The economist explained the reasons for the decline in the dollar and gave a forecast for the end of the year.

The dollar exchange rate on the interbank foreign exchange market dropped to 76 rubles for the first time in the last two and a half years. As Georgy Ostapkovich, research director of the HSE Center for Market Research, explained in an interview with Izvestia on December 4, the current quotation objectively reflects the balance of supply and demand from economic agents.

"The decrease indicates the limited demand of the real sector for the US currency at the moment. The main reason for the weak demand is the large-scale sale of export earnings by exporting companies in rubles on the domestic market in the absence of restrictions from the Central Bank," he explained.

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According to the expert, working with the dollar is associated with sanctions risks, and wages and costs are calculated mainly in the national currency, which is gradually displacing the dollar from operating activities. However, according to Ostapkovich, this trend is temporary.

"Already at the end of this year or the beginning of next year, the downward movement may change to an upward one. This will be due to a seasonal factor: New Year's Eve purchases of imported goods requiring foreign currency, as well as demand from the population traveling abroad and needing foreign currency in cash due to restrictions on the use of Russian cards," the economist explained.

As a result, according to him, the dollar may return to the levels of 83-85 rubles.

At the same time, the expert emphasizes the high degree of uncertainty, which is determined more by geopolitical than purely economic factors. In his opinion, it is impossible to make point forecasts of the exchange rate — only general trends can be assessed.

The expert considers the expectations of the Ministry of Economic Development, which predicts a rate above 90 rubles next year, to be fair, noting that a moderate weakening of the ruble would be beneficial for the budget and exporters without harming the population, accustomed to a rate around 90 rubles per dollar.

On December 2, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, on the sidelines of the investment forum "Russia is Calling!", declared the unacceptability of establishing a currency corridor for the ruble, calling the floating exchange rate one of the foundations of macroeconomic stability. He stressed that the current ruble exchange rate is the average between the previously passed levels of 60, 70 and 100 rubles per dollar.

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