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- With a start for the future: the government has developed a plan for structural changes in the economy until 2030
With a start for the future: the government has developed a plan for structural changes in the economy until 2030
The Cabinet of Ministers has prepared a plan for structural changes in the Russian economy, calculated until 2030. It sets a long-term growth trajectory based on key parameters of employment, investment, technological development and the quality of the business environment, experts list. The document includes over 60 target indicators, grouped into seven interconnected sections. What the plan provides is in the Izvestia material.
Growth strategy
The Government has developed a plan for structural changes in the economy. Its validity period is until 2030. The document was prepared on behalf of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin spoke about the proposed measures at a government meeting.
"The document is designed to ensure the growth trajectory necessary to achieve national goals, and takes into account all the current challenges that we have to overcome," the head of government stressed.
The plan includes over 60 target indicators, grouped into seven interrelated sections. Among them, Mishustin highlighted changes in the structure of employment and consumption, improving the quality of the investment climate and the level of technological development, creating new opportunities for foreign trade, as well as increasing the effectiveness of activities in the field of defense and security. A separate set of measures is devoted to improving the conditions of competition.
In addition, the authorities expect to significantly expand the participation of young people and veterans of the special military operation in projects. The range of tasks also includes the gradual improvement of the sectoral structure of employment. Great emphasis will be placed on the influx of personnel, which is important for the manufacturing industry.
Measures have been developed aimed at increasing domestic demand for domestic goods and services, which will stimulate the development of high-tech industries, the creative economy and tourism, as well as help the formation of domestic brands with good potential.
The Prime Minister added that as part of the plan, modern management principles will be more actively implemented at enterprises. Another goal is to create an advanced technological base, including the use of robotics and artificial intelligence.
All these measures, according to Mishustin, will make it possible to improve the structure of the economy as a whole and move towards high wages, the importance of which Vladimir Putin spoke at the SPIEF.
Promising areas
The government's plan for structural transformation until 2030 sets a long-term growth trajectory based on key parameters of employment, investment, technological development and the quality of the business environment, says Investment adviser to the registry of the Central Bank, founder of the online investment university "Financology" Yulia Kuznetsova. She sees the most significant areas related to changing the structure of employment and consumption, the formation of a modern technological order, increasing the efficiency of foreign trade and the introduction of modern management principles in enterprises, including robotics and artificial intelligence.
"These measures can increase productivity, reduce business costs and accelerate industrial renewal," the Izvestia interlocutor believes.
Inna Litvinenko, Associate Professor of Economics and Management at the Russian State University of Social Technologies, considers the formation of a technological base and sovereignty to be the point around which all others are formed. And from the point of view of the internal situation in the Russian economy, it is important to ensure the employment structure of the population, the expert believes.
In turn, Associate Professor of the Department of Strategic and Innovative Development at the Financial University Mikhail Khachaturian considers the improvement of the investment climate to be one of the most important points of the plan.
— It is obvious that the key aspects of our country's development over the next 5-6 years will be stimulating the business activity of Russian businesses in the domestic market, developing this market itself, as well as expanding the range of technological development projects implemented both within existing Russian enterprises and corporations, and within startups. It is the increase in domestic business and investment activity that should become a catalyst for attracting investments from friendly and neutral countries," the expert points out.
It is necessary to improve the quality of the investment climate, because attracting investments in various industries ensures their strategic development, agrees Yuri Lyandau, Professor at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
"At the same time, it is important to properly build the legal aspects related to attracting foreign investment," he clarifies.
Litvinenko is convinced that the flow of funds necessary for the resumption of large-scale investment and high-tech production projects and scientific developments will provide economic growth that can ensure the achievement of the targets set by the government.
"And this will spur a reduction in the refinancing rate, higher salaries, stabilization of the ruble exchange rate and balancing the markets in terms of supply and demand," the economist is sure.
Thanks to the implementation of the government's system of indicators for the plan of structural changes in the economy, there is a chance to reach 4.5% inflation by 2027, the Izvestia interlocutor expects. This, in turn, will make it possible to achieve a refinancing rate of 10-11%. At the same time, GDP growth will be 3-4%, the expert predicts.
In general, target indicators create a measurable control system. They allow you to track income dynamics, the degree of technological maturity of industries, the quality of the investment climate, the effectiveness of the military-industrial complex and the level of security, says Kuznetsova.
"The availability of such metrics increases the manageability and predictability of economic policy, minimizing the risks of inefficient resource allocation," she says.
Own production
Yulia Kuznetsova is convinced that the proposed measures to improve the competitive environment can significantly strengthen the market environment. In particular, lower barriers to entry, access for small businesses to procurement and financing, unification of requirements and support for high-tech industries will create more equal conditions for market participants.
"This increases the incentives for innovation, improves the quality of goods and reduces the likelihood of excessive concentration in key sectors," explains Izvestia's interlocutor.
Against the background of the implementation of the measures provided for in the plan, it is worth preparing for an increase in domestic production, Inna Litvinenko expects. The main idea is to ensure its quality at the global level.
— Success can be achieved if Russian products can be a worthy analogue of foreign ones. First of all, we are talking about electronics, household appliances, smartphones, computers, laptops and other gadgets," the economist lists.
Today, there is a demand for high-quality products, and consumers do not always pay attention to the country of manufacture, the expert clarifies. In this context, domestic manufacturers have a chance, because the main criteria that the buyer looks at are comfort, quality and price.
"If domestic manufacturers, thanks to the measures taken by the government, can meet these characteristics, the cabinet's plan will work, and Russian goods and services will be able to satisfy not only the local market, but also countries near and far abroad,— the Izvestia interlocutor is confident.
It should be borne in mind that in order to develop foreign trade, it is necessary to expand the range, adds Yuri Lyandau.
"It is necessary to say goodbye to the practice of import substitution and start producing goods that will be in demand on international markets," the economist emphasizes.
The formation of new opportunities for foreign trade is an important point of the plan, Mikhail Khachaturian agrees. A key factor in improving the efficiency of the national economic system, in particular, will be the expansion of the range of non-primary non-energy exports.
"And stimulating the foreign economic activity of manufacturing industries will contribute, on the one hand, to solving the problem of attracting investments into the Russian economy, and on the other, to expanding the range of specialization of the domestic economy in the existing structure of the world economy," the Izvestia interlocutor points out.
In general, the measures presented in the plan contain the widest possible tools to support domestic manufacturers and improve the quality of their products, he believes.
— The authorities can create conditions. But only time will tell how effectively Russian manufacturers will be able to take advantage of these measures and offer a truly competitive product," Khachaturian summarizes.
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