After the holidays: what is the expected inflation rate in early 2026
The peak period of consumer price growth in Russia is likely to occur at the beginning of next year. This forecast was given by Dmitry Pyanov, First Deputy Chairman of VTB. According to the top manager, the inflation rate in 2026 will be above 5%, that is, it will not be possible to slow down to the target of 4%. To what extent this is a realistic forecast, what price growth experts expect in 2026, and what deflationary and deflationary factors will act — read the Izvestia article.
The last month's factor
The peak period of consumer price growth in Russia is likely to occur at the beginning of next year. This forecast was given by Dmitry Pyanov, First Deputy Chairman of VTB. According to VTB's top manager, the 4% inflation target will not be achieved next year and the value will exceed 5%, Pyanov believes.
According to the Ministry of Economic Development, annual inflation was 6.92% at the end of November.
December is traditionally the month of acceleration of inflation. For example, from 2017 to 2024, the price increase in the last month of the year was 0.76%, whereas in order to achieve the target of 4%, it is necessary that the indicator does not exceed 0.54%, this follows from the calculations of the Bank of Russia.
What accelerates and slows down inflation
Experts interviewed by Izvestia agree that in December 2025, inflation is being held back by a slowdown in domestic demand. It is caused by the high key interest rate and, consequently, expensive loans.
The pace of price growth is also influenced by new factors that did not exist, for example, last year, said Yulia Makarenko, Deputy director of the Banking Institute for Development.
"This includes recycling under the new rules, an increase in the VAT rate from 20% to 22% from 2026, and changes in tax administration, which implies an increase in the burden on businesses," she says.
Nikita Bredikhin, a leading investment analyst at Go Invest, believes that the increase in motor fuel prices caused by unscheduled repairs at the refinery had a noticeable impact on the inflation rate.
"However, in 2026, the impact of this factor may decrease, as prices have already begun to gradually decrease," he says.
The "key" factor
The Bank of Russia's baseline forecast for the October meeting suggests the possibility of both maintaining the key rate at the current level (16.5%) and reducing it slightly. However, according to the experts interviewed, data that will influence the decision may be published before the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia on December 19.
The main argument for lowering the key rate is a slowdown in inflation. According to Rosstat, in annual terms, this parameter dropped below the projected level of 7% to 6.92%. And, according to the regulator's baseline forecast in October, the average key rate in 2026 will be 13-15%.
At the next meeting of the Central Bank on December 19, it is likely to lower the rate by 0.5 percentage points, emphasizing following the trend of slowing inflation, predicts Vladimir Eremkin, senior researcher at the IPEI Structural Research Laboratory of the Presidential Academy.
— In 2026, there will also be a good potential for a rate cut, but this process may last for the whole year and take place smoothly, without abrupt changes. The Central Bank focuses on the stability of inflationary trends, is reinsured, and takes into account the risks of high uncertainty. The range of the average key rate in the baseline scenario next year will be 13-14%, but if disinflationary trends are stable, there are no serious external shocks and the ruble exchange rate is stable, we see the potential for an even greater decline to 11-13%, the expert believes.
Nikita Bredikhin expects a reduction in the key rate to 12-13% in 2026, and when the inflation target of 4% is reached, to 10-12%.
"The main difficulty is to keep the rate high enough and not cause a new round of inflation growth and an excessive increase in lending rates after easing the PREP," he says.
Ruble exchange rate in December 2025 and in 2026
In November, the ruble continued its strong dynamics against other world currencies. Paired with the dollar, the ruble strengthened by 3.8%, ending the month at 77.61, the lowest value since mid—July.
Alexander Potavin, an analyst at Finam Financial Group, called the increased levels of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation's key rate, encouraging news on geopolitics, which give hope for an early settlement of the military conflict in Ukraine, as well as the preservation of an oversupply of currency on the market, the main factors in strengthening the national currency in November.
A strong ruble creates prerequisites for a decrease in demand for foreign currency among some investors, the population and businesses.
— In December, the listed factors will retain their influence. Apparently, at the December 19 meeting, the Central Bank may once again reduce the rate by 0.5%, to 16% per annum. But this will not be enough to affect the ruble's position. Increased budget expenditures are also expected, some of the money from which may be used to purchase imports, which may at least stop the strengthening of the ruble. Also, in December, sales of export earnings may decrease due to the effects of blocking sanctions against Russian oil companies," Potavin comments.
According to the forecast of the company's analysts, the dollar–ruble pair will trade in the range of 77-83 rubles in December.
Alexey Vedev, a leading researcher at the Gaidar Institute's Financial Research Laboratory, attributes the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate primarily to the current account surplus.
— And besides, the interest rate arbitrage factor. Extremely high bond rates attract capital, including from unfriendly countries, and increase demand for the ruble. At the same time, the population has less demand for foreign currency due to the risks associated with frozen accounts and possible restrictions on currency exchange for Russian citizens. Among other things, the Ministry of Finance is buying smaller amounts of foreign currency this year, which reduces pressure on the ruble," the respondent explained.
According to his calculations, the trade currency corridor will stabilize at the levels of 75-82 rubles per dollar and will remain in this form next year, 2026.
According to the Go Invest analyst, in 2026 the yuan exchange rate will rise to 13-13.3 rubles, and the dollar to 92-94 rubles.
"Currently, a strong ruble is holding back inflation, but as the ruble weakens, the cost of imports will rise, which will be a pro—inflationary factor," Bredikhin concludes.
According to Vladimir Eremkin's forecast, the ruble is unlikely to experience major shocks by the end of 2025, so the exchange rate will be in the range of 77-81 rubles per dollar.
— In 2026, the national currency can be expected to weaken to the range of 90-100 rubles. The ruble remains sensitive to a noticeable softening of the PREP, which is the baseline scenario for next year, and also depends on the state of foreign trade and the sanctions policy of Western countries, the source said.
Inflation forecasts in Russia
Alexey Vedev assessed the inflation trend in Russia as downward.
— By the end of 2025, inflation will be around 7% or slightly lower. The forecast for 2026 is about 5%. The decrease in the indicator is primarily due to the fact that food inflation dominated this year, the expert argues.
According to him, consumer demand growth will start to slow down now and will continue next year, as wages will increase at a more moderate pace.
Food inflation is cyclical, and there is reason to believe that it will continue to decline. In particular, price control for essential goods will have an impact on the trend, the analyst believes.
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