Time is coming: Russia expects dialogue with the United States on disarmament in January

Russia is ready to resume dialogue with the United States on nuclear arms reduction, and the Conference on Disarmament may hold a meeting in January 2026. Gennady Gatilov, Russia's permanent representative to the UN office and other international organizations in Geneva, told Izvestia about this. According to him, so far it has not been possible to make serious progress in restarting full-fledged bilateral contacts between the Russian Federation and the United States. However, there are points of contact on biological weapons control: the United States now supports verification of BTWC controls. Moscow expects to receive details of the American initiative at the working group's session in December. Experts believe that opportunities for dialogue remain, and the Conference on Disarmament may become a suitable venue.

Negotiations between Russia and the United States on nuclear weapons

The control of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons, remains one of the main issues in relations between Moscow and Washington. US President Donald Trump said in mid-November that he would like to hold a meeting on denuclearization with Russia and China. At the same time, he did not give a detailed answer to Moscow's proposal to preserve the main parameters of the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty (START Treaty) for a year. This agreement expires at the beginning of next year.

Russia is ready to resume dialogue with the United States on nuclear arms reduction, and the Conference on Disarmament (CD) session starting in January may become a platform for this, Gennady Gatilov, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN office and other international organizations in Geneva, told Izvestia.

"Russia is ready to resume dialogue with the United States on reducing nuclear weapons if appropriate conditions are created for this," Gatilov said. — In order to create prerequisites for such a dialogue, Russia has announced its readiness to continue adhering to the central quantitative restrictions under the START Treaty for one year after February 5, 2026. And this measure will be viable only if the United States acts the same way and does not take steps that undermine the balance of existing deterrence capabilities. After all, as you know, it takes two to tango. We assume that this topic will be discussed during the next session of the Conference on Disarmament, which will begin in January 2026.

According to him, despite the initial American signals of readiness for dialogue, it has not yet been possible to make serious progress in resuming full-fledged bilateral contacts, including at the Geneva venue. The problems remain, but it is not the fault of the Russian side.

"As a result, so far our cooperation with the Americans on arms control, disarmament and non—proliferation issues has been limited to sporadic contacts at the working level within the framework of relevant international forums, such as, for example, the Conference on Disarmament," the Russian Permanent Representative in Geneva stressed.

The Conference on Disarmament, established in 1978, is the world's main forum for developing agreements to control this area. It replaced the previous conference of the Committee on Disarmament. Political scientist Denis Denisov told Izvestia that there is a huge demand for disarmament in the world right now, and in this regard, the conference is a suitable venue. It can become a driver for negotiations on other issues, not only on nuclear weapons.

Russian officials have repeatedly stated the need to restore dialogue with the United States on disarmament issues, which was interrupted by the American side in February 2022. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed in June, "efforts must be made to restore equal relations." However, so far the process of eliminating irritants in bilateral relations has slowed down: the date of the third round of negotiations has not been determined. Although the parties are continuing contacts, Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said.

Donald Trump's intention to resume nuclear testing does not add stability either. He justified his decision by saying that other countries were allegedly doing the same thing. Moscow has not received any explanations from the head of the White House, including through diplomatic channels. During a meeting of the Russian Security Council on November 5, Vladimir Putin instructed the Foreign Ministry, the Ministry of Defense and the special services to prepare a proposal on the expediency of starting work on preparations for retaliatory nuclear tests.

The prospects for negotiations on the START Treaty remain, but the ball is on the American side. The main problem is the lack of coordinated and approved strategic approaches of the United States in the field of defense. For example, the US authorities have postponed the publication of a new national security strategy. Although the lack of a settlement of the Ukrainian conflict cannot be discounted, Dmitry Stefanovich, an employee of the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, said in an interview with Izvestia.

Will the BTWC verification mechanism be created

Biological weapons control remains a separate issue. The Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction (BTWC), adopted in 1972, was signed by 189 States. However, the document lacks provisions describing clear and unbiased procedures for verifying its compliance.

Russia has consistently advocated the development of a universal legally binding protocol to the BTWC on verification. Back in 2001, the United States declared that verification mechanisms would be ineffective and opposed their introduction. However, at the 80th session of the UN General Assembly in New York, Donald Trump said that the United States would lead international efforts to control biological weapons. The American leader suggested actively using artificial intelligence to verify compliance with the BTWC.

At the same time, Washington has not taken any practical steps to implement Trump's initiative. There is no explanation yet of what exactly the US president meant by creating a "BTWC verification system based on artificial intelligence."

"The issue of developing a verification mechanism for the BTWC is a priority for Russia and is currently being promoted by us within the framework of the Working Group on Strengthening the BTWC," the diplomat stressed.Gennady Gatilov. — By the way, the next session of this format will be held in Geneva on December 8-12. Perhaps at the upcoming event, the American delegation will finally give concrete proposals to develop the initiative of Donald Trump.

Russia is ready to consider all the ideas of the United States in a constructive manner, just like any other state. However, there is not even an internationally recognized definition of the term "artificial intelligence" yet. In this regard, Russia generally welcomes the use of scientific and technological achievements and various know-how in the framework of the future BTWC verification mechanism, but does not consider it necessary or sufficient.

"We believe it is important to develop comprehensive verification procedures within the framework of the BTWC that would not be limited to AI algorithms alone, but would therefore be trustworthy and based on the existing practice of relevant international organizations in this field, as well as reports from previously functioning expert bodies at the convention site," Gatilov concluded.

Dmitry Stefanovich noted that AI and advanced technologies in general may well be used for monitoring and verification in the interests of WMD nonproliferation. At the same time, the key issue is to coordinate approaches to the use of technologies, which will require deep immersion of participants in various modes into the algorithms and the database of tools used. There are also doubts about the readiness of the United States for such transparency, the expert concluded.