Let's go for a ride, pretty woman: sales of new cars increased by a third

Sales of new passenger cars in October set a new record. The growth was facilitated by the decision to change the rules for calculating the recycling fee, as well as a gradual decrease in discounts on cars, as well as a decrease in the profitability of bank deposits. High demand for cars will remain until the end of the year, and next year the market expects a noticeable transformation, experts say. The details are in the Izvestia article.

A new record

In October, 165,702 new passenger cars were sold in Russia. Such data is provided by the analytical agency Autostat, based on the number of issued EPTS. This is 35.6% more than in the previous month, and 3.2% less than in October last year. Thus, since the beginning of this year, sales of new cars have set a new record, falling slightly short of last year's figures, which were also recorded in mid-autumn. In just ten months, 1.06 million new cars were sold in Russia, which is 19.9% worse than in the same period last year.

Lada still holds the lead: 33,251 cars of this brand were sold last month. At the same time, the share of the domestic automaker in the market decreased from 26.18% to 20.07% compared to last October. Haval is in second place (26,125), Geely has the bronze medal (14,238). The Belarusian brand Belgee (10,780) overcame the mark of 10,000 cars sold, rising to the fourth position. The fifth place was unexpectedly taken by the domestic brand Tenet (8632), which appeared on the market only in August. But Chery, which had been in the top three for a long time, dropped to sixth position at the end of last month with a score of 6566 cars. Changan (6369), Russian Solaris (5809), Toyota (4165 cars delivered through alternative channels) and Omoda (3427) complete the rating.

More than half of the companies in the top 10 show negative sales dynamics in ten months. Omoda (-41.3%) and Geely (-41%) sank the most noticeably. Changan (-39.3%), Chery (-29.2%), Lada (-25%) and Haval (-15.2%) are also in the red. Sales increased at Solaris (+128.1%), Belgee (+74.9%) and Toyota (+25.2%).

Lada Granta retained the lead in the "individual competition" with a circulation of 15,183 units. The Haval Jolion crossover retained the title of the most popular foreign car (although produced in Russia) with a score of 9229 cars. Lada Vesta ranks third with 7,453 units. Geely Monjaro (6435) and Haval M6 (6203) rounded out the top five. The top ten most popular models are the Belarusian crossovers Belgee X70 (5399, sixth place) and X50 (4210, eighth position). There are two Tenet models on the seventh and tenth lines, the T4 (4296) and T7 (3638) crossovers, respectively. Lada Niva Legend took the ninth place with a score of 3729 cars.

Reversal trend and panic

The growth of the market became possible due to pent-up demand and upcoming changes in the calculation of scrap collection, said Sergey Tselikov, General Director of the analytical agency Autostat.

— There was a dip in the market in January and July. This "spring" in the form of pent-up demand has been shrinking for six months and has now "fired". The changes in the methodology for calculating the recycling fee, which came into force on December 1, became a kind of "trigger". This gave the market a powerful boost," he said during the online conference "Autostat. RAM".

Sales growth was also facilitated by a reduction in the key interest rate, which, on the one hand, made car loans a little more affordable, and on the other, deposits on deposits became less profitable, said Sergey Tselikov.

According to him, the market situation has turned in the opposite direction, due to the continued trends that were observed at the beginning of the year. Previously, buyers acted on the principle of "why take now if tomorrow it will be cheaper," but now they are guided by the considerations of "you need to buy today, tomorrow it will be more expensive," the expert noted. The general director of Autostat calls the redistribution of market shares towards new brands a recent trend.

— For Lada, a share of 20% is very small, before it was kept at 30%. Haval is closely approaching it with 16% of the market, Geely together with Belgee now occupy a total of 15%. Chery has lagged far behind with Tenet, which together account for only 9% of the market. At the same time, alternative imports now account for about 12%: compared to the first half of the year, this figure has almost doubled," said Sergey Tselikov.

In October, the number of car loans issued increased significantly, said Dmitry Yarygin, Deputy head of the analytics Department at Autostat. Thus, compared to September, the number of loans increased by 31%, and in monetary terms — by 45%. This also contributed to a significant increase in sales of new cars, he stressed.

Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine, calls the panic among customers caused by changes in the recycling calculation methodology the main driver of the October sales growth. At the same time, such panic is often simply groundless, he notes.

— People just don't understand that the main price increase will be for private imports, and not for those cars that are sold in car dealerships, although prices for them will eventually rise too. The general message that everything will be more expensive in 2026, of course, attracts people to car dealerships," Maxim Kadakov told Izvestia.

In his opinion, the result of November will be about the same as in October. As for the last month of the year, the expert does not undertake to predict its result.

— I think that dealers will make full use of the current mood, saying that starting in January it will be more expensive, and in the end, it may turn out that December will be quite good. But now it's very difficult to predict what it will be like," said the editor—in-chief of Za Rulem.

Last month, the market showed positive dynamics, above the forecasts of most analysts, said Ilya Petrov, Director of Retail Sales at Avilon AG. He also believes that the sales growth is primarily caused by expectations of higher car prices after the New Year holidays.

— In November, the market is likely to be a little quieter than in October, primarily due to the limited availability of individual modifications. In December, another surge in sales is expected, and most likely, the final one this year, thanks to those who want to buy a car before the new pricing rules come into force, Ilya Petrov believes.

The key trend in October was the active redistribution of shares in favor of new players, such as the Belarusian Belgee and the domestic Tenet, said Nikita Kolesnikov, a representative of the Japanese export company HSS in the Russian Federation. This indicates the successful development of import substitution and localization programs, he emphasizes.

— As for the dynamics until the end of the year, new factors will come into force here, which will make the picture heterogeneous. The postponement of the new procedure for calculating the recycling fee to December 1 has created a unique window of opportunity for November. We expect November sales, especially in the high-performance car segment, to show some kind of surge as buyers and dealers seek to make purchases at the old, more lenient rates. However, in December, we should expect a sharp cooling in the segment of cars with an engine more powerful than 160 hp," Nikita Kolesnikov believes.

Market Transformation

According to Sergey Tselikov, the market is expected to make serious progress in 2026. New proxy brands (Belgee, Tenet, Knewstar) will continue to significantly increase their presence and eventually overtake the "parent" ones in sales. The share of alternative imports will decrease to 6-7%, the expert believes.

Earlier, Autostat predicted sales of new cars in 2026. Thus, according to the baseline scenario, sales of new passenger cars are expected to grow to 1.37 million units. The optimistic scenario assumes a 15% increase (up to 1.5 million cars sold), while the pessimistic scenario assumes a 5% decrease in the market to 1.23 million cars.

In the long term, the new recycling rules will become not just an adjustment, but a systemic factor determining the future of the entire market, Nikita Kolesnikov believes.

— The state has clearly outlined the vector of development, stimulating the transition to a model protected from mass imports of powerful foreign cars. This will contribute to the accelerated localization and strengthening of the positions of domestic manufacturers, as well as those foreign brands that are ready to adapt their model ranges to the new realities," he told Izvestia.

According to the expert, the market is actively moving towards a model in which affordable small and medium-capacity cars, mostly localized, will make up the mass segment. As for powerful cars, they will finally move into the premium category, Nikita Kolesnikov believes.