Pull the frame: Europe is trying to reshape the US plan for Ukraine
Consultations on the US peace plan in Geneva have ended. Washington and Kiev announced "significant progress" in bringing their positions closer and preparing an updated version of the document. According to media reports, the next step should be its final approval between the United States and Ukraine, followed by transfer to Moscow. At the same time, the Russian capital is not yet familiar with the updated text. At the same time, European capitals have put forward their own version of the framework agreement, which the State Duma regards as an attempt by Brussels to reshape Washington's proposals in the interests of the EU. Moscow believes that the United States will establish direct contact in the near future. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a conversation with Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, reiterated that the American project could form the basis of a future peace agreement.
How did the negotiations in Geneva end?
The United States and Ukraine have prepared an "updated and clarified framework document for peace" at the Geneva talks. The discussion lasted several hours. The Ukrainian delegation included Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov and head of the Presidential Office Andriy Ermak. The United States was represented by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as well as a group of State Department officials. The main negotiations were conducted between Kiev and Washington.
At the same time, the Europeans did not stand aside either. The heads of the offices of the President of the European Commission and the President of the European Council, Bjorn Seibert and Pedro Lurti, attended the talks. National security advisers from France, Germany and the United Kingdom were present.
Rubio said after the meetings that it was "the most productive day in a very long time." According to him, the new plan has two versions — 26 and 28 points. It may change in the coming days.
— We want to coordinate this as soon as possible. We have made great progress, we have moved forward, so I am optimistic that we will resolve this as soon as possible, very soon," he said.
Following the talks in Geneva, a joint statement was issued by Ukraine and the United States. The parties stressed that the negotiations were "constructive and focused" and made it possible to achieve significant progress in bringing positions closer. The document says that the United States and Ukraine will continue to work on the details in order to achieve a just and sustainable peace.
It is difficult to judge the effectiveness of negotiations, says Oleg Barabanov, program director of the Valdai Club. On the one hand, both Rubio and Ermak are satisfied with the result and declare great progress.
— At the same time, Rubio also said that Americans are well aware of Moscow's "red lines" and try not to cross them. So it looks like a compromise option, and it's hard to say how much Russia will like it, but it's obvious that Russia's "red lines" are outlined and clear," he said.
According to media reports, the most controversial points of the initial plan were taken beyond the scope of the current discussions: a ban on Ukraine's accession to NATO, restrictions on the size of its army and package decisions on sanctions against Russia.
Rubio stressed at the talks that Washington knows Moscow's "red lines" and understands its position. Probably, in this context, he added that November 27 is not the final deadline for making a decision on the plan for Ukraine.
Curiously, the Secretary of State has not even seen the European version of the document. Washington is ready to take into account the approaches of the allies, but they intend to proceed from their own project and will continue to work on the American version of the plan.
Any words from the lips of European politicians demonstrate an increasingly less concealed desire to continue the war with Russia, Dmitry Novikov, first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia. According to him, Trump's current plan is unlikely to suit the Russian Federation, but Moscow is ready to negotiate on it.
"Suddenly, there are Europeans who say that even this plan, which raises many questions in Russia, they are going to reshape, rewrite and make it much less acceptable for discussion," he said.
The European Plan is a counter-proposal to the 28-point document proposed by the United States. It was prepared in Paris, Berlin and London. Although the plan is based on an American document, significant changes are proposed for each item. In particular, it stipulates more strictly the preservation of Ukraine's sovereignty, does not exclude its accession to NATO, lobbies for milder restrictions on the size of the army, and separately establishes the use of frozen Russian assets to rebuild the country.
What is written in this document is not acceptable to Russia, Dmitry Novikov stressed.
Why Moscow may not adopt a new plan for Ukraine
Moscow is not aware of the changes made to the American document in Geneva. According to Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian leader, Russia has not received any information.
At the same time, Vladimir Putin spoke cautiously about the first version of this document, which Moscow received through its channels of interaction with the United States. The President only noted that the document could form the basis of a peace agreement.
Putin repeated the same thesis on November 24 in a conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He stressed that the proposals of the US peace plan in the version that was submitted to the Kremlin are in line with the discussions of the Russian-American meeting in Alaska, held on August 15.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump during a meeting in Alaska
Moscow has repeatedly stated that the main goal of the peace agreement should be to eliminate the root causes of the conflict. This was also stated by Chinese President Xi Jinping during a telephone conversation with Trump on November 24. In addition, Beijing expressed hope for a fair agreement on Ukraine to be reached as soon as possible and expressed support for US actions towards a peaceful settlement.
Ankara, in turn, confirmed its intention to provide all possible assistance to the negotiation process and its readiness to continue providing the Istanbul platform for this purpose. The leaders agreed to "intensify Russian-Turkish contacts on the Ukrainian dossier at various levels," the Kremlin's press service said.
Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov spoke to the press on the same day, saying that many provisions of the US peace plan, which was discussed in Alaska, are indeed acceptable to the Russian Federation. At the same time, there is a lot of speculation surrounding the American settlement plan, and Moscow believes only the information received from the United States.
— I have just mentioned specifically the option that we have reviewed. But once again, I want to emphasize in addition to what the president said. He clearly said that, yes, we have seen this version of the plan, but no one has conducted any specific negotiations with Russian representatives on this issue," the Kremlin spokesman said.
Nevertheless, Yermak has already stated that the 28-point peace plan, in which everyone saw him, no longer exists. Many of its provisions have been adjusted, and some have been completely excluded. The Financial Times reports that only 19 of the 28 items remain.
Of course, the Geneva version of Trump's plan has less chance of being accepted by Moscow, Barabanov stressed. However, there is still uncertainty, as specific edits to the document are unknown.
In some ways, the negotiations in Switzerland resemble the meeting of the leaders of Russia and the United States in Anchorage. The initial proposals of the parties are being corrected by Brussels and Kiev in order to leave out what does not correspond to their interests, political analyst Vadim Kortunov told Izvestia.
— This tactic is very clear. The question remains whether Trump is ready to defend the package agreement. Because it would be beneficial for Ukraine, in addition to the truce that it needs, to make as few political commitments as possible," the expert noted.
Will the grain deal come back
Against this background, Erdogan's words are noteworthy. Before the talks with Putin, he repeatedly told the press about his intention to discuss the issue of the grain deal. The last time was at the G20 summit in Johannesburg.
— The grain corridor project was aimed at paving the way for peace, but it did not receive further development. I will ask Mr. Putin about this again," Erdogan said.
Following the talks with Putin, not a word was said about her. It is worth noting that the topic appeared on the agenda quite unexpectedly. The grain deal has not been working for 2.5 years — since the summer of 2023. The last time they talked about it was last March during the talks between Moscow and Washington in Saudi Arabia.
Following the meeting, the White House announced that the United States, Russia and Ukraine had reached an agreement on safe navigation and a maritime "truce" in the Black Sea through separate agreements in order to unblock trade in grain, fuel and other goods. However, in the end it did not end with anything, because it was still tied to the issue of sanctions against Moscow.
The agreement on the grain deal was concluded in July 2022 in Istanbul with the mediation of the United Nations and Turkey. Her task was to resume the export of Ukrainian grain and food from three Black Sea ports — Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny. Russia could facilitate the export of its grain and fertilizers.
The agreement was extended several times — in November 2022, March and May 2023 - and was actually valid for about a year, until July 2023. During this time, more than a thousand flights were carried out on the initiative and almost 33 million tons of grain and other food products were exported.
However, Moscow withdrew from the agreement due to the fact that the EU did not fulfill its part of the agreements. Formally, food and fertilizers were not sanctioned, but restrictions on payments, insurance, logistics and, above all, the disconnection of Rosselkhoznadzor from SWIFT prevented exports. Dmitry Peskov said at the time that Russia was ready to return to the agreement "as soon as concrete results are achieved" on lifting restrictions on Russian agricultural exporters.
The grain deal is primarily Turkey's interest. Minimizing the risks to navigation in the Black Sea meets Ankara's requirements, political analyst Vadim Kortunov said in a conversation with Izvestia.
"It also gives another additional argument to the West to say that even if it is not possible to agree on a full resolution of the contradictions that led to the conflict, it is possible to gain a certain number of practical solutions that will still allow Trump to declare that he has settled this conflict," he said..
Even if it is renegotiated, it will not guarantee the success of the negotiation process. It is likely that the fighting will simply continue in parallel with the grain deal, the political scientist added.
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