The economist made forecasts for 2026

Specialist Alexey Zubets summed up the financial results of the Russian Federation and named forecasts for 2026.

In an interview with Radio 1 on Monday, December 22, he stressed that the Central Bank's high key interest rate and projected GDP growth of about 2% are not a crisis, but the current "norm" for the economy. In this way, he explained the relationship between high interest rates on loans, investments and long-term trends.

The economist called the decline in investment activity natural and explained that it is directly related to the current situation in the country. According to him, such dynamics are unpleasant, but objective and expected. He noted that the Bank of Russia restrains the money supply by maintaining a high key rate in order to prevent a surge in inflation: with a sharp reduction in the rate, funds could massively leave bank deposits on the market and overheat the economy.

The expert added that it is not worth counting on high growth rates — the level of 1.5–2% per year is considered normal for Russia. At the same time, he stressed that the economy remains stable: there is virtually no unemployment, real incomes are growing, and the majority of Russians are generally satisfied with their lives, which he called an important indicator of the effectiveness of economic policy.

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On December 19, economist Igor Balynin called the scenario of maintaining the key rate unlikely. According to him, since June, the Central Bank has consistently lowered the key rate, so it is unlikely that it will remain at 16.5% or fall below 15%, notes 360.ru .

On the same day, sociologist and economist Dmitry Alekseev admitted that the Russian economy will face moderate stagflation in 2026. According to his forecast, inflation will be 5-6%, the Central Bank's key rate will decrease, but will not fall below 10%, and the ruble exchange rate will remain relatively stable, the website writes kp.ru .

At the same time, the head of the central bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, said that the Central Bank did not intend to lower the key rate "in autopilot mode." She explained that the speed of monetary policy easing will depend on the sustainability of the slowdown in inflation and the dynamics of inflation expectations, writes RT. At the same time, Nabiullina stressed that stable low inflation remains the basis for moderate interest rates, predictable conditions for investment and welfare growth.

On December 11, economist Alexander Grif predicted the exchange rate of the dollar, euro and yuan in January 2026. According to him, there will be no sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate in January 2026. In the absence of new shocks, the ruble will remain stable. The dollar will be around 77-80 rubles, the euro — 85-90 rubles, the yuan — about 11 rubles.

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