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), but he did not encounter resistance from Republican party members.