VTB has given a forecast on the rate of inflation in the Russian Federation

Inflation at the end of this year will be slightly above 7%, and by the end of 2026 we can expect 5.5%. This forecast was given by Vitaly Sergeychuk, a member of the VTB Management Board, speaking at the VTB investment forum "RUSSIA IS CALLING! Krasnodar".

Sergeychuk called the high-stakes period completely modeled by internal factors. Previously, this was largely influenced by lower energy prices, exchange rate changes, and high inflation, the expert noted. "Now, the incentive that has swung the rate higher is the growth of budget expenditures, the growth of loan portfolios associated with the restructuring of the economy, with the growth of companies' investments in that very restructuring, reorientation to the east," said a member of the VTB board.

He called next year's budget "super conservative," suggesting that this would allow the Central Bank to "lower the rate more vigorously." "The tax changes last year and the VAT increase next year will allow us to get a more structurally balanced budget, and this will have much less impact on the money supply and on the internal causes of rising inflation that were in previous years," Sergeychuk believes.

He also noted that after the rapid growth of 2023-2024, the economy is slowing down. "You need to understand that economics is not a hundred—meter race, but a marathon, and here it is important to measure your capabilities and resources over a long distance," said a VTB representative. According to him, the Russian economy is gradually returning to balanced growth.

Thus, according to VTB estimates, GDP growth in the third quarter was already zero (compared to the previous quarter, excluding seasonality). According to the results of the nine months, industries related to the military-industrial complex, retail, and industries aimed at domestic demand are growing, Sergeychuk noted. At the same time, there is a decline in extractive, export-oriented industries and the related transportation industry.

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