The tail kills the dog: why the EU started talking about disintegration
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban predicts a bleak future for the European Union: according to him, "chaos reigns" in Brussels, and the union itself is moving towards disintegration. There are many reasons for alarm: the economy is stagnating, and the abandonment of Russian energy sources is further exacerbating the situation. It got to the point where German factories are moving production to other countries. The situation in Brussels today and who is to blame for it is in the Izvestia article.
The Hungarian Prophecy
"The European Union is currently in a state of disintegration. The process of disintegration is underway, which coincides with the strengthening of the imperial ambitions of the Brussels bureaucracy," said Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
According to him, the disintegration manifests itself primarily in the loss of manageability. Brussels makes decisions that then cease to be implemented at the national level: first one country ignores them, then two, then three. At the same time, according to him, the EU "constantly restricts the sovereignty of states," although it "does not have the opportunity to use its powers."
Unless there is a "rapid and profound reorganization," the Hungarian prime minister warned, the process of disintegration may reach the point of no return, after which the restoration of the union will become impossible.
Hungary consistently defends its own economic interests within the EU. Budapest blames Western sanctions for the collapse of the European economy. According to Orban, oil and gas prices have risen sharply in the EU because of them, and production is losing competitiveness on the world market.
These suspicions are supported by statistics. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has acknowledged a significant reduction in the EU's share of global GDP since the 1990s, from 25% to 14%. Overall, in 2024, GDP in the eurozone grew by 0.9%, and in the EU by 1.0%.
Strong economies are also suffering. In Germany, 196,100 enterprises closed last year, which is 16% more than in the previous year. The Mercedes-Benz concern has announced plans to transfer part of its production to the United States. And Volkswagen will move production of the Golf and Golf Variant models to Mexico starting in 2027.
Experts interviewed by Izvestia agree that the systemic crisis in the EU is becoming more and more obvious. And if Brussels does not go for a large-scale transformation, then Orban's warnings may well come true.
—Transformation is a moment that needs to be responded to in a timely and high—quality manner," Natalia Eremina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University, tells Izvestia. — If this does not happen, the system comes to the results that we have already seen in history. The example of the collapse of the USSR was also unexpected for many, although the transformation processes have been noticeable since the 1970s. This is a long-term, largely inertial process, but such processes, as a rule, always end the same way.
Brussels adventures
Most of the EU's problems are based on poor management decisions and the way Brussels has generally tried to respond to emerging challenges over the past ten years, explains Natalia Eremina.
— Large-scale programs were adopted, which often had neither sufficient scientific justification nor clear economic calculations. First of all, we are talking about the green transition and the digital agenda, the implementation of which was accompanied by extremely ambitious, and sometimes openly expansionist plans," the expert listed.
According to her, the migration crisis was not catastrophic in itself, but it also led to severe consequences due to Europe's unpreparedness to receive a large number of refugees.
A separate factor that experts interviewed by Izvestia point to is the expansion of the EU in 2004. Then the countries of the former USSR, including the Baltic states, joined his camp. This decision has seriously weakened Brussels, as the new members remain largely recipient countries.
— The problem is also that the European bureaucratic machine has allowed people from Eastern European countries to manage. For years, they have been preparing anti–Russian projects, resolutions of the European Parliament on "downgrading the status" of EU—Russia relations, and at the same time pushing anti-Chinese norms," political commentator Andrei Starikov said in an interview with Izvestia.
Today, according to him, the EU has a situation where "the tail is wagging the dog": the conflicting border states are beginning to shape the eastern policy of the entire European Union.
— The Ukrainian crisis was actively promoted during the Lithuanian presidency of the EU. The Vilnius summit and the discussion of Ukraine's European integration were actually transferred to the format of a tough choice "either with Russia or with the West." And so it is in almost everything," the specialist concluded.
As a result, today everything works on the principle of "roads and fools," the Izvestia interlocutor added: "roads" are the economy, infrastructure, energy, economic base, and only then the accompanying factors that finally end the situation.
Vague prospects
A way out of this situation is possible, but it will require serious efforts. As an example, experts cite Hungary, which openly breaks from the consensus and is ready to block unfavorable decisions for itself.
— This strategy can bring results. Already, some of the production leaving Germany is moving to Hungary, where stable energy supplies remain. Where there is energy, industry also remains," Eremina notes.
Experts agree: This has already led to the formation of different blocs and approaches within the EU. In particular, politicians who are ready to defend national interests harshly are gaining more and more popularity. The Alternative for Germany party is strengthening its position in Germany, Andrei Babis came to power in the Czech Republic, and Robert Fico resumed the post of prime minister in Slovakia.
What is happening in Brussels today can be described as a period close to the stage of half-life, Starikov also believes. And there may be a solution here: in order to unite, we must first separate. And then consolidate in some other form, on some new grounds.
— There are no "colossal" reforms in sight. Perhaps we are talking about a "core and peripheral" scenario or integration at different speeds. For example, if Italy, Germany and France are more closely integrated than the Baltic States or, for example, Portugal. But there is also a more radical way: first, disintegration, then reassembly on new grounds, the expert admits.
According to him, this is nothing new: such cycles occur all the time on the European continent. And in this sense, Orban's warning cannot be called groundless. But it's pointless to guess how long the modern cycle will take.
— There are too many factors: American, Ukrainian, economic, migration, security issues. We live in a situation of high uncertainty. When exactly the current structure will fail completely and in what form it will be reassembled, let them figure it out for themselves in Brussels," concluded Starikov.
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