The economist estimated the impact of the increase in cash on inflation and the shadow sector

The increase in the volume of cash in circulation has become a significant factor for the financial market, but its impact on inflation and the banking system remains limited. Evgeny Shatov, a partner at Capital Lab, told Izvestia on November 24.

"An increase in cash turnover is becoming a macro factor that affects several contours of the economy at once. First of all, one should not expect a direct sharp inflationary effect from the growth of cash. It is not the volume of paper money itself that matters, but whether these funds turn into sustainable additional consumer demand. If people hold cash for fear of technical failures, but do not spend it faster than before, the inflationary momentum will be weak. But if the growth of cash coincides with the revival of consumption, then the speed of money circulation accelerates, and this can add several tenths of a percent to inflation," the economist said.

According to him, for banks, such dynamics means a temporary reduction in liquidity, as part of the funds are withdrawn from deposits and accounts. For large players, this is a manageable situation, whereas for regional and banks with a high proportion of retail funding, it can create an additional burden and increase the cost of attracting resources.

The growing share of cash, the economist said, also facilitates gray settlements and informal transactions. This does not lead to an automatic expansion of the shadow sector, but creates conditions favorable for such behavior.

"The forecast for further dynamics depends on two factors: the stability of the digital infrastructure and the behavior of households in a high-stakes environment. In the short term (in the coming months), the volume of cash is likely to remain elevated, but the growth rate will decrease. The peak demand for reserve cash has already passed, and as soon as digital services stabilize, some of the funds will return to the banking system. In the long term, the trend remains downward: the share of cash in the economy has been slowly but steadily declining in recent years, as non-cash payments are deeply integrated into everyday services. Even large surges like the current one do not change this trajectory, but are temporary in nature and more reflect society's reaction to technological and infrastructural risks," the expert concluded.

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On the same day, according to Central Bank data reviewed by Izvestia, it became known that the volume of cash in circulation jumped by 659 billion rubles in three months. This is five times more than in the same period of 2024. The Central Bank noted that citizens began to withdraw cash more often due to the increased frequency of mobile Internet failures.

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