The analyst cited the reasons for the 2.7% increase in real wages in 2026. %

The labor market is overheated today, and unemployment is at a historic low of 2.3%. Companies are facing a staff shortage of about 1.5 million people, which is why they are forced to raise salaries not out of an effort to increase employee incomes, but to keep them. Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets, told Izvestia on November 12.

"The difference between nominal and real wage growth is a direct consequence of inflation, which eats up purchasing power. If nominal incomes grow by 8.4%, and prices, according to forecasts of the October survey of the Bank of Russia, will add 5.1%, then the real increase will be exactly these 2.7%. At first glance, the numbers look modest, but everything becomes clear if you take into account the context," the analyst said.

He drew attention to the fact that the key challenge for the Russian economy remains inflation, which reached about 8% in October–November 2025, which is almost twice the target. According to him, the Bank of Russia adheres to a tight monetary policy in order to contain consumer demand and return inflation to the established norm. The slowdown in real incomes of the population is the expected result: a decrease in purchasing activity leads to a decrease in demand and, as a result, a decrease in price pressure.

"This dynamic leads to more informed purchase decisions. In the first quarter of 2025, we have already seen an increase in the propensity to save - people prefer to save money for high—interest deposits rather than spend on large purchases. This is a normal reaction to high rates," Rastorguev said.

As for business, the analyst added, the current situation serves as a signal for increased competition for consumers, as the period of light sales is ending. At the same time, he stressed that with effective implementation of the Bank of Russia's policy, inflation could fall to 4-5% by the end of 2026, which would create the prerequisites for stable growth in real incomes in subsequent years.

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On the same day, it was reported that next year the nominal salary will increase by 8.4%, while the real (that is, adjusted for inflation) — by only 2.7%. This follows from the results of the October macroeconomic survey of the Central Bank (Izvestia studied it). For the calculation, the regulator used the answers of 26 economists.

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