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- Abandonment of the primary: the purchasing power of the parent capital has halved in 10 years
Abandonment of the primary: the purchasing power of the parent capital has halved in 10 years
The purchasing power of maternity capital has halved in ten years. This conclusion was reached by the experts of the All-Russian Research Institute of Labor, whose research was reviewed by Izvestia. In 2015, an average of about 9 square meters could be purchased for a certificate. housing in the primary market, whereas in 2025 it will be less than 4 square meters. m. Payment remains one of the key measures of demographic policy, however, its effectiveness is decreasing against the background of rising housing prices. At the same time, there are other instruments of parental support in the Russian Federation, such as a family mortgage and a single allowance. About how the purchasing power of the maternity capital is changing and what additional measures can support families, see the Izvestia article.
How many square meters can I buy on matkapital
For Russian families, living conditions are one of the key factors in making a decision about having a child. In recent years, housing prices have become less affordable, so government assistance in its acquisition and improvement plays an important role both in demographic policy and in the social support system. And federal maternity capital, which remains the main measure of assistance to parents, is most often used specifically to buy an apartment.
However, since 2015, the purchasing power of the parent capital in terms of square meters has been declining, which is largely due to the situation in the housing market. In 10 years, the area of an apartment that could be purchased with a certificate has more than halved in the primary market, and by 35% in the secondary market compared to the peak of 2017. Such conclusions are contained in the article "Improving the housing conditions of families with children with the involvement of maternity capital: an analysis by regions of Russia" by Natalia Kolganova, a researcher at the All-Russian Research Institute of Labor, and Eldar Musin, a junior researcher at the Institute. The material was published in the latest issue of the All-Russian Research Institute of Labor "Social and Labor Research".
According to the authors' calculations, in 2015, on average, 8.7 square meters could be purchased for the mother capital in Russia. m of housing in a new building. At that time, the payment was 453 thousand rubles and was granted only at the birth of the second child — the right to maternity capital at the birth of the first child appeared only in 2020.
By the end of 2024, this figure had decreased to 3.6 square meters. m. At the same time, the size of the certificate was 630 thousand rubles for the first child and 833 thousand rubles for the second, if the family had not previously received a payment.
In 2025, about 3.5-4 square meters can be purchased at matkapital. more housing, said Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of the VMT Consult agency. According to Sberindex, by the end of the year, the average price per square meter in new buildings in the country reached 180 thousand rubles. The amount of the certificate is currently 690 thousand rubles for the first child and 912 thousand rubles for the second, if the payment has not been made before.
On the secondary market, a square meter costs about 120 thousand rubles on average, which allows you to purchase almost 6 square meters. m housing at the expense of the maternity capital for one child.
Why is the mother capital not enough to buy a home
The authors note that the effectiveness of the parent capital varies significantly by region. Thus, the largest housing area due to the payment can be purchased in Ingushetia — 11.2 square meters, and the smallest — in Moscow, where this figure is 1.8 square meters. In general, in 2024, in 31 regions of Russia, less than 5 square meters could be bought in a new building with the certificate.
— Apartments and rooms of such a small area are practically not being built today, therefore it is becoming more and more difficult to use the mother capital for real improvement of housing conditions, — said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. — In large cities, these funds are not enough even for the initial payment on a family mortgage, although a payment for two children could cover about half of such a contribution.
In fact, a certificate for two children allows you to only partially finance the purchase of housing in the regions with the lowest cost of real estate — for example, in Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia or Ingushetia, the expert says. In most regions of Russia, these funds are not enough to purchase a full-fledged apartment for a family, especially with two children, she added.
— Over the past ten years, housing prices have been rising faster than the parent capital has been indexed. This was due both to the rise in the cost of building materials and labor, and to the effect of preferential mortgage programs, which supported demand and accelerated price growth in the primary market. Among the secondary buildings, the dynamics was more restrained, which explains the less drastic reduction in the area of housing available for the amount of the certificate, — Ekaterina Kosareva emphasized.
As noted in the article, it is important to take into account the fact that buying a home often requires a mortgage, which not all families can take out and service. At the same time, as Vladimir Smirnov, Director General of the All-Russian Research Institute of Labor, told Izvestia, the materials published in the journal do not reflect the official position of the institute: all articles are of an author's nature and express solely the opinion of their authors.
How else can we support the birth rate in Russia
The rapid rise in housing prices really reduces the possibilities of the parent capital in buying an apartment, agrees Vladimir Smirnov, Director General of the All-Russian Research Institute of Labor. At the same time, at the time of the program's launch (2007), the certificate was actually the only demographic support measure.
Today, a comprehensive system of assistance to parents has been formed in the Russian Federation, the expert recalled. It includes a family mortgage (effective from 2018), payments upon the birth of a third child (starting in 2019), an increased tax deduction when buying a home, as well as regional maternity capitals and other instruments. Additionally, income—related measures are in place - a single benefit, a social contract and a new family payment, which will be effective from 2026.
The authors of the article conclude that regional support measures can compensate for the decrease in the effectiveness of the certificate. First of all, we are talking about maternity capital in individual regions. Such tools also include targeted payments for the purchase or construction of housing, as well as assistance in paying off mortgages.
The regional parent capital operates in many regions, including Moscow, St. Petersburg, the Belgorod and Voronezh regions, as well as the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District and the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, said Yulia Dolzhenkova, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the conditions of the programs vary significantly: in some regions, the amount of support does not exceed 100 thousand, in others it reaches 1 million — for example, in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District at the birth of a third child.
The introduction of a differentiated interest rate on a family mortgage could support the birth rate, especially at the birth of a second and third child. At the same time, it is important to maintain the preferential rate for parents with one child, for example, at about 8% per annum, and for others to reduce it to 4-6%, suggested Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global.
In addition, another long—term savings program can be launched, both for future retirees and for children. In this case, parents could optionally invest their mother's capital in profitable assets, and upon reaching the age of majority, the child could receive a certificate along with the accumulated income and dispose of the funds by sending them to study at a university or to buy an apartment, the expert noted.
To really support families and stimulate the birth rate, direct housing subsidies and linking government support to the real cost per square meter can also be introduced, says Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at Finam IC.
Non-residential mechanisms for increasing housing affordability, in particular social rental housing, are increasingly being discussed. However, such programs are poorly scalable and carry certain risks, said Alla Makarentseva, head of the laboratory at the Center for Demography, Migration and Labor Market Research at the Presidential Academy.
As Ekaterina Kosareva from VMT Consult emphasized, matkapital cannot be a quick incentive for fertility growth, but it reduces the long-term risks associated with having a child and creates a more stable motivation to expand the family. Its effect does not appear all at once, but over the horizon of several years.
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