Cheap and angry: the Russian grain harvest was a success
The grain harvest in Russia this year will be good, despite significant difficulties, both weather and market conditions. Although records should not be expected, it is almost certain that the final result in net weight will exceed 130 million tons, which fits into the trajectory of good performance in the last few years. The information about what figures are expected following the results of the harvesting campaign, what is the quality of grain and what will happen to exports is in the Izvestia article.
Growth by 8%
The harvesting campaign is nearing completion. According to the calculations of the Ministry of Agriculture, Russia has harvested more than 135 million tons of grain in bunker weight — almost 9 million tons more than a year earlier. Growth is also visible in certain categories: 93.5 million tons of wheat were harvested, which is 7.8% higher than a year ago, and 20.5 million tons of barley (plus 15.4%). Harvesting of corn, rice and buckwheat is also in the final stages.
In general, there is not much left to collect. Grains and legumes were harvested on an area of about 42.5 million hectares, or 93% of the crops. The average yield increased by almost 15% compared to the same period last year, including 14% for wheat and 22% for barley.
If we look at individual regions, then, as usual, the regions and territories of the Southern Federal District were among the leaders. 11.3 million tons of grain were harvested in the Krasnodar Territory, and more than 8.5 million tons in the Rostov region. At the same time, the highest yields were demonstrated in some regions of the Central Federal District. So, in the Lipetsk region, the yield was 50 c/ha, and in the Kursk region — 52 c/ha. Interestingly, a similar indicator was demonstrated in the small, but traditionally very productive Kaliningrad region — a little less than "fifty kopecks".
It is worth noting that the situation for the future is not the best. The area of grain crops for the 2025 harvest decreased by 5%, and in 2026 there may be an additional reduction, since the profitability of wheat cultivation this agricultural year will remain low. Compared to last year, the quality of the harvest is likely to deteriorate, as a lot of sprouted grain will result due to the influence of precipitation.
On a consistently high plateau
In general, recent years show that Russia has established itself as one of the global leaders. Since 2014, yields have not fallen below 100 million tons, since 2016 - below 110 million tons, since 2021 — below 120 million tons. At the same time, yields are also growing, which have stabilized above 25 quintals per hectare, despite the fact that this result was achieved for the first time back in 2014.
As for exports, Russian wheat has held the first place in the world over the past few years. The situation is unlikely to change in the new export season. The main consumers of Russian grain are the countries of the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia. There are certain hopes for the full opening of the Chinese market for Russian grain (while exports to China are coming from several Siberian regions).
This year, in addition to the weather conditions, producers are also affected by other circumstances. The fighting has reduced the area of crops and harvests in the border regions, mainly important grain producers. Extremely high rates, both in nominal and real terms, complicate the availability of financing. At the same time, prices on the world market are now at about the level of 2020-2021, if we count in dollars. However, since then, the US currency has lost a lot of weight — by almost 20%, so real grain prices have since decreased, and significantly. The same cannot be said about fuel, machinery, components, etc.
Wheat under 90 million tons
Analysts interviewed by Izvestia are generally quite optimistic about the preliminary results of the year. Daria Snitko, Vice President and Head of Gazprombank's Analytical Department, noted that in 2025, the gross grain harvest in net weight is expected to be above 133 million tons, of which more than 88 million tons will be wheat, which is much more optimistic than the summer forecasts.
— Such results were facilitated by the weather in the center of the European part of the country, as well as the growth in the area structure of niche crops (legumes). We believe that not only the weather had a negative impact on the yield of corn, oilseeds, and especially sunflower, but also a decrease in the use of seeds from the world's leading suppliers," the expert points out.
Elena Zhiryaeva, a professor at the Department of Economics at the Presidential Academy in St. Petersburg, predicts a figure of 135 million tons in net weight for the entire season. According to her, grain harvesting was complicated by weather conditions in the Siberian regions, and the frequency of storms on the Black Sea was a seasonal factor constraining exports in October. The global wheat market is under pressure from record supply.
— The development of agricultural insurance with state support remains a positive factor — such programs are already in operation in 69 regions — and a high proportion of preferential loans: over half of all loans in agriculture are issued with state support. Comfortable export prices in October, in particular due to the rise in oil prices and the intensification of negotiations between the United States and China on the supply of agricultural products, made it possible to accelerate exports, the Izvestia interlocutor states.
Durum as an escape from the conjuncture
In a situation where prices remain relatively low, Russian manufacturers are thinking about alternatives — high-value-added products that are less affected by fluctuations in global markets. Durum wheat is one of the crops whose potential is underestimated in the country. It should be noted that this is not just a high-quality grain, but a separate agricultural crop.
According to Zhiryaeva, Russia has historically been a leader in grain exports and a supplier of high-quality durum wheat to Europe.
— After the revolution of 1917, the export of durum stopped, but in recent years there has been an increase in interest in this culture. Over the past five years, the area under durum wheat in Russia has doubled. The country currently produces about 4% of the world's durum. The main part, about 55%— is concentrated in the Orenburg and Chelyabinsk regions, on the border with Kazakhstan. Last year, the Chelyabinsk region had the highest durum wheat harvest in the country — 571 thousand tons, which is about 20% of the Russian volume. The other leading regions are Saratov, Samara, and Volgograd regions. In 2025, durum wheat was sown for the first time in the Sverdlovsk region (in the Rejevsky district), and 3.1 thousand hectares were allocated for it in the Lipetsk region. Rosstat does not publish separate statistics on durum, but according to other sources, the durum wheat harvest in 2024 amounted to 2.4 million tons— three times more than a year earlier. The forecast for the current year is 1.8–1.9 million tons, the expert concluded.
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