The road from nowhere: Latvia proposes to dismantle the railway to Russia
The Latvian media replicated the opinion of an American expert who advised the Baltic Republic to dismantle the railway tracks leading to Russia "for safety reasons." This advice coincided with the point of view of Latvian nationalists who propose the same thing. Latvia itself tried to kill the transit that supports the hardware, and now it has to spend a lot of money to maintain an idle infrastructure. However, local "patriots" propose a radical solution to the problem — to blow up or at least dig up the railway tracks leading to Russia. The details of this story can be found in the Izvestia article.
Decline and ruin
The most productive year for the state-owned enterprise Latvian Railways (LZHD) was 2013, when it transported 55.8 million tons. Then there was a smooth decline, which later gave way to a collapse. Russia began to withdraw its transit from the state, which was becoming more and more unfriendly every year. If in 2019 the volume of cargo transportation by rail in Latvia exceeded 40 million tons, then in 2024 — 11.5 million tons. In a critical situation, the Latvian Ministry of Communications is trying to negotiate with the countries of Central Asia on the organization of an alternative logistics option. However, last year, Russia and Belarus still accounted for half of the cargo traffic. The largest group of transported goods is grain. In addition, the Russian Railways intercepted a lucrative contract in Estonia, taking advantage of the fact that Tallinn had banned its railway from any cooperation with the Russians. Now LZHD carries palm oil through Estonia to Russia.
Over the past four years, a large number of employees of the Latvian Railways concern have been laid off. If in 2019 about 10 thousand people worked there, now it is several times less. Moreover, the remaining employees of the LZHD recently discovered that they had not been paid their mandatory social insurance contributions on time recently: due to lack of funds. The trade union said that they had already stopped counting how many complaints they had written to the ministry about this, and all without result. And recently, the Latvian Railway has carried out a new wave of layoffs. At the moment, the number of employees of the Russian Railways barely exceeds 3 thousand people: after 270 more employees were laid off in October.
According to the company, the new cuts are related to "the termination of some freight car repair services, changes in national security legislation, as well as the reorganization of freight transportation services." Explanations are needed here. Latvia recently passed a law according to which only citizens of the country can work at enterprises of "critical infrastructure", which include the railway. Meanwhile, historically, the majority of Russian Railways employees are Russians and Russian—speaking. As you know, many Latvian Russians received the status of "non-citizens" in the early 90s and continue to live with it now. And some of the non-citizens subsequently took Russian and Belarusian citizenship and Latvian residence permits.
Currently, the citizens of Russia and Belarus who worked there were asked to leave the LZHD. The next in line are non—citizens. Explanatory work is currently being carried out with them: they warn that if they do not apply for citizenship in the coming months, they will lose their jobs next.
The easiest way to dismantle
Last year, the losses of the Latvian Railways amounted to €39 million. Latvian Railways, which six years ago was the most profitable state-owned company in the country, has now turned into an unprofitable, hopelessly subsidized enterprise. In order to keep it afloat, the government has invested €165 million over the past four years.
As a result, the opinion is gradually taking root in the country's ruling elite that the railway leading to Russia should be dismantled altogether, since it causes more problems than income. One of the first to hint at this was the former Prime Minister, a citizen of the United States, Krisjanis Karins, who in 2021 said that transit from Russia does not enrich the whole of Latvia, but only individuals. As an alternative, Karins proposed to arrange a "reindustrialization" and create high-tech enterprises producing expensive products.
Krisjanis Karins
Riga City Assembly deputy Maris Micherevskis (Code for Riga party) told the press: "Anyone who follows what is happening in Ukraine knows that Russia receives its goods by rail. If we dismantled the railway leading to Russia, we would reduce the volume of military supplies in the event of an attack. However, we have a kind of political businessmen who are waiting for the war to end, and then we will send sprats to Russia, and the Russians will come to us and buy apartments and houses."
This point of view was also supported by the influential businessman Geert Rungainis, who is closely associated with the government. On TV3, he said that now the railway leading to Russia may be needed only by the "invading forces," but there is no real benefit from it. "As long as we trade with the enemy and produce low-value-added products, we have no incentive to fight corruption and compete on the global stage. Because this type of competition is a challenge. We need to be ready for it," he said. The businessman is decidedly not satisfied with the fact that even now Russia is one of Latvia's largest trading partners. According to Rungainis, "the Latvian economy will only benefit if the rails in the eastern direction are dismantled."
Recently, the Latvian media distributed an interview with Colin Smith, an employee of the well-known American analytical center RAND Corporation (recognized as an undesirable organization in Russia). Smith, who has been involved in military engineering in U.S. missions around the world for almost 30 years, said that if Latvia wants to prevent a Russian invasion, it finally needs to eliminate its Russian-gauge railway tracks. "The only reason they are able to supply their soldiers today is by using the railway. This is exactly how Russia is waging war: using the railway connection. If the Baltic states want to prevent an invasion, eliminate their Russian-gauge railways. Get rid of them," the American urged.
In his opinion, all the railway tracks that are located east of the city of Daugavpils and up to the Russian border should disappear. "Do you need a railway to Daugavpils? Sure. Is there a need for a railway from Daugavpils to Lithuania in the south? Sure. But everything else, in my opinion, should just disappear.
An insidious phobia game
Political scientist, editor of the Russian edition Baltnews.com Andrey Starikov, in a conversation with Izvestia, expressed the opinion that Latvia could indeed dismantle the railway tracks leading to Russia.
— The logic here is largely the same as that which the Latvians followed in the 90s, driving to bankruptcy and selling off for scrap the powerful industry left to them from the USSR. Russians and Russian speakers worked mainly at those enterprises, just as they do now on the railway. It was believed that "for state security purposes" it was necessary to deprive the Russian community of its economic support, disintegrate it, atomize it: and economic losses are "collateral damage", a price that can and should be paid, the political scientist emphasizes.
In 2018, American advisers provoked a crisis in the Latvian banking sector. Then, the United States, under the pretext of combating "gray", "suspicious" money, forced Latvia to tighten the rules of its banks so much that they had to abandon the storage of deposits belonging to residents of the CIS countries. "Thus ended the dream of creating a "Baltic Switzerland."
"This is how the country lost an important source of income, taking another big step towards becoming a provincial backwater," says Starikov.
There is also a more recent example of the application of this kind of logic — the recent withdrawal of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia from the common BRELL power grid with Russia and Belarus. As a result, electricity prices have increased in the Baltics, and the process of supplying electricity has become more unstable. But the Western allies welcomed this step: the Baltic states' withdrawal from the BRALL energy system was recently awarded the "Project of the Year" award by the American Institute of Project Management (Project Management Institute).
According to Andrey Starikov, in the optics of the leadership of the Baltic states, the concept of "security" is perceived outside the laws of ordinary logic.
— They think like this: "As long as we are connected to the BRALL system, we are in danger because we are dependent on the Russian Federation. As long as the Russian gas pipeline reaches us, it poses a threat to us. As long as we receive Russian goods, we are in danger. As long as tourists from Russia come to us, and Russian money is in our banks and feeding us, this poses a huge risk." This is a completely perverted worldview," the expert emphasizes.
He adds that the United States has learned to play on the phobias of the Balts, turning them to its advantage.
— For Americans, this is an understandable strategy, their long-standing formula: "The more the United States is in Europe, the less Russia will be there." The Baltic States are now the main vehicle of this formula in the Eastern European theater. Therefore, it is possible that the railway to Russia will indeed be dismantled. True, paved roads towards the Russian Federation probably won't be specially dismantled, but they are no longer being repaired much, so over time everything will fall apart by itself. The situation is moving towards closing the borders, following the example of what Lithuania and Belarus have already done," the expert concludes.
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