The economist explained the increase in refusals of banks on applications for retail loans

The situation with loan refusals in Russia has reached a critical point — in October 2025, the rejection rate for all applications for retail loans was 81.9%, which was a record over the past year. In an interview with Izvestia, Khoja Kava, senior lecturer at the Department of Economic Theory at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, pointed out this, noting that out of every ten people who apply for a loan, eight are refused.

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"The reasons for such a massive wave of refusals lie in the strict regulatory restrictions imposed by the Central Bank. The Central Bank has set macroprudential limits on the issuance of loans to borrowers with a high debt burden," the source recalls.

According to these requirements, for consumer loans, the share of loans issued to people with a debt burden of 50 to 80% is limited to 15% of the quarterly volume. And for those with more than 80% of this figure, banks can provide only 3% of loans. In fact, this means that if a person spends more than half of their income on paying off all their loans, the chances of getting a new loan are minimal, the expert emphasizes.

"Under such severe restrictions, banks are in no hurry to increase their risk appetite — it is easier for them to refuse a dubious borrower than to violate regulatory limits," he explains.

A set of conditions is needed to revive lending. First of all, a significant reduction in the key rate is required, the economist is convinced. The key condition is also the stabilization of inflation. It is also necessary to increase the real incomes of the population in order to reduce the debt burden of existing borrowers.

"With the improvement of the macroeconomic situation and the reduction of systemic risks, the Central Bank may revise the restrictions on the debt burden, increasing the allowable share of loans for borrowers with an increased index. Structural changes in the economy are also important — it is necessary to switch from credit to investment and production growth," sums up Khoja Kava.

Read more about why banks refuse loans to Russians in the Izvestia article.

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