Pipe selection: what is behind the cooperation between Yerevan and Berlin

Armenia and Germany signed a Declaration on the strategic agenda of the bilateral partnership. According to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, this document will open the "way to Europe" for Yerevan. Earlier, the republic signed a similar agreement with the European Union and the United States. Does this mean a real turn of Armenia towards Europe and what interests are actually pursued by each of the parties — in the Izvestia article

What have Yerevan and Berlin agreed on?

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan paid an official visit to Berlin on December 9. The trip proved to be productive: following the talks with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, a Declaration on the strategic agenda of bilateral cooperation was signed. The Armenian leader has already described the visit as "truly historic."

"In this period full of unprecedented challenges, when democracies face rapidly spreading, often hybrid threats, only more coordinated and effective actions by like-minded countries can strengthen our collective democratic resilience," Pashinyan said.

Friedrich Merz confirmed that Germany is ready to support Armenia on the path towards rapprochement with the EU, and stressed the importance of the parliamentary elections in 2026 for the further development of democratic institutions.

In this regard, he discussed with Pashinyan how Berlin can strengthen Yerevan's stability. "It goes without saying for us that we want to help resolve the main issues related to sovereignty and strengthen security by offering a broader agenda for Armenia," the German Chancellor stressed.

Thus, in accordance with the signed Declaration on Strategic Partnership, Germany is ready to assist Armenia in a number of areas. It is planned to hold regular consultations between ministries and departments, develop energy cooperation, support dialogue on regional and global security, as well as expand bilateral trade.

The document does not have the status of an international agreement. And the final part states that the implementation of initiatives will depend on the availability of resources and compliance with national legislation. In fact, the implementation of the agreements remains a matter of the good will of the parties.

Moscow is a key player

Earlier, Yerevan signed a similar document with the EU and the United States. In each of them, Armenia is promised to ensure energy independence from Moscow. Washington intends to export civilian nuclear technologies to Armenia. Berlin is going to develop renewable energy in the republic, and Brussels is going to invest 500 million euros in the country's energy sector.

As Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets, points out in an interview with Izvestia, Armenia has been balancing between the Russian and Western orbits for years. But if you look at the numbers, the declarations look more like symbolic gestures than a ready-made infrastructure for real diversification.

— Today, Armenia receives up to 85% of its gas from Russia at a price of $165 dollars per thousand cubic meters, which is one of the lowest tariffs among Russian export destinations. All gas goes through Georgia via the only gas pipeline controlled by Gazprom Armenia. At the same time, the republic does not have its own production, and the annual demand exceeds 2.6 billion cubic meters.

According to the expert, the German KfW has already invested more than €136 million in solar power plants, increasing about 120 MW of capacity. But such solutions can only compensate for part of the needs — heating and industry remain tied to gas.

As for blue fuel, Yerevan is also making attempts to diversify here. In particular, it is negotiating with Turkmenistan on the supply of 600 million — 1 billion cubic meters of gas through Iran under the SWAP scheme. But there are also limitations here.

— Firstly, these volumes will cover only a quarter of the current imports. In addition, Tehran's consent is required, new contracts are required, and it is unclear at what price. Physically, Armenia does not have an alternative gas pipeline bypassing the Russian direction and is not expected in the foreseeable future. The energy independence of the republic today is about 27%, according to plans, it should grow by 2050 due to new nuclear power plants and renewable energy sources, but this is a horizon of several decades, the expert points out.

In fact, Berlin and Brussels can help with electricity and modernization grants, but they are unable to replace the basic gas infrastructure in the region, Igor Rastorguev explains.

— This is not a question of political will, but of elementary physics: the pipes through which the gas flows belong to Russia, there are no alternative routes, and the construction of new ones will require many billions and years. Despite Yerevan's desire for "energy independence," Moscow will remain a key player in the Armenian energy sector for a long time to come.

What are the goals of the parties?

Political analyst Kamran Hasanov, in an interview with Izvestia, notes that the signing of such declarations on strategic partnership really brings countries closer, expands the range of joint projects and creates new opportunities for political and economic cooperation.

— However, it is worth emphasizing that strategic partnership in itself does not mean an accelerated path to membership in the European Union. The process of joining the EU is separate, complex and multi—stage: it begins with obtaining candidate status, continues through lengthy negotiation tracks and requires the implementation of large-scale reforms," the Izvestia interlocutor explains.

At the same time, Associate Professor of the National Academy of Sciences Artur Avakov emphasizes that the adopted declarations are not at all related to the full-fledged European integration of Armenia.

— Pashinyan's team is preparing for parliamentary elections, and rapprochement with Germany and Europe in general is an important element of its election campaign. The current government of Armenia will also try to implement the "Crossroads of the World". This requires not only the consent of Azerbaijan and Turkey, which seem to have given it, but also the participation of the EU, China and other countries that will use the Caucasian hub," the expert notes.

According to him, the European Union wants to trade with China through Armenia because it seeks to exclude Russia from world trade. It is no coincidence that the EU representatives emphasized at the signing of the statement that they want to increase Armenia's energy independence from Russia at the expense of Turkey, as well as protect the Armenian information space following the example of Moldova.

— But if Moldova has become at least a candidate for EU membership and is generally moving closer to Romania, then Armenia is far from the European Union in all respects, and there are not even diplomatic relations with Turkey. So, such a policy can be very dangerous for Yerevan," Avakov warns.