The economist named the reasons for the collapse of bitcoin below $ 85 thousand and gave a forecast by the end of the year.

The bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate dropped below $85,000 amid a large-scale withdrawal of investors from risky assets and an increase in the liquidation of shoulder positions. Evgeny Shatov, a partner at Capital Lab, told Izvestia on November 21 about the causes of the collapse and the likely scenarios for the movement of the cryptocurrency.

"The reasons for the sharp drop are, firstly, the deterioration of the macrophone. A decrease in the likelihood of a rapid easing of the Fed's policy and a general flight from risk assets led to sales: after a correction in technology stocks and a deterioration in expectations for dynamics in December, crypto assets lost a significant part of their liquidity support. It was against this background that the sharpest daily declines were recorded in mid-November. Secondly, the reason is in the market mechanics," the expert explained.

He clarified that in the first days of November, the daily volume of liquidations exceeded $1-1.3 billion, which increased the decline. An additional factor was the acceleration of outflows from some spot ETFs for bitcoin, which deprived the market of steady demand.

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Shatov stated that by the end of the year, the base scenario remains the movement of bitcoin in a wide volatile range of $ 78-95 thousand. According to him, the dynamics will depend on the behavior of the technology sector, the Fed's rhetoric and flows into ETFs. If global markets stabilize, the exchange rate may rise to the range of $ 95-105 thousand, but consolidation below $ 85 thousand will open the way to $ 81 thousand and a high-risk zone of about $ 80 thousand, where the probability of new liquidations increases.

"Thus, it is not the end of the cycle that is being observed at the moment, but a tough phase of clearing the market from the "shoulder canopy" against the background of macrostress. By the end of 2025, the dynamics of the bitcoin exchange rate will be determined by three factors: the mood of global markets, the parameters of the reversal of flows in spot ETFs and the stability of the $85 thousand level," the economist concluded.

On the same day, it became known, according to the Binance crypto exchange, that the cost of bitcoin collapsed by almost 10%, breaking through the April low and falling below $85 thousand.

Prior to that, on November 14, it was reported that the bitcoin exchange rate had fallen by more than $95,000, dropping to its lowest levels since early May. As of 15:41 Moscow time, the price of bitcoin fell by 7.97% and reached the level of $ 94,863. A few minutes later, by 15:45 Moscow time, bitcoin was trading at around $94,900.

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