The expert announced a possible reduction in the key rate at the December meeting of the Central Bank.

At the upcoming meeting of the Central Bank (CB) on the key interest rate (KC), the regulator may lower the rate again by 0.5-1%. However, the meeting will be held only in December, so it is impossible to make any accurate forecasts now. This opinion was expressed by Georgy Ostapkovich, scientific director of the HSE Center for Market Research, in an interview with Izvestia on November 18.

According to him, it is the dynamics of inflationary processes that will determine the further actions of the Central Bank — reducing the rate or keeping it at the current level.

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The expert stressed that economic indicators are affected not only by the market situation, but also by the high geopolitical background, the unpredictability of which creates additional risks in forecasting. At the same time, Ostapkovich admitted that the Central Bank may continue its policy of easing monetary policy, which was initiated earlier. According to him, it is possible to reduce the rate by 50 basis points, as last time, or even by 100 points— to 15.5%.

"Such a decision may be due to a sharp cooling of the economy, which is experiencing a shortage of cash liquidity due to the high interest rate. The decrease could be a signal to businesses about the regulator's willingness to support investment activity," he said.

However, the expert noted that even with such a reduction, the rate will remain prohibitive for the real sector. In his opinion, the economy will begin to show steady growth only with a reduction in the rate to 12-13%, while the current levels of 15.5-16.5% do not have a significant impact on investment processes.

Earlier, Ostapkovich told Izvestia that the dollar exchange rate would return to around 90 rubles in November and December, which would be in line with the interests of the federal budget and exporters. According to him, the current depreciation of the US currency is temporary and will soon be replaced by a gradual strengthening.

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