Negotiation excess: Kiev may change its approach to dialogue after Ermak's resignation
Andrei Ermak's scandalous departure opens up opportunities for Ukraine to choose a more pragmatic path in negotiations, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. He added that as the conflict develops, conditions for Kiev inevitably deteriorate and the prospect of negotiations will depend on the willingness of the Ukrainian side to prioritize ending the bloodshed. Against the background of the internal crisis, the Kiev regime has noticeably increased its international diplomatic activity. On November 30, a Ukrainian delegation visited Washington to consult on the prospects for a settlement, and the US President's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is preparing for a visit to Moscow. These contacts are expected to relate to the coordination of positions on the most controversial points of the negotiation process.
How will Ermak's resignation affect the negotiations
The escalating crisis in Ukraine opens up additional opportunities for Kiev to finally reconsider its approach to negotiations and move to a more pragmatic course, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia.
Andrey Ermak
"Ermak's departure is unlikely to negatively affect the continuation of the negotiation process," he noted. — Because for six years, while he participated in the Minsk, Normandy and other formats, Ermak was always playing a game to break up the negotiations.
According to Rodion Miroshnik, Ermak only created the appearance of work that did not lead to results and contributed to the preservation of bloodshed.
"In this case, the crisis that is taking place in Ukraine creates certain additional opportunities for it to choose a more pragmatic path rather than continuing to play out the interests of Westerners who order this music," the diplomat believes.
Zelensky dismissed the head of his office, Andrei Ermak, who had held the post since February 2020, on November 28. On the same day, NABU and SAP detectives conducted searches at his place.
Pressure on Yermak in the Verkhovna Rada began to increase after publications related to businessman Timur Mindich and his connections with the Ministries of Justice and energy. A high-profile corruption scandal undermines Kiev's position ahead of foreign policy negotiations that require a demonstration of managerial stability.
— With the recent disclosure of the corruption scandal in Kiev, Washington's support for Zelensky has finally lost any meaning. Kiev may have found itself in the most critical situation for itself since February 2022, when internal political problems and external pressure from a key partner were added to the problems at the front," Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia.
What to expect from Witkoff's visit to Russia
In the coming days, the diplomatic track of the Ukrainian settlement is likely to develop in several directions at once.
An American delegation is coming to Russia at the beginning of the week, and the parties will try to move forward in the most difficult areas of settlement. According to presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin will receive the special envoy of the head of the United States, Steve Witkoff, in the first half of next week. The visit will continue a series of contacts on the peace plan after working discussions, including consultations between the United States and Ukraine in Geneva on November 23.
Steve Witkoff
"Witkoff's visit to Moscow is another confirmation that, despite the imposition of American sanctions against the Russian oil sector, Russia remains committed to dialogue with the United States and is ready to develop the spirit of Anchorage," said Tigran Meloyan.
On November 30, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Special Envoy Witkoff and the son-in-law of the head of the White House, Jared Kushner, met with the Ukrainian delegation in Florida. Instead of Ermak, the Ukrainian delegation to the negotiations with the United States was headed by Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov.
These consultations should become a stage for coordinating positions before a possible meeting between Zelensky and US President Donald Trump, the date of which has not yet been determined.
Washington proceeds from the fact that the final settlement of the conflict in Ukraine should provide for clear guarantees of its sovereignty and independence. This was stated by Marco Rubio, opening a meeting with the Ukrainian delegation in Florida. According to the Axios portal, the American administration expects to coordinate with Kiev the most controversial issues, primarily concerning the territories and the architecture of future security guarantees.
Marco Rubio, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner meet with Rustem Umerov and other members of the Ukrainian delegation in Hallandale Beach, Florida
Washington had previously submitted a draft settlement, which included 28 points. It caused discontent in Kiev and a number of European partners, who immediately tried to correct it. According to media reports, the parties managed to agree on most of the proposals in Geneva, but a number of fundamental issues were postponed until the meeting between Zelensky and Trump. Later, the American president said that the document had been reduced from 28 to 22 points.
The US administration emphasizes that work on the text is ongoing and it is premature to disclose the details. In Moscow, in turn, they declare their readiness to discuss proposals, while remaining open to negotiations on the Anchorage format platform. At a meeting of the Russian Security Council on November 21, Vladimir Putin noted that the American plan could become the basis for a final settlement, but there has not yet been a substantive discussion with Russia.
At the same time, European diplomacy has intensified. Zelensky will arrive in Paris on Monday for talks with President Emmanuel Macron. According to French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barraud, the parties will discuss some "conditions for a just and lasting peace."
Are the parties close to compromises
The peace plan proposed by the American side, which involves a cessation of hostilities and a transition to a political settlement, opens up a rare opportunity to stabilize the situation. However, it is Kiev that demonstrates the greatest unwillingness to compromise, without which the end of the conflict seems unlikely.
One of the central points of the document is the recognition of the new territorial structure that has developed at the moment. It is proposed to consolidate the status of Crimea and Donbass, as well as fix the line of contact in the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. These provisions reflect the actual situation "on the ground" and are intended to resolve the issue of further escalation around these territories. Ukraine categorically rejects such proposals.
At the same time, the further deterioration of conditions for Kiev is already a completely natural process.
— As the conflict develops, the situation on the ground changes, and the initiative "on the ground" is controlled by Russia, the situation for Ukraine will get worse. Every next sentence will be worse, at least for the Ukrainian authorities, for the Ukrainian regime," Rodion Miroshnik emphasized in an interview with Izvestia.
The process is developing, it has a certain perspective, and its productivity, the diplomat noted, will depend on how much the Ukrainian side will be malleable to finding compromises and prioritizing the cessation of bloodshed.
"If they choose another option, then, accordingly, the prospects for any plan will be negative," he added.
However, the Ukrainian leadership may well abandon the peace agreement, said Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation.
"Zelensky, like any other Ukrainian politician who could potentially sign such an agreement, risks being accused of making concessions and may try to avoid such responsibility," the expert told Izvestia.
An equally important element of the plan is the limitation of the size of the Ukrainian armed forces. The designated limit of 600,000 people should create conditions for long-term stability. Despite the fact that such a measure seems restrictive to Kiev, the proposed level leaves Ukraine with one of the most numerous armies in the world.
— Kiev still does not have a strategy for getting out of the conflict, as well as a clear strategy for its conduct. There is only a set of requirements that does not correspond to the real state of affairs, which cannot but annoy Washington and especially Trump," Tigran Meloyan noted.
Donald Trump
In his opinion, it is precisely the lack of a well-thought-out line of conduct by the Kiev authorities that significantly complicates the negotiation process.
The introduction of early elections in Ukraine within a period of up to one hundred days after the conclusion of the agreement should allow restarting the political system and forming a leadership ready for a pragmatic dialogue. In the context of an internal crisis, this step could lead to a rethink of the course and a search for more realistic solutions than relying solely on the continuation of the war.
According to Bogdan Bezpalko, certain elements of the future plan can be discussed, in particular, a cease-fire. However, even this point is automatically linked to a whole set of related conditions, from the borders and parameters of the buffer zone to the possible participation of international contingents and Ukraine's integration prospects. The expert emphasized that any proposals must inevitably be considered in a complex, since in this case each detail is connected with the others and affects the final balance of interests.
It should be borne in mind that the plan is not considered as a final document, but as a basis for further negotiations. If Kiev continues to insist on a "maximalist" approach and refuses to discuss real conditions, the conflict risks dragging on and the prospect of peace becoming even more remote.
Despite this, the Trump administration is preparing for the final phase of the conflict, Tigran Meloyan believes. According to him, Washington seeks to end the war before the situation on the front line becomes irreversible.
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