Catch a wave: how to save schools with a small number of students
The Ministry of Education considers it an important task to preserve the material and technical base in schools, despite the demographic trends of the coming years," said Deputy Minister Alexander Bugaev. The trends are such that in 2025, the minimum number of first-graders in the last 10 years entered the first grade, and the decline will continue in the coming years.: The country is in a period of declining fertility. Izvestia figured out how to use the years when there will be few children in the country to preserve and increase the material school base.
Why is the number of children in schools decreasing
At a meeting in the Federation Council Committee on Social Policy, Deputy Head of the Ministry of Education Alexander Bugaev stressed that the ministry understands how much the number of children in school will decrease in the coming years: the demographic trend of the coming years has already been calculated. However, this should not lead to a reduction in the material and technical base in educational institutions, which has been created in recent years.
"For us, this should not be an indicator that the programs of major repairs and the construction of new educational institutions should be curtailed. And, God forbid, educational institutions that have already been created or renovated will be redesigned," said Alexander Bugaev.
He called the demographic decline a temporary phenomenon, noting that the education system "must preserve everything that exists now."
Lyubov Dukhanina, Chairman of the Council for Professional Qualifications in Education, member of the National Council for Professional Qualifications under the President of the Russian Federation, called this position absolutely correct.
— The demographic crisis is a temporary phenomenon, and the school is being built for decades. It should be understood that the school construction program has been developed and implemented for more than one year. Funds are being sought, agreements are being concluded with the regions, then construction, equipment, and the creation of a teaching staff. It is impossible to stop the process, which has been gaining momentum for so long," the Izvestia interlocutor emphasized.
The Ministry of Education, in response to a request from Izvestia, stated that, according to the national project "Youth and Children", it is planned to build 150 new schools in regions where there is a shortage of places in educational institutions. Their list has already been formed and approved.
At the same time, the ministry did not announce its position in response to a question about the possibility of a new wave of optimization, consolidation and closure of schools, especially in small towns, due to the reduction in the number of students.
When will the birth rate decline end?
Sergey Rybalchenko, Chairman of the Public Chamber's commission on Demography, protection of family, children and traditional family values, notes that the country is currently at the peak of the number of schoolchildren — there are about 18 million. Gradually, their number will decrease.
This year, 1.5 million first-graders came to schools. This is the minimum number of them over the past 10 years, but, apparently, the maximum in the coming years. The fact is that in 2025, mostly children born in 2018 went to schools. Around this time, a new demographic pit began: a small generation of the mid-1990s entered childbearing age. And if in 2014 (these are the current 4th-5th graders) 1,940 million people were born, then in 2018 - 1,604 million, in 2019 — 1,481 million. In 2023— it is already only 1.264 million.
The president of the organization "For Life!", demographer Sergey Chesnokov noted that the most "narrow democratic throat" will be in 2030-2035, when the decline in the birth rate will reach the bottom and the rise will begin.
"If the lowest birth rate is in 2030-2035, then, accordingly, there will be fewer children in schools in the late 2030s and early 2040s," the source told Izvestia.
He stressed that this period can be passed in different ways: if the right measures are taken in demographic policy, the country can get out of the demographic hole sooner.
— About 20 trillion rubles have now been allocated for solving the demographic problem over the next five years. If the state allocates such funds, then this problem is a priority. Sooner or later, the situation will be reversed," Sergey Chesnokov is sure.
Should we wait for schools to close
Lyubov Dukhanina notes that Russia has already gone through the process of closing schools due to the demographic pit.
— And there were no special savings: schools were closed, buildings were transferred to someone for management or ownership, and years later the search for funds for the construction of new school buildings began, — she says.
Since 2019, 1,634 schools with more than 1 million places have been built, but even with this condition, there are still many schools in disrepair in the country: 17.9 thousand out of almost 68.5 thousand buildings require major repairs, and 510 are in disrepair, Lyubov Dukhanina noted.
Irina Abankina, a professor at the HSE Institute of Education, calls the pace of school renovation and new construction low. She explains that as soon as money for development appeared after the 1990s, a period of low student numbers began in schools. The proportion of small schools was very high, and there was also an active outflow of people from rural areas. At the same time, the authorities, anticipating a rise in the birth rate, invested a lot in kindergartens.: both in the construction and in the return of buildings that were transferred to other needs. And schools have fallen by the wayside, and their modernization has lagged behind the pace of the demographic wave.
Sergey Rybalchenko calls the closure of rural schools one of the biggest mistakes made earlier — after that, villages and villages themselves emptied. Sergey Chesnokov adds that the closure of paramedic stations also works in the same way.
— At the level of individual regional ministries, this is happening now, so, for example, maternity hospitals in regional centers are closing, — said Sergey Chesnokov. — The situation is contradictory, although in general there is a feeling that the Russian authorities have begun to approach the issue more systematically.
Boris Ilyukhin, a senior researcher at the Center for Economics of Continuing Education at the Presidential Academy, noted that in rural areas, schools very often become the center of all public life.: It houses a museum, a library, and additional education.
— The number of schools is constantly decreasing, but in many ways the reason is not the closure, but the reorganization. Some rural schools are becoming branches of larger ones. There will be no mass closure due to a decrease in the birth rate," Boris Ilyukhin told Izvestia.
According to him, it is also important to take into account migration, due to which the number of children is increasing in some regions, while in others, on the contrary, it is falling faster.
How to use Demographic pit time
Lyudmila Dukhanina emphasizes that it is important to act very carefully in a situation of demographic crisis. This is not a reason to reduce funding for the education system, which is already "chronically underfunded" and teachers are overloaded.
— On the contrary, this is a reason to revise the standard of funding per pupil upward and bring it to the really necessary values. Teachers will have the opportunity to work in more comfortable conditions, devote more time to children, improve the quality of education, and individualize the educational process. And managers will be able to develop the educational environment," she noted.
Sergey Rybalchenko notes that the time of the demographic pit is an opportunity to significantly increase the quality of education and the educational environment. According to him, it is during this period that it is necessary to create a "school of the future" that will meet the challenges of the new era.
He also calls for taking advantage of the time and reviewing the standards for the number of students in classes. Now, according to the new SanPiN, the number of children is regulated by square meters of classrooms, however, Sergey Rybalchenko believes, it is necessary to return to a system that takes into account the number of students in one class.
Irina Abankina agrees: during the last demographic wave, classroom occupancy in schools significantly exceeded the recommended 25 people — now 35 children can study in one class. According to her, the situation is particularly difficult in the republics of the North Caucasus.
— Therefore, where possible, it is worth returning to the maximum occupancy of 25 people per class. There has been a lot of talk about this: when there are too many children, their concentration decreases and their fatigue increases. This is especially true for elementary schools, where a more intimate environment is needed," she said.
According to Irina Abankina, it is also important to develop school projects for small groups and for children of different ages. The infrastructure of schools in rural areas should perform other social functions and even be mobile — that is, "collapse" in case of its lack of demand and move to where it is needed. Where there is an outflow of population, such modern mobile projects are especially needed, but so far there are few of them.
— It is also necessary to reduce the number of second shifts, of which there are still quite a lot in the regions. Therefore, new schools will not be superfluous at all: on the contrary, they will provide a new vector for the development of general education," added Sergey Rybalchenko.
Another area that also needs to be looked at is the possibility of combining kindergartens with primary schools. This solution will create an educational space for younger children, and it will not include the boundaries of transition between preschool education and primary school.
Irina Abankina, however, notes that the burden will largely fall on municipalities, rather than on the state, since so far the vast majority of schools are owned by municipalities.
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