Darkness at the end of the tunnel: why Transnistria is facing a new energy crisis
The Transnistrian authorities have imposed a state of emergency due to gas shortages. European banks are delaying fuel payments, so there have been disruptions. Industrial enterprises of the republic remained on starvation rations, there are enough reserves only to meet the needs of the population. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Crisis on schedule
On December 18, the Supreme Council of Pridnestrovie declared a state of emergency in the republic. This is the third such case in history. Previously, similar measures were in effect in the PMR for several months in 2022-2023 and from December 2024 to August 2025. Each time, the reasons were gas shortages and related social problems.
The decision of the Pridnestrovian Parliament this time emphasizes that during the state of emergency, the priority will be the domestic and humanitarian needs of the republic's residents. "First of all, measures aimed at preserving the life and health of citizens will be funded," the Supreme Council said in a statement.
Earlier, the President of the PMR Vadim Krasnoselsky took the initiative to introduce a state of emergency, explaining that European banks had "slowed down the pace of settlement operations," meaning they were delaying payments, which caused fuel supply disruptions. In such conditions, it was decided to limit the work of industrial enterprises in the republic, reserves will be spent only on meeting the needs of the population.
Krasnoselsky noted that Tiraspol is doing everything necessary to restore the normal supply regime. "Everything is being solved, all government authorities are constantly thinking about people, about how to ensure a normal life. But don't get me wrong, it's not an easy time right now. Everything that happens around us has an absolute impact on energy, the economy and other areas," he stressed.
Boilers instead of pipes
Russian gas in Transnistria has been transported through the territory of Ukraine for 30 years. Thanks to cheap fuel, tariffs in the PMR were several times lower than in neighboring Moldova, the budget was replenished, and the Soviet industrial giants were kept afloat. It is also important that against this background, the level of gasification reached almost 100%, and little other energy sources were used.
In January 2025, the contract for pumping Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine ceased to operate, as a result, Transnistria instantly found itself in a situation of severe energy crisis. Industrial enterprises stood down, most schools and kindergartens were closed, residential buildings were left without heating and hot water, and electricity appeared sporadically.
The republic's leadership began to look for a solution to the problem. As a result, a month after the crisis began, a complex scheme was agreed upon: Russia transfers money to companies from the UAE, who pay to the Hungarian MET concern, which, through the mediation of Moldovagaz, supplies fuel to end users in the PMR. This combination makes it possible to circumvent numerous sanctions restrictions.
As a result, the most acute problems with the provision of the population have been solved. The difficulties remained. Firstly, according to this scheme, Pridnestrovie receives only 3 million cubic meters of gas per day — this is enough to cover the needs of households, but very little for the operation of industrial enterprises.
Secondly, there is a lack of long-term planning. The fact is that European banks allow payments only for short periods of 10-30 days, they check each payment for compliance with the sanctions legislation. In such conditions, transfers are sometimes delayed, and each such episode leads to a new round of energy crisis in the unrecognized republic.
As a result, the situation in the republic has periodically worsened throughout the year. So, in June, alarm bells sounded in Tiraspol due to the downtime of industrial enterprises and the collapse of the economy. In October, resource-saving mode was introduced again, and hot water was then supplied on schedule again. "The technical design of supplies requires time and considerable effort from a large number of participants every time," complained President Vadim Krasnoselsky.
Macroeconomic indicators also indicated a deep crisis. In January-November 2025, the PMR's foreign trade turnover decreased by 30%, and exports by 42%. Sergey Obolonik, the Minister of Economic Development of the Republic, predicted that by the end of 2025, industrial production would decline by 30%, GDP would fall by 12%, and inflation would reach 16%. In October, the authorities had to adjust the budget: the revenue side was cut by 290 million local rubles.
With the approach of this winter, the situation has become even more difficult. The head of the Pridnestrovian government, Alexander Rosenberg, called for strict gas savings, and solid fuel boilers were installed in schools and kindergartens to reduce the consumption of blue fuel. Finally, in December, the republic began to save on lighting roads due to a shortage of electricity.
Forecasts for 2026 are also alarming. The budget approved by the Supreme Council of the PMR includes a deficit of 2.7 billion local rubles. According to officials, taxes will have to be raised and funding for some government programs will have to be cut. "All our efforts are aimed at preserving socially protected articles, that is, the payment of salaries, allowances and pensions," noted Parliament Speaker Tatiana Zalevskaya.
Under the cover of cold weather
Natalia Kharitonova, Chief Researcher at the Russian State University of Economics, Doctor of Political Sciences, believes that this winter the energy crisis in Transnistria may reach last year's scale.
— The main problem is that gas supply contracts are short-term, that is, there is a constant threat of disruption of the agreements. The onset of cold weather and the approach of the New Year add to the nervousness, because everyone remembers how last winter everything turned off literally on New Year's Eve," she notes.
The expert adds that Moldova is sending clear signals about its readiness to continue its policy of economic and energy strangulation.
— The new Prime Minister of Moldova, Alexandre Munteanu, who is closely connected with Ukraine, says that he sees no prospects for resuming the negotiation process with Transnistria. In such circumstances, I do not rule out that a large-scale and protracted energy crisis may break out in the unrecognized republic again. Perhaps the Moldovan side was specifically waiting for the cold season to increase pressure on Tiraspol," she emphasizes.
Moldovan political analyst Alexander Korinenko also believes that a severe energy crisis may break out in Transnistria this winter.
— It is objectively difficult for Russia to pay for gas for the republic. The scheme turned out to be multi-part, each payment and the intermediary company are scrupulously checked. I note that the main difficulties arise every time during the cold season, when residents of the PMR are particularly vulnerable. Officials talk about technical difficulties, but there are suspicions that there is actually a political will to create problems," he argues.
Sergei Chizhov, a deputy of the Russian State Duma from the United Russia party, urges residents of the republic to remain calm and calm.
— Russia remains a reliable partner of Pridnestrovie. We, the deputies of the State Duma, are in constant interaction with our colleagues in Tiraspol, while the official Chisinau continues its policy of economic pressure. Be sure that Russia will always be there to help overcome the challenges that arise," he says.
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