Crisis direction: Kiev is losing ground amid weakening support
Kirill Dmitriev, the Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation, called the talks that began in Miami with representatives of the United States constructive. The purpose of the meeting is to get information about the latest "developments" of Americans with Europeans. At the same time, Washington is doing everything to persuade Kiev to sign a peace agreement, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Direct financing has already been discontinued, and the EU has not been able to agree on a reparative "loan" at the expense of Russian frozen assets following the summit. And while the Russian Federation and the United States are focused on finding a way to resolve the crisis, a number of issues of bilateral relations have receded into the background: Moscow and Washington have not yet scheduled a new meeting to eliminate irritants, the American embassy told Izvestia. However, contacts continue on all tracks. About how the process of Ukrainian regulation is progressing and who has become the main obstacle on the way to peace — in the material of Izvestia.
Negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement in Miami
The next round of discussions on the future peace agreement on Ukraine has moved to Miami. Kirill Dmitriev, the Special Representative of the President of Russia for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries, has already called the negotiations with representatives of the United States on this issue, which lasted for a couple of days, constructive. The American side was traditionally represented by special envoy of the US President Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. The Russian counterpart arrived in the United States on the evening of December 20, Moscow time.
US President's Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner
According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Kirill Dmitriev should receive information about the results of joint work between Washington and Brussels.
— Dmitriev should work for the reception. He needs to get information about what the Americans and Europeans have done. Then he will report this to the head of state," explained the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation.
Later, Steve Witkoff released a statement following the talks with the participation of the delegations of the United States, Europe and Ukraine, which took place there, in Florida. According to him, the representatives of Kiev discussed "the development of a 20-point plan, coordination of positions on the framework of multilateral security guarantees, coordination of positions on the framework of US security guarantees for Ukraine and further development of a plan for economic development and prosperity."
In early November, Donald Trump presented a 28-point peace plan for the Ukrainian settlement, which implied serious territorial and political concessions from Kiev. Subsequently, in particular, during the negotiations in Geneva, the document underwent significant changes, and the number of items in the list decreased. With the support of Brussels, Kiev, in fact, rejected the main element of the American initiative — territorial compromises.
With the active participation of the Europeans, the parties worked on an updated version of the "peace agreement." Recently it became known that representatives of the United States and the EU in Berlin approved two documents that set out security guarantees for Kiev. According to sources in The New York Times, the first condition was to reduce the number of Ukrainian Armed Forces from 900,000 to 800,000 people in peacetime, as well as strengthen the Ukrainian army with the support of the EU and the United States. However, all sorts of adjustments to the peace plan do not add anything good, said Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov.
— This is not a forecast. I am sure that the proposals that the Europeans and Ukrainians have made or are trying to make definitely do not improve the document and do not improve the opportunity to achieve long—term peace," he said.
In addition, a possible trilateral meeting of representatives of the United States, Russia and Ukraine is not being worked out, Ushakov said. Moscow has not seen any new documents on a peaceful settlement.
Positions of the USA, EU and Ukraine on the peace treaty
However, now the United States is doing everything to persuade Kiev to sign a peace agreement, Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, tells Izvestia.
— But it is obvious that the final conditions will develop when Russian troops liberate even more new territories. Then it will become obvious that the loss of territories is inevitable, and the collapse of the front and even the Ukrainian state is possible. Then, probably, the Kiev elite will agree to these agreements," the expert believes.
Meanwhile, Zelensky's line of conduct seems to be increasingly irritating Trump. In November, Washington even stopped direct financing of the conflict in Ukraine. But it is important to emphasize here: at the same time, the United States continues to send or sell large amounts of weapons to NATO countries, which are then received by the same Armed Forces.
Despite the fact that the Americans are accelerating the negotiation process, it is not worth waiting for significant concessions from Kiev - at least as long as it receives at least some support from Europe, Bezpalko is sure. On December 18-19, an EU summit was held in Brussels, where participants planned to agree on a so-called "reparation loan" for Ukraine secured by frozen Russian assets. However, this goal was not achieved, and Kiev received only a "consolation" prize of € 90 billion - this is hardly enough to cover the budget deficit for the next two years, and for a large-scale purchase of weapons.
The failed summit was another confirmation that discord and fatigue from the Ukrainian conflict are intensifying within the EU, and there is no unified strategy to end it. As a result, this will directly affect the prospects for a settlement, Verkhovna Rada deputy Artyom Dmitruk told Izvestia.
— The lack of clear and consolidated decisions on the part of the EU weakens Kiev, intensifies the internal crisis and makes it inevitable to move to finding other forms of settlement — no longer on the terms of the Ukrainian government, but based on new political realities. In other words, the failure of the summit is a signal that the previous support model has exhausted itself, and the settlement process will develop in a different configuration and with other actors," he said.
Subsequently, Zelensky made an unexpected statement, allowing the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbass - which, in fact, is what the United States and Russia are demanding from Kiev. "The possible withdrawal of troops should be mirrored — Ukraine is withdrawing as much as Russia. A free economic zone — there can be no heavy weapons, there can be no troops," he said.
By the way, a similar scenario has already been allowed in the Russian Federation. "It is quite possible that there will be no troops there directly, neither Russian nor Ukrainian. Yes, but there will be the Rosgvardiya, there will be our police, there will be everything that is needed to maintain order and organize life," said Yuri Ushakov.
Other contacts between Moscow and Washington
Kirill Dmitriev is coming to the United States not only through the Ukrainian settlement. After his visit in late October, for example, he announced preparations for a meeting of American congressmen with representatives of the Russian State Duma. Joint projects were also discussed, in particular, the construction of a bridge between Russia and the United States under the Bering Strait. Of course, the normalization of bilateral relations remains one of the pressing issues for the two powers.
In late November, the Russian Foreign Ministry reported that the parties were in regular contact on the normalization of bilateral relations. "Currently, cooperation on "irritants" is proceeding through a working-level diplomatic channel agreed with the American side in the interests of finding mutually acceptable "solutions" in specific areas, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov previously told Izvestia.
Nevertheless, the Ukrainian settlement has now obviously come to the fore. The US Embassy in Russia told Izvestia that the parties had not scheduled a new meeting on irritants.
"The United States considers the channel of bilateral operations as a constructive and permanent platform for negotiations to stabilize the work of our missions," the embassy said. — Currently, no upcoming negotiations in this format are planned.
Since the beginning of the dialogue between Russia and the United States after Donald Trump came to power, two rounds of such consultations have already taken place. The meetings in Istanbul on February 27 and April 10 gave grounds for optimism and hope for the continuation of constructive negotiations, but for more than six months there has been no specific information about a new one. At first, the Russian side talked about a possible round in June and even in Moscow, but later the dates were shifted to autumn. It was reported that the next stage was planned for the end of October or the beginning of November.
Police officers at the entrance to the Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul on the eve of negotiations between the delegations of Russia and Ukraine, February 15
At the same time, the parties managed to make progress in financing the work of embassies and issuing diplomatic visas. But the same issue of tourist visas remains unresolved. There is also no progress on air travel. Russian Ambassador to the United States Alexander Darchiev noted that the US State Department categorically refuses to negotiate the return of Russian diplomatic property: American intelligence agencies do not allow Russian diplomats to access real estate without any legal grounds.
The parties have another important track for cooperation: arms control, including nuclear ones. Earlier, Trump said he would like to hold a meeting on denuclearization with Russia and China. At the same time, Washington has not yet responded to Moscow's initiative to adhere to the START Treaty restrictions for another year, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov said recently. Recall that this agreement expires in February of the coming year.
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