The economist assessed the consequences of Russia's record low external debt

Russia's external debt has decreased to about 14% of gross domestic product (GDP), making the country less vulnerable to external economic shocks and strengthening financial stability. Evgeny Shatov, a partner at Capital Lab, told Izvestia on November 17.

"High external debt traditionally carries several key risks. First of all, it is vulnerable to currency fluctuations and rising global interest rates: servicing debts in foreign currency is becoming more expensive, and currency shocks can destabilize the balance of companies and the budget. The second risk is dependence on external funding and the trust of foreign investors: if the geopolitical or market conditions worsen, access to borrowing may be blocked, which has repeatedly caused balance of payments crises in the past," the expert said.

He noted that Russia, having gone through sanctions restrictions and loss of access to Western capital markets, actually minimized these risks. Low debt means low vulnerability to external shocks and sovereign financial independence.

In addition, Shatov added that the reduction of external debt to the current level indicates not only the financial stability of the country, but also a strategic change in its macroeconomic model in recent years. According to him, such a low level of debt burden by international standards demonstrates the high ability of the state and the corporate sector to fulfill their obligations without attracting significant external sources of financing.

"No significant growth in external debt is expected in the coming years. Given the current restrictions on transactions with Western capital markets, Russian companies and banks will continue to refinance obligations mainly from domestic sources and settlements in "friendly" currencies. Even with the partial restoration of foreign economic relations, it is more likely to be a smooth increase in corporate borrowing for investment projects, rather than large—scale external financing," the economist said, noting that the indicator will remain in the range of 13-16% of GDP for two to three years.

He also said that reducing external debt has a positive impact on the domestic economy, as it reduces pressure on the foreign exchange market, strengthens the ruble and increases the stability of the financial system. According to him, the released resources of companies and banks are directed to internal projects and the development of the capital market.

On the same day, RIA Novosti, citing calculations based on data from the Central Bank of Russia and Rosstat, reported that the ratio of Russia's external debt to GDP dropped to 14% in the third quarter of 2025. A lower indicator was recorded only once — at the end of 2024, when it reached a historic low of 13.3%.

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