That's the trick: the Russian gold reserve has gone up in price

The total value of gold in the Bank of Russia's vaults is estimated at $310.7 billion, while it increased by $112 billion over the year, although the weight of the precious metal decreased by 6 tons. Izvestia investigated how this is explained and what it leads to.

Asset management

The Russian treasury holds 2,326.5 tons of gold at the end of 2025. According to official statistics from the World Gold Council, this year Russia's net sales of this precious metal amounted to 6.2 tons. Despite this, Russia continues to occupy a leading position in terms of gold reserves — almost 2,330 tons (about 75 million troy ounces) — and ranks fifth after the United States, Germany, Italy and France.

Since 2020, net purchases of gold from Russia amounted to only 55.4 tons. Net sales were observed in 2002 (35.3 tons), in 2004 (3.2 tons) and finally in 2025, when Russia sold slightly more than 6 tons of gold.

Since the end of 2022, the price of gold has increased by about 2.1 times, and the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Russia have increased by 2.4 times. That is, the growth of reserves is again mainly due to the price factor, with a small natural increase in the volume of gold. The share of gold in the international reserves of the Bank of Russia increased from about 23% at the end of 2022 to about 42.3% in November 2025, while the currency component of assets reached $423.9 billion, Alexander Abramov, head of the Laboratory for Analysis of Institutions and financial markets at the Presidential Academy, draws attention.

—Today, gold, in fact, remains the only substitute for freely convertible currency in the international reserves of the Bank of Russia," he states.

Over the past 12 months, the cost of an ounce of gold has increased by 60% — $2.6 thousand to $4.3 thousand. The peak of price growth occurred in October. The growth is the most significant since 1979. Experts interviewed by the publication identified several factors contributing to the rise in gold prices.

Correlation with the dollar exchange rate

The weakness of the US national currency is the most important factor. In 2025, the DXY dollar index showed one of the worst dynamics since 2017, with the dollar index declining by more than 8% from January to December 2025. At the same time, as Nikolay Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam, noted, the negative correlation between the US dollar exchange rate and the prices of precious metals is currently quite high.

Difficulties have arisen in the internal circuit of the US economy due to uncertainty in the market, as well as President Trump's actions regarding the Fed.

— The American president has consistently criticized Powell's actions, accusing him of being slow and urging him to lower the key rate as soon as possible. This pressure pushed gold prices up, as there was a real threat of the regulator losing its independence, the analyst argues.

Geopolitical tensions

In 2025, the situation in the Middle East continued to be turbulent.

— Despite the truce with Hamas, the release of hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli soldiers from the Gaza Strip, it did not make a proper impression on the markets. Apparently, market participants are not very confident that peace will last for a long time, and the situation will be finally resolved," Dudchenko is sure.

There is a threat of a ground operation in Venezuela. The United States has formed a strike force off its shores and is threatening to strike at drug cartels located in the country. According to an analyst from Finam, this situation is rather artificially created and aimed at exerting additional pressure on China and Russia.

"Thus, the price of gold for the most part acted as a protective asset, and the allocation to this asset increased,— Dudchenko believes.

Trade wars

Since the beginning of the year, Trump has been pursuing a strict protectionist policy, including against his main geopolitical opponent, China.

— After Trump's meeting with Xi Jinping at the APEC summit, the situation was slightly relieved, — continues Dudchenko. — However, the market still expected more — the signing of a final trade agreement. Donald Trump has promised to visit Beijing in April next year.

Increased demand for precious metals

The World Gold Council has updated data on the inflow of funds into the so-called "gold" ETFs. From the beginning of this year to the end of November, the net inflow of funds into ETFs amounted to more than $77 billion. Most of this influx occurred in North America.

The demand for gold from central banks is also growing. According to the latest survey from the World Gold Council, most central banks prefer to maintain their position in gold. There are several reasons for this.

— First of all, gold is a historical position. Secondly, gold is not at risk of default and is an asset that hedges against inflation. Thirdly, during periods of recession and global turmoil, the role of gold as a protective asset is growing. Fourth, gold is an excellent position for portfolio diversification both for a private investor and nationwide," Dudchenko lists.

In his opinion, the same factors will be relevant in 2026.

And according to Alexander Abramov, the withdrawal of central banks into gold is part of the global trend towards de—dollarization, which was spurred by the actions of the American president.

— The central banks of China, India and several other countries have been actively buying gold throughout the year, gradually moving away from the predominance of the dollar and euro in their reserves. At the same time, there was some normalization of trade relations between the United States and China in October, which led to a slight decrease in prices, the expert explained.

The FOMO effect

In part, the rise in gold prices provokes the rise in gold prices itself. In fear of Missing Out (FOMO), investors have invested in this particular asset.

"There is a correction period now, but this does not negate the possibility of renewed speculative interest in the price," Dudchenko said.

Gold as a resource

Gold acts in the markets not only as an investment asset. The demand for gold as a direct metal for industrial needs is growing, and at an active rate — by 7-10% per year, comments Yulia Makarenko, Deputy Director of the Banking Institute for Development.

— Gold is a valuable material for manufacturing microelectronics and ultra—precise equipment. The driver of gold consumption as a metal has become data centers, the market volume of which is growing annually by 5-10% (not all IT giants disclose the real capacity of their data centers). This is a growing market right now — many projects are under construction," she says

Gold forecasts

In the baseline scenario, experts expect further consistent growth in gold prices.

So, Nikolai Dudchenko assumes reaching the $4,500 per troy ounce mark. Alexander Abramov predicts growth from the current $4,200 to $5,000. Among the pressure factors, he mentioned, in addition to the above, the increasing pressure of debt problems in a number of developed and developing countries and the trend towards a decrease in the dollar's share in international settlements.

According to Yulia Makarenko, with the accumulation of existing contradictions, gold will become more expensive — perhaps up to $ 4,800.

— Nevertheless, a huge part of the demand is formed due to negative market expectations. In the event of a detente, for example, real actions to resolve the military conflict in Europe, it is possible for Russia to return its assets blocked in the United States, lift sanctions and, as a result, drop gold prices to the level of $ 3,000 and below, to the actual market price — followed by a natural gradual increase, as some speculative It is a component that has provided rapid growth in the face of uncertainty," she summarizes.