The expert predicted the situation on the oil market in 2026

Forecasts of oil supply on the world market for 2026 may be adjusted downward. Evgeny Smirnov, Doctor of Economics, Head of the Department of World Economy and International Economic Relations at the State University of Management, did not rule out this option in a conversation with Izvestia.

Prices in the new year are unlikely to be under pressure from the oversupply of oil on the world market, he is confident. Because the surplus that has been there lately is easily smoothed out.

"The mechanism within OPEC+ allows you to adjust oil production, reducing it during periods of oversupply," the expert believes.

The economist considers the arguments that global oil demand is expected to peak in the coming years, and then it will decrease as the climate agenda is implemented and the global electric vehicle market develops, to be erroneous.

"The desire of countries to be carbon neutral has already led to a decrease in investment in oil exploration and production, but today it is obvious that even in many developed countries, the decarbonization of the economy is hampered by a number of structural problems and limited fiscal space. Thus, peak oil demand is unlikely to be reached in the coming years, and many countries will continue to "take away" excess supply," the source explains.

In turn, Russian oil exports will be under pressure amid expectations of new sanctions against the Russian shadow tanker fleet, Smirnov said. Restrictions immediately after their introduction do lead to a reduction in supplies. However, as we adapt to the restrictions, the volume of exports will recover again.

The slowdown in supply growth in the global oil market as a whole is in the hands of Russian exporters, the expert is convinced.

"Given the growing global supply glut, we are always ready to provide flexible discounts to our oil buyers. It is no coincidence in this regard that Russia, even when faced with a decline in its oil exports, continues to maintain its production at a stable level," he emphasizes.

Read more about what will happen to the oil market in 2026 in the Izvestia article.

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