Eastern vector: Russian-Chinese energy alliance takes the countries' relations to a new level

The seventh Russian-Chinese Energy Forum held in Beijing has become an event that goes beyond the business routine. The key moment that set the tone for the entire discussion was the keynote speech by the head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin. His statements caused a serious resonance in the expert community. For more information, see the Izvestia publication.

From a supplier of resources to a guarantor of energy security

As he emphasizes in his column in "Gazeta.Alexander Frolov, Deputy Director General of the National Energy Institute, said Sechin's speech marks a qualitatively new stage in relations with the East. Russia has become for China not only a supplier of oil and gas, but, more importantly, "provides the foundation for the energy security of the Chinese economy."

Frolov cites Sechin's key thesis: Russian supplies today are "the most important supporting factor in China's achievement of its strategic goals." The expert also discusses why this strategic alliance was not built earlier: "Billions of people are not a market, but a potential market. The difference is huge."

Analyzing the dynamics of Chinese demand, Frolov clearly shows that the rapid growth of energy consumption in China is a relatively recent phenomenon. Back in 2001, China was almost completely self-sufficient in gas, and its current appetites for oil and electricity have been formed only in the last two decades. Thus, the "turn to the East" occurred "as the potential market turned into a real one." This proves the strategic foresight of the Russian energy policy, which, according to the expert, has been preparing this turnaround since the end of the 2000s, since the beginning of the construction of the ESPO oil pipeline.
Pragmatism and investment

The East is for a long time. Alexander Shirov, Director of the Institute of National Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, develops this idea from the standpoint of macroeconomic analysis. He sees the energy partnership not just as a deal, but as the cornerstone of a new global architecture.

"Russian-Chinese relations represent a key element of the equation of a new global model that ensures a global balance of development and trade," the expert argues in his column in Vedomosti.

Shirov emphasizes the fundamental nature of the ongoing shift: "In fact, we are witnessing how China confidently occupies the place in the system of trade and economic relations between Russia that Europe has occupied for many decades." In his opinion, this transition, although difficult, is "fundamental" and opens up access for Russia to the most actively developing part of the globe.

Shirov's key argument, which echoes Sechin's data, is the direct link between Russian energy resources and China's global competitiveness. He cites specific figures from the report of the head of Rosneft: the cost of electricity for the industrial sector in China is more than two times lower than in the United States, and three to four times lower than in some EU countries. In today's economy, where the cost of energy is becoming a critical element, this is a direct competitive advantage that Russia is directly involved in creating.

Moreover, Shirov points to the investment power of China, which, according to Sechin's estimates, carries out a third of all global energy investments. This creates a stable and growing market for Russia for decades to come. Thus, the Eastern vector is not a forced tactical maneuver, but a strategic choice in favor of partnership with the "only industrial superpower", whose leadership is backed by enormous financial and technological resources.

The context of the crisis

Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy (Fair Russia) Mikhail Delyagin, in a column in Izvestia, discusses Sechin's statements in a broader geopolitical context. While the Russian economy is demonstrating "stability in the face of the global crisis of the West," Western countries themselves are experiencing processes that the expert characterizes as agony.

The key thesis of the expert is based on the contrast between the crisis in the West and the formation of a new, stable model in the East. Delyagin points out that the sanctions have led to a fundamentally new phenomenon for the West — a new significant increase in the cost of energy — "not by percentages, but by several times." This puts Western economies in a losing position compared to Russia and China, where the cost of electricity for industry is "three to four times lower than in some EU countries."

In these circumstances, as Delyagin emphasizes, the union of Russia and China provided them not only with energy, but also with financial security. The response to the sanctions was the transfer of payments to national currencies, and gold is increasingly taking the place of the dollar, in which Russia and China are leaders.

According to Delyagin, the "synthesis of Russian resources and the Chinese technological platform" that Sechin spoke about reliably ensures stability, while the West, deprived of access to Russia's competitive resource base and China's component base, risks "losing technological and economic subjectivity," according to the head of Rosneft.

Thus, analysts agreed that the "eastern vector" is not just the right one, but the only correct and timely response to the challenges of global restructuring. This is a path that allows Russia not only to adapt to new realities, but to actively shape them, turning challenges into opportunities for national development.