The Ottoman Flying Chair: The United States demands that Turkey abandon the S-400
Ankara may return to the American F-35 fighter program. To do this, Turkey needs to abandon the Russian S-400 long-range and medium-range anti-aircraft missile system. The authorities of the republic, accustomed to sitting on two chairs, are increasingly being asked to make their choice. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Everything is decided for you
"The United States is negotiating with Turkey on its possible return to the F-35 program and the availability of the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile system. In accordance with American law, Turkey must abandon the operation of the S-400 system in order to restore its participation in the F-35 program," said Tom Barrack, the American ambassador to Turkey and special representative of the US president for Syria.
S-400 anti-aircraft missile system
According to the head of the diplomatic mission, the positive relations between Presidents Trump and Erdogan "have created a new atmosphere of cooperation," within which the most productive discussions on this topic over the past decade are taking place.
"We hope that in the coming months these negotiations will lead to a breakthrough solution that meets the security interests of both the United States and Turkey," the diplomat added.
Speaking earlier in the UAE, Barrack said that Turkey is not currently using the S-400 purchased from Russia. In this regard, as the ambassador stated, the republic is going to abandon this technique. In his opinion, these issues will be resolved within the next four to six months.
The media immediately began discussing the possibility of dismantling the air defense system and the potential transfer of the S-400 to third countries. Subsequently, Turkish publications, citing sources in the military, reported that under no circumstances would they consider the possibility of transferring the systems to other states.
The Turkish Defense Ministry has also repeatedly stated that "there are no changes in approaches to the S-400." Bloomberg, citing sources, reported that Ankara is ready to agree to form a "joint military mechanism" with Washington to monitor the use of the S-400.
Exemplary partners
For a long time, the Turks called Ankara's relations with Washington an exemplary partnership, although disagreements arose from time to time between the parties. The first serious conflict broke out in 1974, when the Turkish army launched a military campaign in Cyprus. In 2003, Ankara refused to support the United States in the war with Iraq. After that, the Americans condemned the actions of the Turkish authorities during the thousands of protests that rocked Turkey in the summer of 2013.
However, the most serious escalation of relations was in 2017, when the Republic of Turkey acquired four divisions of S-400 air defense systems from Russia at a cost of $2.5 billion. This decision caused fury in the United States, since Turkey is a member of NATO, and in the North Atlantic Alliance all weapons systems must work according to a single — in fact, American — standard.
Washington, considering Ankara's actions a blow to the cohesion of the alliance, excluded it from the US program to create a new generation of F-35 fighter jets. Turkey, which paid for the first batch of fighters, has not yet received them. In addition, Ankara is subject to the Law on Countering America's Enemies through Sanctions (CAATSA).
The US Air Force F-35 fighter jet
Ankara hoped that it would be possible to normalize relations during the visit of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Washington, which took place at the end of September. Although the Turkish authorities declare a "new chapter in relations with Washington," little was achieved then.
NTV Haber correspondent Hussein Gunay described these talks most eloquently behind the scenes at the White House. The AP agency accidentally recorded his words: "This meeting did not bring us anything concrete. We got it, but only by the cap."
Turkey has made concessions by lifting additional tariffs on a number of U.S. goods that were imposed in response to the American measures, including cars, fruits, rice, tobacco, alcohol, solid fuels, and chemical products.
Following the meeting, Erdogan agreed to purchase American LNG for the next 20 years and sign an agreement on nuclear and technical cooperation. No concrete results could be achieved on the exclusion from CAATSA, as the American leader referred to great obstacles from Congress, which also blocked the sale of engines for KAAN jet fighters by the United States, which Turkey insists on receiving.
In addition, Trump stressed that Ankara still has "something to do" to get concessions from the United States on the F-35. The American leader did not speak directly about what he was talking about. But experts agreed that we are talking about the abandonment of the Russian S-400. Washington would also like to achieve greater loyalty from Ankara on various foreign policy issues.
As a result of the negotiations, Turkey received a deal between Turkish Airlines and the American Boeing Corporation. The parties agreed to purchase 225 aircraft by Ankara: 150 of them are 737-8/10 MAX models and 75 Dreamliner family aircraft (B787–9 and B787–10).
We need to make a choice
Vladimir Avatkov, head of the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS, explained to Izvestia that Ankara, "as it often happens lately, has found itself at a crossroads."
— Relations between Turkey and the United States have changed the vector, and if earlier, when Ankara was the right hand of the North Atlantic Alliance, it shared the approaches and views of the Americans, now their "exemplary partnership" is more forced, — the political scientist believes.
The expert stressed that not only the relations between the two countries are at stake, but also the future of Turkey itself. Despite the pressure, Ankara has not yet abandoned the S-400, but at the same time it does not want to reduce its cooperation with the United States.
— The Americans need to either completely subjugate Turkey, or make it part of the "arc of instability." Washington does not need Ankara as an independent and strong player. But at the same time, they are ready to put up with it as long as it at least partially fulfills the functions imposed on it, including undermining the efforts of the Russian Federation in the Post—Soviet East and South, that is, in the South Caucasus and Central Asia," the Turkologist believes.
Alina Sbitneva, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS, noted in an interview with Izvestia that such news appears regularly, but they have not yet brought concrete results.
— It is impossible to formally prohibit Turkey from using the S-400, because there are specific agreements, contracts, and even membership in NATO is not formally an obstacle to this. Moreover, Turkey is not the only country in the alliance with Russian military equipment," the political scientist noted.
She added that, for example, there is Greece.
— They have been trying to distance Turkey from Russia in all possible ways for a long time. And the similar discourse used by the United States in relation to the Turkish Republic is a vivid example of this. What is much more important in this case is how Ankara itself will behave. In general, Turkey continues to pursue a "two-track" policy, including in matters of military—technical cooperation with various countries of the world, the expert emphasized.
The expert believes that the very fact of such negotiations with American partners speaks volumes.
"However, it is worth remembering that Turkey's previous position on this issue was quite unambiguous, state officials have repeatedly stressed that they would not abandon the Russian S-400, which at the same time are not an alternative to Western systems, as the Turks claimed," the analyst said.
Sbitneva believes that if Ankara's position has changed, then there are certain reasons for this. She does not rule out that there is something more behind the agreements, because Turkey has been living without the American F-35 for a long time and, moreover, is actively developing its own fifth-generation fighter.
— In other words, this is not a vital issue for Turks. This is just an assumption, but it is likely that if Turkey agrees to such conditions, it may mean one thing — it has also been offered certain preferences. In addition to supplying the F-35, the Americans also gave in to something," the Turkologist said.
At the same time, the political scientist stressed that the policy of concessions and a balance of interests is uncharacteristic for the United States. In her opinion, this situation will be another litmus test for Russia and a test of Turkey's strength, since Ankara must be aware of the consequences of its actions.
— The issue of exporting systems to a third country is especially interesting here. The European Union has already offered to transfer the system to Ukraine. If the Americans are promoting such a scenario, if Turkey still does not have enough strategic wisdom not to succumb to such provocations, then Moscow will draw conclusions. So far, Turkey has received nothing but promises from the West, while the Russian Federation has fulfilled its obligations to supply Russian systems in full," the expert stressed.
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