The expert spoke about the "turning point" in the digital currency market

This week is a turning point in the digital currency market cycle: its participants are beginning to exit the "waiting for a decision" phase and enter the era of "strength testing." What matters now is not what the Fed will say, but how the market will react to the words that are already almost known. This opinion was expressed by Vasily Girya, the owner and CEO of GIS Mining, in an interview with Izvestia on December 8.

"The morning rise in the price of bitcoin to $92,000 on Monday showed that the bulls did not give up, but volumes remain small, and open interest in futures remains below the November highs, which is a sign that traders are opening positions with caution. The imbalance between fundamental factors is particularly noticeable: a weak dollar, an influx of funds into ETFs, the completion of the Fed's quantitative tightening program (QT) and unrealized attempts to overcome the $93,500 mark against the background of low market liquidity," he said.

According to Geary, the key focus is Wednesday, December 10: the US Federal Reserve meeting and Jerome Powell's press conference. The rate cut, the expert clarified, is almost embedded in the price, and therefore the reaction will depend on the subtleties — for example, whether three or four cuts will be included in 2026, or, more importantly, whether a phrase like "we are moving to a neutral policy" or "inflation is under control" will be heard. Even a hint of a pause after December may cause a sell-off of risky assets, as many positions are open precisely in the scenario of prolonged easing.

Cryptoshock: what is behind the collapse of Bitcoin and the crisis of trust

The fall in the value of the first cryptocurrency caused panic in the market

On Tuesday and Thursday, employment data (ADP and unemployment claims) will become leading indicators: if the labor market suddenly shows resilience, the Fed will get an argument against aggressive easing — and bitcoin will have to look for support not in monetary policy, but in blockchain metrics.

"Nevertheless, bitcoin has a safety belt: the recovering influx into spot ETFs — a rare phenomenon even in correction phases — indicates institutional demand, and the lack of mass withdrawal of coins to exchanges suggests that long—term holders are not entering into a sell-off," the expert shared.

GIS Mining estimates that if the bitcoin price stays above $90,000 ahead of the meeting, it will create ideal conditions for acceleration: with a breakout of $93,500, a rapid price increase is possible with targets above $96,200, and further to $100,000. But if the bears drop the price below $87,500 by Wednesday, the "cycle reassessment" phase will begin, where quarterly support levels will be used instead of monthly ones. Clarity will come not from Powell's podium, but from the chart, in the form of breakouts or liquidations.

The high volatility of the digital currency market, observed since mid-autumn, currently has a neutral impact on the pace of development of the global industrial mining market. This young industry continues to transform and develop in Russia and in a number of large energy-rich countries around the world. For example, in the fall, institutional clients in Russia increased the volume of orders for bitcoin mining and the purchase of ASICs (computing equipment) by almost 30% compared to the summer months. In the second half of this year, market participants are considering close cooperation with mining data centers for an average of 1.5 - 3 years.

The strengthening ruble also provided a significant internal incentive to modernize the computing equipment fleet in the Russian legal mining jurisdiction. Since the beginning of this year, the ruble has regained its position against the US currency by almost 25%, creating very attractive price conditions for the purchase of modern ASICs and the modernization of the technological infrastructure of mining data centers.

"The United States also has ambitious plans today: the country intends to become an energy superpower in the coming years for the accelerated development of classical and mining data centers, as well as AI data centers. The race for digital resources is gaining new momentum, with at least the United States, Russia, China, and the Gulf states participating. The interpenetration of the fiat market with the new digital currency industry continues against the background of balanced and attractive regulation in the world's leading jurisdictions," concluded Giria.

On September 11, the owner and CEO of GIS Mining, Vasily Girya, spoke at the Capital Markets forum about the prospects for industrial mining in the Russian Federation and digital currencies. According to him, if the industry's development scenario is moderately positive, the price of bitcoin could reach $130-135 thousand by the end of 2025.

All important news is on the Izvestia channel in the MAX messenger.