The economist named the base scenario of the Moscow Exchange index quotes

The Russian market has been undergoing a protracted correction for several weeks, and the morning drop in the Moscow Exchange index to 2,494.18 points is not a sign of a collapse or the beginning of a systemic crisis. Evgeny Shatov, a partner at Capital Lab, told Izvestia on November 18.

"In fact, since the end of October, the market has been in a downward correction and sideways movement phase: the index has been returning from local highs to around 2500 for several weeks, periodically breaking it down, as it did in early November, when IMOEX2 updated the minimum since December 2024. This is not a one—time collapse, but a series of attempts to find a "new normal" level, taking into account sanctions, a strong ruble and a high interest rate," the economist said.

He noted that the current decline is not related to a momentary panic, but reflects the market's attempts to find a "new normal" level against the backdrop of tight monetary policy, sanctions pressure and a strong ruble. Shatov explained that the recent reduction in the key rate to 16.5% did not come as a surprise to the market, since "the absolute rate level is still extremely tight," and high yields on risk-free instruments continue to compete with stocks.

The economist stressed that the range of 2450-2600 points is the benchmark for the nearest consolidation, while a serious decline below 2400 is possible only with the appearance of new external shocks.

According to him, the assessment of the situation for the economy remains cautiously neutral. Investors note a high country risk premium, but there are no signs of a systemic crisis: the banking system is stable, the domestic borrowing market is functioning, and companies have adapted to the new conditions. Shatov stressed that it is too early to talk about a reversal to growth, however, predictable monetary policy easing, clarity on sanctions against large issuers and confirmation of stable corporate profits may become factors of future recovery.

On the same day, it became known that the Moscow Exchange index fell by 0.29%, dropping to a minimum of 2,494.18 points. This is evidenced by the trading data at 7:04 Moscow time. By 7:15 a.m. Moscow time, the decline slowed to 0.13%, the indicator was trading at 2,498.31 points.

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