Plan or gone: Kiev is ready to disrupt negotiations on the settlement of the conflict

The Ukrainian settlement has noticeably intensified: the American initiative was received in Moscow and Kiev. Consultations on the "Trump plan" were held in Geneva on November 23, without the participation of the Russian side. Washington and Kiev claim that the document is at the final stage of approval. Moscow had previously admitted that the White House's plan could form the basis of a peace agreement. However, it is unclear how much the version that will eventually be presented to the Kremlin after consultations between the Americans and Ukrainians and Europeans will differ from the 28-point document currently in the hands of the Russian Federation. Moreover, once again there is a considerable risk of disruption of the negotiation track. In Brussels and Kiev, they do not hide their indignation at a number of provisions of the plan and are trying to work out their own, more pro-Ukrainian, plan. Against this background, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are capable of giving the negotiation process a "bloody background" – that is, organizing terrorist attacks or provocations, Rodion Miroshnik, the Russian Foreign Ministry's ambassador for crimes of the Kiev regime, told Izvestia.

Ukraine is capable of provocation

On November 23, the delegations of Europe, the United States and Ukraine held talks in Geneva. These were consultations on a 28-point plan, some of which are categorically not satisfied with either Brussels or Kiev. The Ukrainian delegation included the head of the Office of the President, Andriy Ermak, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Rustem Umerov, and the head of military intelligence, Kirill Budanov (included in the Rosfinmonitoring list of terrorists and extremists).

Europe was represented at the talks by the national security advisers of France, Great Britain and Germany. In addition, representatives of EU institutions are participating in the discussion. It is noteworthy that, according to the Washington Post and Politico, the Geneva group includes Bjorn Seibert, Chief of Staff to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. In other words, the European Commission has lobbied for its participation in the negotiations. This is an important moment for the negotiation process, which can seriously complicate it, given the fact that senior EU officials have been diligently adding fuel to the fire over the past few years.

Nevertheless, following the talks, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that it was the most productive meeting since the beginning of the negotiation process under Trump.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio

Photo: TASS/AP/Martial Trezzini

— Obviously, in the end it should be signed by the presidents, but I feel quite comfortable that this will happen, given the progress that has been achieved, - he said.

However, it is necessary to understand that the Europeans want to use the meetings in Switzerland in order to "correct" the American document and enter their own terms into it, seeking more advantageous points for Kiev. For example, Ursula von der Leyen has already demanded that the reduction of the Armed Forces and the change of Ukraine's borders included in the plan be prevented.

"The current version of the document, although it is at the final stage of approval, already reflects most of the key Ukrainian priorities,— Umerov said after the first day.

In other words, Moscow may eventually receive an updated document that will be noticeably different from the one that the American side initially submitted. Moreover, there is a considerable risk of disruption of the negotiation process. We must not forget that back in 2022, after Moscow and Kiev reached an agreement in Istanbul, Ukraine refused to engage in dialogue at the request of London.

— The danger of Ukrainians organizing terrorist attacks or provocations "under a false flag" is also great. In the context of international and internal Ukrainian political tension, Kiev's attempts may be quite likely either to distract attention from the corruption scandal or to give a "bloody background" to the negotiations proposed by the United States, Rodion Miroshnik, Ambassador—at-large of the Russian Foreign Ministry for crimes of the Kiev regime, told Izvestia.

Trump's "plan" will change

The initial document of the US administration, which appeared in the press on November 21, was called "difficult" in Ukraine, and in Europe it was called "Kiev's capitulation." Senior EU officials, according to media reports, believe that Trump's plan is "a list of concessions that meet Russia's demands."

It is possible that a revision of the document will appear in Geneva, the terms of which will be unacceptable to the Russian Federation, Dmitry Solonnikov, director of the Institute of Modern State Development, warned in an interview with Izvestia.

At the same time, Western media write that Ukraine's European allies agree on one thing — "a lot more work is needed," and the plan in its current form cannot be accepted. French President Emmanuel Macron said on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Johannesburg that the American proposals are a "good basis" for a peace agreement, but they are only a "base for work that needs to be reviewed."

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on November 21 that Moscow had received the document through its channels of interaction with the United States. The Russian leader noted that the plan could become the basis for a future agreement.

— I believe that he (the document. — Ed.) can be the basis for a final peaceful settlement. But this text is not discussed with us in detail. And I can guess why. The reason, I suppose, is the same. The US administration has so far failed to secure the consent of the Ukrainian side. Ukraine is against it," Vladimir Putin said.

At first glance, the assessments of the Russian and French leadership are similar, but there are doubts that the leaders put the same thing in them. It is possible that Paris fears the adoption of the original version of the American plan. However, now time is playing against the Europeans and Kiev.

Russia may well achieve its goals militarily, but this does not mean that Moscow is closed to negotiations, the Russian leader stressed last Friday. On November 24, Vladimir Putin is scheduled to have a telephone conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. According to the Turkish side, they will discuss the issue of a peaceful settlement in Ukraine and the "grain deal."

Trump has set clear time limits — to give consent to his plan by November 27. Otherwise, according to media reports, Washington may stop military and intelligence support for Kiev. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is already expressing doubts that an agreement on the US peace plan will be reached by Thursday.

— I do not want to say that I am pessimistic, but at the moment I am not sure that in the next few days it will come to the decision that the President [of the United States Donald] wants. Trump," he said.

Europe and Ukraine will sabotage any proposals for a peace treaty, said Nikolai Novik, deputy director of the Center for the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy.

"The situation may change with the weakening of the internal positions of Zelensky and his entourage in the country against the background of corruption and other scandals, the appearance of ultimatum demands from allies (the United States) or sensitive defeats at the front," he told Izvestia.

According to him, the finalizing of the points of a possible peace agreement by the Europeans is a classic example of a "zero-sum game." An improvement in the position of one side necessarily leads to a deterioration in the position of the other.

At the same time, the Geneva talks are just a stop on the way for the delegation led by Driscoll to Moscow. The Americans are due to arrive in Russia at the end of next week, that is, after Trump's deadline for Zelensky. The WSJ writes that Driscoll is seeking a personal meeting with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov. And The New York Times reports that the US presidential administration is preparing separate negotiations with Russia. This information is not officially confirmed and remains at the level of press reports.

Europe has prepared its own document

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal, citing sources, writes that some EU members, including Finland and other "hawks," are preparing an alternative peace plan. On the evening of November 23, his version was published by the British The Telegraph. That is, we are no longer talking about finalizing the American plan, but developing our own, which, however, it is unclear when and to whom they want to present.

According to the publication, the European Union proposes a general ceasefire on land, in the air and at sea with international monitoring led by the United States and Ukraine's allies and a special mechanism for detecting and reviewing violations. The Russian Federation and Ukraine should exchange prisoners of war according to the "all for all" formula and release the detained civilians. Territorial issues are proposed to be discussed based on the current line of contact, but finally resolved after a sustained ceasefire. After the agreement, the parties undertake not to change the borders by force.

Ukraine's sovereignty is being confirmed, and no one is forcing it to remain neutral. Kiev receives legally secured security guarantees by analogy with Article 5 of NATO, without restrictions on the size of the Armed Forces and the defense industry, with the right to deploy allied forces and the possibility of joining the alliance and the EU.

Ukraine remains a nuclear-weapon-free state within the framework of the NPT, receives control over the Zaporizhia NPP, Kakhovskaya HPP, as well as free passage along the Dnieper River and control over the Kinburnskaya Spit.

Finally, the economic block involves the restoration of Ukraine and compensation for damage, including through Russian assets that remain frozen. At the same time, Kiev and its partners are freely developing economic cooperation. Sanctions against Russia can be gradually eased after a stable peace and automatically returned in case of violation of the agreement. The final element is the launch of broad negotiations on European security with the participation of all OSCE countries.

By creating their own version of the conflict resolution plan, the Europeans are purposefully trying to confuse, complicate or even disrupt the negotiation process, says Pavel Feldman, professor at the Academy of Labor and Social Relations.

— In all likelihood, their initiative was put forward in defiance of Trump and his peacekeeping efforts. London and Brussels pretend that in addition to the American 28-point plan, there are alternative proposals that equally deserve attention. In fact, they are handing the negotiators a document written at Zelensky's dictation and completely divorced from reality," the expert stressed.

The Europeans know perfectly well that Moscow demands not just a cease-fire, but the elimination of the root causes of the conflict, Feldman noted. At the same time, in their document they still demand to stop the fighting without preconditions.

Thus, the negotiation process may be delayed and mired in coordination procedures and bureaucratic delays. This would completely suit the Europeans, who are interested in the longest possible armed phase of the conflict, Feldman is sure. Now, the expert concluded, the Americans must show their will and not allow the EU to manipulate the negotiation process.