Why Trump imposed a naval blockade on Venezuela. Analysis
The conflict between the United States and Venezuela has reached a new stage. US President Donald Trump has announced a naval blockade of the South American country, and the military has already detained three tankers with its oil. At the same time, the United States has not yet switched to active hostilities, fearing far-reaching consequences for itself. Why Washington chose the blockade and what it will lead to is in the Izvestia article.
What is Trump trying to achieve
• At first, Trump called the fight against drug trafficking his main goal with regard to Venezuela. Even during the election campaign, he promised to stop the influx of drugs into the United States and offered various ways to solve this problem. So, against China, Canada and Mexico, he began to impose trade duties so that they, for their part, would stop the illegal supply of fentanyl. In the case of Venezuela, such a threat would have had no effect, and Trump moved on to attacking ships suspected of drug smuggling.
• Later, Trump began to explicitly state that in addition to the fight against drugs, he was interested in another goal — the overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who has led the country since 2013. The head of the White House has already offered him to resign voluntarily, but he did not explain what should happen in Venezuela's political life next: whether elections should be held in the country, whether Maduro's supporters could remain in power, or whether they should be replaced by the opposition led by Nobel laureate Maria Corina Machado.
• After the idea of attacking boats with drug traffickers met with some resistance inside the United States, Trump switched to another tactic. On December 10, the US military and intelligence agencies seized the tanker Skipper with Venezuelan oil. In the following days, two more vessels were detained. Trump announced that he was setting up a full-fledged naval blockade that would target sanctioned tankers.
• Even before the naval blockade of Venezuela was organized, Trump announced the closure of the skies over it. However, this statement was not as threatening as it might have seemed at first glance. The US president only wrote on social media that the airspace should be considered closed. This statement was followed by neither an official decree nor specific actions on the part of the American Air Force. In response to Trump's remark, some congressmen only reminded that only the US Congress has the right to declare war on another country, that is, it is impossible to close the sky without its permission. At the same time, deportation flights from the United States to Venezuela continued to fly.
Why did Trump choose the naval blockade
• The decision to establish a naval blockade shows that Trump himself is not sure that it will be possible to overthrow Maduro by military means. Such an operation would be extremely difficult and would require enormous responsibility to authorize. Suffice it to say that Venezuela is one of the largest countries in the world, it surpasses Afghanistan and Iraq in area, where the United States has already sent troops this century. Military analysts note that the fighting in Venezuela will quickly take on the character of a guerrilla war, which the United States will not be able to win quickly.
• For this reason, Trump prefers to weaken Venezuela economically. It requires much less effort, does not cause the same rejection as real fighting, you can easily "sell" to American society and, in any case, present it as your own victory. Even if Maduro remains in power, the naval blockade can be declared successful, as it will cause economic and financial damage to Venezuela, while the United States will not suffer losses.
• Fighting in Venezuela would also be negatively perceived by the international community. Trump is trying to promote himself in the international arena as a peacemaker deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize. Obviously, it will no longer be possible to become its owner if you try to forcibly remove the recognized leader of another country. If during previous campaigns the United States managed to assemble entire coalitions and attract allies to participate in conflicts, now no country is rushing into battle after Trump. The only exceptions are a few island states in the Caribbean that help American troops with logistics, while not hiding their financial interest.
Last but not least, Trump is deterred by the proximity to Catholic Christmas and New Year's holidays. It would be especially unacceptable for South America to start hostilities at this time, so even those of Venezuela's neighbors who do not approve of its current system of government will be in solidarity with it. The United States risks losing relations with an entire region without gaining any benefits for itself.
What will be the result of the blockade?
• There is no reason to say that the oil blockade will certainly produce results and lead to Maduro's resignation. So far, the United States has detained only three tankers, and according to media reports, there are about 40 vessels in its territorial waters capable of transporting the country's main export product. Do not forget that Venezuelan oil is mainly destined for China. When this shortage becomes palpable for Beijing, the conflict will reach a new level, and Trump will have to deal with a much more serious rival.
• The United States may cause an economic crisis in Venezuela, but this will also not be the factor that will lead to a change of power. The country has long been experiencing constant difficulties in providing and meeting domestic needs, but this did not lead to Maduro's departure. The poor segments of the population who support the president will not become even poorer because of the actions of the United States, so that attitudes towards him will change.
Will Trump start fighting
At the same time, one cannot be sure that Trump has finally abandoned military action. The concentration of US naval forces continues in the Caribbean and the East Pacific. There are already enough of them to launch sensitive missile and bomb attacks on Venezuela's infrastructure on land. At the same time, the White House should understand that such tactics will not work against manufacturers and sellers of drugs. They cannot be hit from the outside, as they hide in the impenetrable forests of Venezuela, so even American intelligence will not be able to give an accurate tip.
• Venezuela itself does not have many real opportunities to respond to the United States in the current confrontation. A military response would untie the White House's hands and serve as an excuse for full-scale military action, which it has so far avoided. Caracas also has no economic leverage. However, Venezuela is able to hold its ground and stall for time until the White House itself changes its policy vector, as it happened more than once during Trump's second term.
• The expert community believes that Trump may well abandon the overthrow of Maduro if he goes to negotiations and accepts some of the conditions of the American leader. He may be satisfied with the Venezuelan president's refusal to partner with China and Russia, as well as the admission of American companies to oil fields. So far, Trump has not crossed a line after which he would lose all chances of concluding any deal with Maduro. Although his actions are aimed at undermining the Venezuelan economy, they are also designed to exert psychological pressure on Caracas, and therefore may be limited to this.
When writing the material, Izvestia communicated with:
- Nikolai Topornin, international lawyer, Director of the Center for European Information;
- Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Research at the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
