Tender days: will Russia celebrate the New Year with snow
In December, Russians faced an abnormal change in the weather: the first weeks of winter turned out to be warmer than usual. In the Central part of Russia, the long-awaited snow began to fall, but it quickly melted. Warming and rain are expected in the cities again. At the same time, a sharp cold snap is expected in the second half of December, but it may not bring the long-awaited snow. And if it does fall out, then the thickness of the cover is unlikely to be enough for winter fun.
Abnormal December
The first part of December turned out to be abnormally warm, Alexander Shuvalov, head of the Meteo forecasting center, told Izvestia. According to him, the temperature in Moscow is now five degrees above normal, in St. Petersburg it is four degrees, and a little to the east there are "even more anomalies."
— The first half of [December] is abnormally warm, but the second half threatens to become abnormally cold. So the main feature of the month is the sudden temperature spikes," said Shuvalov.
Roman Vilfand, scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, explained in an interview with Izvestia: the weather is considered abnormal when it deviates from the norm, and the norm is the average temperature at this time over the past 30 years. According to him, the deviation is usually half a degree or a degree. Now, for two weeks, the temperature has been deviating from the norm by 4-6 degrees, and on December 11 and 12, a deviation of 6-7 degrees is expected.
— These are very big anomalies. This means that the temperature currently observed is more typical for the temperature background of early November. In other words, the weather lags behind its climatic development by more than a month," Vilfand said.
He confirmed that a cold snap is expected in the near future.
Will there be snow for the New Year
On the night of December 9-10, the long-awaited snow fell in Moscow, but by the evening it had almost melted. It is expected that the temperature will be above zero on December 11, and it will get even warmer in the first half of December 12, besides it will rain.
However, a cold front will pass in the evening, with snow falling just in time. Alexander Shuvalov believes that the snow cover will not be significant, but it will be enough to cover the ground for the onset of frost. According to him, on the evening of December 12, residents of the European part of Russia will see the air temperature drop to 6-9 degrees.
— By Sunday, a wave of cold air will reach the Azov and Black Seas, and it will get colder in the Azov Sea, in the Rostov Region, and in the Krasnodar Territory. So this cold snap will be accompanied by a very strong wind. The strongest wind will be in the central regions, in the east: Tambov, Lipetsk, Ryazan. The wind speed can reach 20 meters per second," explained Alexander Shuvalov.
He added that on the middle Volga, the air temperature may drop to 20-25 degrees by the end of next week (by December 20th).
— The exact opposite of the beginning of the month awaits us in the second half of December, but this does not guarantee that we will not have a temperature increase closer to the 25th, - said the meteorologist.
The expert explained that with a strong wind, the cold is felt much more strongly than at the same temperature without wind. He added that there are regions where there is already a stable snow cover.
— There is already snow on the Petrozavodsk-Cherepovets-Kostrom-Nizhny Novgorod line, there, to the south, to Penza, there is already snow. And he will lie down. Everything's fine there. It is likely to snow in the south of Russia. It will be somewhere on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, but, again, the maximum is the Rostov region, the north of the Krasnodar Territory, the north of the Crimea. If it does, it will be mainly in the Rostov region with a height of up to four or five centimeters," said Alexander Shuvalov.
Roman Vilfand noted that 92-93% of Russia's territories are already covered with snow. According to him, residents of the European part of the country will observe snow when the temperature drops.: Rain will come to Moscow first, then sleet, and then snowfall.
— The snow that falls will not melt. Its height will not be very high, but it will have all the attributes of winter," the expert assured.
According to Roman Vilfand, an increase in pressure is also expected, which does not create conditions for precipitation, so there will be no significant increase in the height of the snow cover. There may be a light snowfall, but it's still "not the kind of snow that allows you to ski." At the same time, the expert expressed the hope that it would still be possible to make a snow woman.
Tatiana Pozdnyakova, a leading specialist at the Meteonosti news agency, suggested that the snow that will fall in Moscow at the end of the week will remain for some time.
— The snowfall won't last until the New Year, that's for sure. Nevertheless, all the following precipitation in the form of snow will still be cumulative, so it is likely that there will be snow in the metropolitan region on New Year's Eve," she told Izvestia. — It's another matter what the height of this snow will be. Most likely, it will not exceed the climatic norm.
The meteorologist explained that in Moscow, the snow height norm for December 31 is 13-14 cm.
— Of course, I don't think we will have such snow, — says Tatiana Pozdnyakova.
The meteorologist added that the New Year's mood is not created by the weather. According to her, winter has already taken the first step, and in Moscow "stable negative temperatures rarely occur during all winter months."
— No matter what frosts there are in January, then it's time for a thaw. It cannot be said that winter has stopped. It's just such a winter in our latitudes," concluded Tatiana Pozdnyakova.
So far, meteorologists do not undertake to predict whether all Russians will be able to celebrate the New Year with snow.
— On New Year's Eve, mysteries, magic, and miracles take place, so it's generally very difficult to predict the weather on New Year's Eve. Although our scientists are trying to formalize these miracles, they are still not very successful," concluded Roman Vilfand.
How to celebrate New Year's Eve without snow
When snow falls, a New Year's mood immediately appears, it "resembles a fairy tale," Natalia Naumova, a child psychologist, told Izvestia. According to her, at such moments, people relax, start preparing for the holiday, and their stress levels decrease.
— Children come to my reception, I hear how they feel about the holiday. And adults say that without snow, there would be no holiday. This is how our perception works: sometimes, in order to feel a holiday, a person must have the same attributes as in childhood," she said.
The psychologist recommended that you listen more to your emotional state at the end of the year, and then you can feel the holiday without snow.
— It is important to understand that this is all our perception, — Natalia Naumova noted.
The psychologist added that snow can relax one person, while the other will not even notice the precipitation. According to her, it is important to create a sense of celebration for yourself, regardless of the weather.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
