Protective reflex: more than a million self-employed will be able to connect to social insurance

More than a million citizens with the status of self-employed will be able to voluntarily join the social insurance system within three years, said Andrei Pudov, State Secretary and Deputy Head of the Ministry of Labor. According to him, about 90% of respondents in the framework of the conducted research support the idea of registration of insurance relations in case of disability. The project is experimental in nature and will be valid until the end of January 2028. How likely is it that the voluntary model may turn into a mandatory one in the future, as well as how the participation of more than 1 million self—employed in the program may affect the social insurance system - in the Izvestia article.

Separate accounting

The Social Fund plans to allocate a separate line in accounting for funds received from the self-employed, who voluntarily insure themselves in case of temporary disability, the press service of the Ministry of Labor told Izvestia. These amounts will be accounted for separately, and they will not affect the remaining revenue or expenditure items of the SFR budget. During the experiment, it is expected that the program will remain financially balanced. Sick leave payments for the self-employed are expected to be fully covered by their own insurance premiums.

"Calculations based on the financial parameters of the proposed insurance model indicate that it is balanced even with a significant number of sick leave recipients among the voluntarily registered self—employed," the ministry said.

Photo: RIA Novosti/Alexey Sukhorukov

It is impossible to say with certainty whether the voluntary model of social insurance for the self-employed will become mandatory in the future, Ekaterina Shveeva, associate professor of the Department of Management and GMU at the Faculty of Economics and Management at MGUT Razumovsky, told Izvestia. The experiment is currently underway from January 1, 2026 to December 31, 2028. The transition to a mandatory model can create an economic burden on the self-employed, reduce the profitability of small businesses and freelancing, especially with low incomes, and lead to the departure of some entrepreneurs to the shadow sector. In addition, compulsory insurance will require new monitoring and reporting mechanisms, increasing administrative costs and bureaucratization.

"At the same time, the participation of more than a million self—employed in the voluntary program will increase the financial stability of the system, as its financing will be provided solely through voluntary contributions, without attracting additional sources," she said.

Photo: TASS/Vedomosti/Evgeny Razumny

The probability of making the voluntary insurance model for self-employed citizens mandatory is very high, Inna Litvinenko, associate professor at the Department of Economics and Management at the Russian State University of Social Technologies, told Izvestia.

"The first reason is the growing number of self—employed people who want to join the social insurance system and the opportunity to receive sick leave payments like all employees," the expert noted. — The second reason is the replenishment of the budget, namely the Social Fund. According to official data, the current budget deficit by the end of 2025 will amount to 4.28 trillion rubles. This is twice as much as planned. In 2026, this initiative opens up the prospect of blocking the growth of the deficit to some extent.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Anna Selina

The widespread involvement of citizens in the social insurance system is certainly a positive development, Maxim Chirkov, associate professor of the Department of Economic Policy and Economic Measurements at the State University of Management (GUU), told Izvestia. People are becoming more aware and financially literate, and the system is receiving additional contributions. This strengthens its sustainability and makes it possible to expand social support, especially for the least well-off segments of the population. In the future, the idea of compulsory participation is also possible, but such changes are taking place slowly.

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Experts expect that this will help in the fight against personnel starvation.

A signal for the market

The very existence of the voluntary model is a positive signal for the labor market, Andrei Zhukovsky, senior researcher at the Institute of Regional Economics and Inter-Budgetary Relations at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia. Experiments with such schemes are necessary to create a more flexible and fair system, and the transition to mandatory models will depend on their effectiveness: it is important to collect feedback, compare data and understand whether this will bring benefits or create obstacles.

— The participation of more than a million self-employed people in the program nationwide will have little impact. The experience of the UAE, where foreign workers contribute to the pension system, is more promising. Such a mechanism could strengthen our healthcare and pension system, especially for citizens of pre—retirement age, and at the same time be supported by businesses so as not to create an additional burden," he believes.

Photo: RIA Novosti/Maxim Blinov

First, it is necessary to determine how many self-employed will decide to participate, and conduct extensive explanatory work with this category, Ivan Abramov, first deputy chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Economic Policy, told Izvestia. Extending social protection to the self-employed is the right initiative, and such guarantees will be provided without significant involvement of public funds.

"The expected participation of more than a million self—employed is still tentative, and conclusions about the impact on the social insurance system will be drawn based on the results of the experiment," the senator believes. — It may be necessary to adjust the terms and conditions of the program. Despite the availability of alternative insurance services on the market, the state social fund remains the most reliable and stable instrument for supporting citizens.

Photo: RIA Novosti/Maxim Blinov

In the future, the results of the experiment, according to him, will make it possible to evaluate the effectiveness of the voluntary model and determine the possibilities of its scaling. The collected data will help to develop optimal approaches to the social protection of the self-employed and ensure a balance between the financial burden.

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The number of self-employed in Russia is growing rapidly. By the end of 2024, there were more than 12 million of them, and by November 2025 — almost 15.2 million, while the increase in 2025 exceeded the figures of the previous year, and hundreds of thousands of new entrepreneurs were registered every month. According to the forecast of the Federal Tax Service, by 2026 their number may reach 14.5 million, and by 2027 - 16.7 million, although the growth rate will slow down. The main concentrations of the self-employed are observed in Moscow, the Moscow Region and St. Petersburg.