The "sotochka" will roll in: what will be the dollar exchange rate in 2026

According to analysts, the easing of the PREP by the Bank of Russia, low oil prices and the dynamics of the use of funds from the National Welfare Fund will lead to a fall in the ruble exchange rate to the level of 90-100 rubles per US dollar in 2026. Details and expert opinions are available in the Izvestia article.

Results of the year

In 2025, the ruble turned out to be significantly stronger than previously predicted. For example, according to a macroeconomic survey conducted by the Bank of Russia at the beginning of last year, the forecast for the dollar-ruble exchange rate for an average of 2025 was around 104.7 rubles, in the middle of the year the median estimate shifted to 87-90 rubles. And according to the latest survey, the average dollar exchange rate is expected to be around 85 rubles.

— The main thing is the restrictive monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, high volumes of currency sales by exporters, as well as a change in the structure of payments for export—import operations (at the beginning of the year, the share of the ruble in the export structure was about 44%, and by the end of the year of the third quarter increased to almost 60%; the share of the ruble in the import structure changed not so much, but it also increased from 51% to 55%). As a result, the demand for foreign currency has decreased," says Alexander Potavin, an analyst at Finam Financial Group.

The expert also drew attention to the reduction in the number of channels for cross-border payments.

— By autumn, there were almost no banks left in the country that could carry out foreign trade operations in dollars and euros. Therefore, the outflow of capital from the country has almost stopped and a lot of currency has accumulated in the internal circuit. This strengthened the ruble exchange rate to 76-78 rubles by December, which is the highest for the Russian currency in 2.5 years," he says.

Analysts talked about the "re-strengthening" of the ruble throughout 2025. According to media reports, the fair dollar exchange rate is 90-100 rubles.

— The Ministry of Finance significantly loses revenue to the budget. Nevertheless, the Bank of Russia has abandoned the practice of targeting for a very long time and does not plan to return, while maintaining the market-based behavior of the exchange rate. Now Russia has a controlled floating of the ruble exchange rate with elements of currency control and budget rules," Potavin stressed.

According to him, the ruble exchange rate became noticeably less marketable when free trading in dollars, euros and other leading world currencies stopped on the Moscow Stock Exchange. Currently, only the Chinese yuan is actively trading there, the analyst points out.

— In order to maintain the exchange rate against an unfavorable external background, we need very large and stable foreign exchange reserves. Not all of the world's leading central banks can afford it, because in times of crisis, you can quickly burn the liquid part of gold reserves," he continues. — Plus, the hard exchange rate of the national currency often becomes non-marketable over time, and this almost always leads to the emergence of a parallel "gray" market with a different exchange rate.

What will affect the ruble exchange rate in 2026

The experts interviewed by Izvestia identified three groups of factors that will determine the trajectory of the ruble over the next year: external, internal economic and geopolitical.

Alexander Potavin refers to the first group of prices for oil and other raw materials supplied by Russia to foreign markets, external sanctions and prohibitions, restrictions on logistics and insurance. The dynamics of the ruble may also be influenced by trends in the global economy and the policy rates of the world's leading central banks (the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, the People's Bank of China).

Among the internal issues, the expert named fiscal policy and the deficit, the dynamics of the Central Bank's rate (lowering the rate with high inflation and risks will lead to an outflow of ruble assets, which will increase demand for foreign currency and put pressure on the ruble exchange rate), a change in the budget rule (if the Ministry of Finance increases purchases of foreign currency at high oil prices, this may weaken the ruble) capital flow control (stricter restrictions on money withdrawal will strengthen the ruble and vice versa).

— At the same time, the geopolitical factor should be kept in mind. In particular, the de-escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, which will lead to a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium, possible partial easing of sanctions, improved logistics and conditions for foreign trade. On the contrary, the new sanctions reduce export earnings and revenues, increase the demand for cash and "gray" payment schemes, he believes.

It is almost impossible to predict changes in geopolitical realities now, and it is illogical to include them in economic forecasts from the point of view of stable prerequisites, Alexander Abramov, head of the laboratory for the analysis of institutions and financial markets at the Presidential Academy, is convinced.

— In our opinion, there will be no serious grounds for weakening the ruble exchange rate to 100 rubles per dollar by the end of this year or in 2026.

The expert explains his position by saying that the flow of foreign exchange earnings to the country remains in one form or another, while the import potential remains at a very low level.

"In addition, the key rate of the Bank of Russia is likely to remain elevated, which will encourage, among others, exporters to convert foreign exchange earnings into rubles and receive ruble income from investing these funds," he believes.

Oil prices are what will determine the ruble exchange rate for the next year, Yulia Makarenko, Deputy director of the Banking Institute for Development, is convinced.

— Russia's dependence on oil revenues is still high. According to official data, the budget deficit in 2025 will amount to 5.74 trillion rubles. Most of it is lost revenue from oil sales, mainly due to sanctions and low oil prices," she says.

According to the financier, with a budget deficit, the tax service, in particular, is beginning to more zealously check businesses and impose additional taxes, and the importance of developing non—oil and gas exports is growing, which also requires cheap money to develop.

"As a result, lowering the key interest rate is a way to weaken the ruble, reduce the hole in the budget and at the same time reduce dependence on the oil needle," Makarenko concludes.

A new currency corridor

The interlocutors of the publication differed in their estimates of how the ruble exchange rate curve will look on the trading charts.

Pressure on the ruble exchange rate on the foreign exchange market is now exerted by expectations of a reduction in the key rate by the regulator, said Alexander Schneiderman, head of Alfa-Forex's sales and customer support department.

— The main support for the ruble continues to come from the increased supply of foreign currency due to the stability of the country's trade surplus. Thus, the dollar—ruble exchange rate has expanded the medium-term fluctuation range to 75-85 rubles, which is likely to welcome the New Year," he added.

And according to the forecasts of FG Finam, the average dollar exchange rate in the coming year will be lower — about 85 rubles, with a weakening to 92 rubles by the end of 2026.

— In such a situation, the strengthening of the ruble (up to 65-70 rubles per dollar) or the rapid depreciation of the ruble (up to 105-110 rubles per dollar) can be stressful for the Russian economy, — he stipulates.

Yulia Makarenko expects to establish a trading range in the range of 85-95 rubles in 2026.
The inflation factor

The operational information of the Bank of Russia, based on the results of the inFOM study on inflation expectations and consumer sentiment, shows that in December, the population's inflation expectations continued to grow. The median estimate of inflation expected in 12 months rose from 13.3% to 13.7% (the highest since February), while the median estimate of inflation observed over the past 12 months remained unchanged from November and remained at 14.5%.

Meanwhile, business price expectations also continued to rise in December, for the third month in a row, according to the Bank of Russia's operational report on monitoring results. The values increased from 22.8 points to 25 points, and this is the maximum since the fourth quarter of 2024. Nevertheless, current estimates of price growth by enterprises have slowed down, as in November, says Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam.

— Thus, despite the slowdown in inflation, the inflation expectations of the population and businesses continued to grow, with expected inflation now exceeding the average level of 2024. This is due to those "one—time" pro-inflationary factors at the turn of 2025-2026, which the Central Bank warned about," she says.

According to the analyst, high and unshored inflation expectations of the population and businesses are a problem for the DKP, since, as explained by the Central Bank, enterprises, credit organizations and households make decisions about consumption, savings and investments, set prices of goods and rates on loans and deposits, including based on their expectations regarding future inflation.

— These decisions have a significant impact on future stable inflation, so the Central Bank links further decisions on the key rate with the sustainability of the slowdown in inflation and the dynamics of inflation expectations. High (and still increasing) inflation expectations limit the space for lowering the key rate," Belenkaya sums up.

And what about the "key"

The time has come to ease monetary conditions, the experts surveyed agree. According to Rosstat, November inflation was 6.6%, which is lower than the forecast of 7.5% updated by the Ministry of Economy.

The next meeting of the Bank of Russia, which will determine the monetary policy for the beginning of next year, will be held on December 19.

According to Alexander Schneiderman, the regulator will have more room to reduce the key rate than last month, in the range of 1%-1.5%.

— The decision will be influenced primarily by data on consumer price growth for December. While maintaining the level in annual terms at below 7%, conditions are created for lowering the key rate," he says.

Financier Yulia Makarenko's forecast is more restrained: the rate will either be maintained at the current level or reduced by no more than 1 percentage point due to the influence of pro—inflationary factors. Alexander Abramov agrees with the assessment of reducing the key rate to 15.5%.

Dmitry Kulikov, Senior Director of the ACRA Group of Sovereign and Regional Ratings, sees a possible rate cut of 4-5 percentage points over the next 1 year.