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- What will the merchants say: Russia is among the three G20 countries with the highest trade revenues.
What will the merchants say: Russia is among the three G20 countries with the highest trade revenues.
Russia has become the third G20 country in terms of foreign trade surplus, RIA Novosti reported. From January to September 2025, this figure reached $101.7 billion. Izvestia investigated how stable Russia's current trade surplus is, taking into account the sanctions, as well as how it may affect the foreign exchange market, investment activity and economic growth.
Changing supplies
Russia's high foreign trade surplus was formed under the influence of several systemic factors, Alexander Firanchuk, a leading researcher at the RANEPA International Laboratory for Foreign Trade Research, told Izvestia. The main driver was a noticeable reduction in imports. Import substitution processes, rising costs for external purchases, as well as a slowdown in domestic demand caused by tougher financial conditions had an additional impact. Against the background of relatively stable exports, this led to a significant excess of export revenues over import costs.
However, according to him, the sustainability of such a trade surplus in the face of sanctions pressure raises questions. On the one hand, limited imports and partial restructuring of commodity flows mechanically generate a positive balance. On the other hand, a model based on external constraints is vulnerable. If export revenues decrease or logistics chains change again, the balance can quickly be disrupted.
An additional difficulty lies in the drastic reduction of the channels of international capital movement, the expert believes. Previously, the outflow of private capital helped to smooth out the imbalances of external accounts, but now this mechanism is almost turned off by administrative and sanctions measures. As a result, even small shifts in export-import flows cause noticeable fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate. Increased volatility increases currency risks for companies operating in foreign markets, reduces the predictability of contracts and increases the costs of foreign trade activities.
— The sustainability of Russian exports is largely explained by its raw material structure. In the first months of the sanctions, their construction led to record export revenues from the EU. In the future, exports have been stable due to the fact that raw materials - oil, metals and a number of other items — are relatively easy to redirect to new markets by providing moderate discounts," he said.
The restrictions imposed on the so-called shadow fleet have virtually no effect on export revenues, and key importers of Russian oil, primarily China, continue to ignore price limits, Alexander Firanchuk added.
In addition, the former dependence of imports on the dynamics of the ruble has almost disappeared. Previously, the strengthening of the national currency by about a tenth led to a comparable increase in purchases, but now the exchange rate practically does not regulate their volume. An additional drag is increased interest rates, which restrict access to loans, which are traditionally used to purchase equipment and investment goods.
Possible risks
The current trade surplus can overly strengthen the ruble, thereby reducing the competitiveness of non-commodity and low-margin industries and worsening the position of manufacturers both inside and outside the country, explained Alexander Firanchuk.
— At the same time, the strengthening of the currency, combined with limited access to imported equipment, complicates modernization and slows down investment activity. Therefore, a high surplus cannot be considered a definite plus. With weak capital flows, it increases pressure on the exchange rate and creates external imbalances, which eventually turn into a source of structural distortions," he stressed.
Russia's persistently high foreign trade surplus is largely due to a reduced influx of imported goods, Kirill Lysenko, an analyst for sovereign and regional ratings at Expert RA agency, confirmed to Izvestia. The weakening of purchases from abroad was explained by several factors at once. In particular, economic activity slowed down under the influence of tight monetary policy, the impact of substitution programs for foreign products increased, and the increase in excise taxes and various fees made imports even less attractive. All these conditions have jointly supported a significant trade surplus.
— As of 2025, sanctions are putting more pressure on the import component of the trade balance. On the export side, the impact of sanctions was offset through the implementation of a turn to the East. However, in the long term, one cannot deny the risk of shocks from sanctions on the export component," the expert noted.
At the same time, when the trade surplus reaches significant values, the ruble gets a powerful foundation for strengthening, the expert noted. However, this dynamic turns into a kind of trap. An increase in the exchange rate reduces the ruble incomes of exporters not only due to the recalculation of foreign exchange earnings, but also due to a decrease in price competitiveness in foreign markets at constant domestic costs.
Also, according to him, export revenues denominated in rubles are an important tax base for the budget. If their volume decreases in conditions of a strong national currency, the state receives less funds to support new industries and stimulate economic growth. Moreover, in such conditions, the risk of additional pressure on business increases through an increase in the tax burden, which further weakens the private sector.
Russia's foreign trade in 2025 is developing under the influence of a reorientation to the countries of Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, the expansion of settlements in national currencies and the active digitalization of foreign economic procedures, including the use of blockchain and digital certificates, Ekaterina Shveyeva, associate professor of the Department of Management and GMU at the Faculty of Economics and Management at MGUT Razumovsky, told Izvestia. These trends are gradually forming a more stable model of cooperation with partners outside Western markets.
However, trade volumes have decreased. In January–October, exports fell by 4.3% to $339.8 billion, while imports fell by 2.4% to $224.4 billion. As a result, the foreign trade surplus decreased by 7.8% year-on-year and amounted to $115.3 billion.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Energy, but no response had been received at the time of publication.
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