The economist predicted the exchange rate of the dollar, euro and yuan in January 2026

The ruble ends 2025 in strong positions: the dollar fell below 78 rubles in early December, the euro held around 90, and the yuan was around 10.9. The reasons for the strengthening and the forecast for January 2026 were explained to Izvestia on December 11 by Alexander Grif, Chairman of the Committee on Digital Technological Sovereignty of the CIS, Head of the Laboratory of Cognitive and Digital Sovereignty at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology.

"This strengthening is explained by a combination of factors: exporters are actively selling foreign currency at the end of the year (tax payments), and the Central Bank earlier raised the key rate to high levels, which increased the attractiveness of ruble assets. Hopes for a geopolitical detente supported the ruble. However, the authorities are planning a gradual weakening of the ruble next year. The Ministry of Economic Development forecasts the average dollar exchange rate in 2026 at 92.2 rubles, slightly weaker than the current level," the economist said.

According to the expert, there will be no sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate in January 2026. In the absence of new shocks, the ruble will remain stable. The dollar will be around 77-80 rubles, the euro — 85-90 rubles, the yuan — about 11 rubles.

High interest rates and continued sales of foreign exchange earnings by exporters, Grif added, will keep the ruble from weakening, even despite lower oil prices. However, he stressed that unplanned events can change the trajectory of the course.

"It should be borne in mind that possible unplanned events may shift the course. A short-term strengthening of the ruble (up to 70-75 per dollar) is possible with a breakthrough in peace negotiations, while new sanctions or falling energy prices can weaken the ruble. In the base case, January 2026 will pass without sharp fluctuations, and the exchange rates will remain close to current levels," the expert concluded.

A sensitive drop: the ruble is weakening against the yuan

Experts predict the formation of exchange rate corridors against the American and Chinese currencies

Yuri Moseikin, Doctor of Economics, Head of the Department of National Economics at the Patrice Lumumba RUDN University of Economics, said on December 5 that the downward trend in the dollar exchange rate could end before the end of this year. According to the expert, two factors will influence the growth of the dollar: the expectation of an increase in imports after changes in geopolitics and the need to replenish the budget.

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