The economist named the reasons for the strengthening of the ruble

Candidate of Economic Sciences, financial expert Vladimir Grigoriev named on Tuesday, December 23, the reasons for the strengthening of the ruble's position. The current strengthening of the national currency is influenced by both fundamental and market factors, he believes.

On December 22, the dollar exchange rate as of December 23, 2025 was 79.3 rubles, RT reports. The euro fell to 92.8 rubles.

According to Grigoriev, Russia is now only partially present in the global financial system due to sanctions. In addition, a significant part of export earnings and import payments have been converted into rubles and a number of other currencies, he added.

"Therefore, the traditional dependence on the global financial system is less than it was. Therefore, the changes that are taking place on world markets have less impact on Russia than before the start of the CBO and even after the CBO, when not all sanctions have been imposed yet. This, in general, ensures a fairly strong position of the ruble," the economist explained in an interview with Lenta.Ru .

The expert also believes that the current strengthening of the ruble was influenced by positive news related to the talks between the special representatives of Russian and American presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.

"The meeting of our president's special representative [Kirill] Dmitriev in the United States with Trump's special representatives is not such a significant event, but since it was followed by positive comments from Dmitriev, the market is responding to this. The positive news led to the strengthening of the ruble, because it gives rise to a feeling among market participants that Russia and the United States have a chance to agree on something good," the economist concluded.

After the holidays: what is the expected inflation rate in early 2026

Experts assess the risks differently

Earlier that day, Spartak Sobolev, head of Alfa-Forex's investment strategy research department, told Izvestia that quotes were expected to fluctuate between 75.50–81.50 rubles per dollar, 89-95 rubles per euro, and 10.70–11.50 rubles per yuan this week.

On December 17, it was reported, according to the official Budget forecast of the Russian Federation, that the US dollar could rise to 133.1 rubles by 2042. The average annual exchange rate will be 92.2 rubles in 2026 and will gradually increase. According to Natalia Vashchelyuk, a senior analyst at the First Management Company, such long-term forecasts are often based on the difference in inflation and interest rates. Life.Ru .

On December 12, Alexander Grif, Chairman of the Committee on Digital Technological Sovereignty of the CIS, head of the Laboratory of Cognitive and Digital Sovereignty at the Moscow Institute of Economics, said that he did not expect significant fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate in January 2026 in the absence of new economic or political shocks. According to his estimates, the dollar will trade in the range of 77-80 rubles, the euro — 85-90 rubles, and the yuan — about 11 rubles. The ruble will be supported by high interest rates and the continued sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters, despite a possible decline in oil prices. Pravda.Ru .

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