Gref predicted a key rate of 12% by the end of 2026
In 2026, the Russian economy will grow by about 1%, and the key rate may reach 12% by the end of next year, Sberbank CEO German Gref said on December 10 as part of Investor Day.
"In 2026, we expect the economy to grow modestly at about 1%. Inflationary pressure will weaken and approach the regulator's target of 4%. — ed.). In such conditions, we expect a softening of the PREP, and by the end of 2026 the key rate may reach 12%," he said. The broadcast was conducted on the event's website.
Savings Bank also expects normalization of credit activity. According to the forecast, the growth rate of lending will be in the range of 9-11%, and the markets for raising funds will grow at a comparable pace. Retail lending will grow at a faster pace.
"In terms of our financial performance, we maintain key goals for 2026: maintaining return on equity at 22% and capital adequacy at the target level of 13.3%. In 2026, we plan to pay dividends in the amount of 50% of profits for 2025," he added.
On December 6, the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, suggested that all business problems should not be reduced solely to the size of the key rate. According to her, businesses should feel the benefits of both low interest rates and a low growth rate of any costs. She also noted that the key rate works effectively, restrains excessive demand and high lending growth.
On December 8, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that all conditions have been created in the Russian Federation for a gradual increase in economic growth, maintaining low unemployment and moderate inflation. According to the forecast of the Central Bank of Russia, inflation should reach 4-5% next year. The Russian leader stressed that the country has prepared a plan for structural changes in the economy, its implementation is calculated until 2030.
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