Royal Knockout: what are the chances of Russians at the World Chess Cup

This week, the World Chess Cup starts in India, which will last until the end of November. In the knockout system competition, grandmasters are playing for not only $2 million, but also three places for the 2026 candidates tournament. The current world champion Gukesh Dommaraju will also participate in the home tournament, plus six more players from the top 10 of the FIDE rating (Erigaisi, Pragnanandha, Giri, So, Kaymer, Wei Yi). Yan Nepomnyashchy received the highest seeding among Russians — 12th. In addition to the two-time winner of the candidates tournaments, our country will also be represented in Goa by nine more grandmasters, including the current rapid world champion Volodar Murzin and the new Russian champion Arseniy Nesterov.

The first round and acclimatization

206 players from more than 80 countries will take part in the World Cup. The tournament traditionally follows the knockout system, which is a playoff variant based on the specifics of chess: in each round, participants play a mini-match with a guaranteed draw. In the first two days, the grandmasters play two classic games. In case of a tie, a tie-break is held on the third day.

In total, the winner must win seven or eight mini-matches (depending on the seeding number). This format implies a lot of unexpected results. Favorites often suffer defeats in the early stages, similar to Grand Slam tournaments in tennis. It's worth the fact that the 16th world champion Magnus Karslen, who has held the first place in the FIDE ranking for more than 17 years, was able to win the World Cup only on his fifth attempt. Two years ago in Baku, the famous Norwegian was close to being eliminated in the 1/16 finals by Vincent Kaymer, but he managed to win the game to order and win in a quick tiebreak. Magnus was stronger than Rameshbabu Pragnanandha in the final. In the bronze medal match, Fabiano Caruana beat Nijat Abasov, who had only the 69th seed. It should be noted that other low-seeded players also reached the 1/8 finals in Azerbaijan: Ferenc Berkesh (82), Saleh Salem (53), Nils Grandelius (39) and Alexey Sarana (38).

This time, too, you should expect a lot of sensations, says European champion, two-time champion of Russia Vladislav Artemyev.

"That's what I personally like about the knockout,— Artemyev said in a conversation with Izvestia. — I would vote for this format to be used as often as possible. It's more interesting than the Swiss and even more so than the round-robin tournaments. Round-robin games often turn out to be boring, as the players don't have much motivation, except for two or three people. A knockout spurs you to fight from the very beginning, because one defeat can lead to relegation. It's very spectacular, especially from the point of view of chess fans.

"The opponent's level doesn't matter"

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Artemyev will face Heskiel Ndahangwapo from Namibia in the first round. Ivan Zemlyansky (who will play Levan Pantsulaya from Georgia), Alexey Grebnev (Daniel Kizon from the Philippines), Sergey Lobanov (Katsper Perun from Poland), and Evgeny Naer (Fi Antenaina Rakotomaharo from Madagascar) will also start their performances in India from the opening round. Saparmurat Atabaev will face the new Russian champion Arseniy Nesterov.

"A Turkmen grandmaster, quite a good one," Nesterov emphasized. — According to the rating, I'm the favorite, but I just won't be. Now everyone knows how to play. If I manage to pass it, then Pentala Harikrishna is waiting for me next. Of the seeded ones, this is a pretty good draw. Then there will be very difficult opponents in the future, but you can play with all of them. I don't feel any pressure, but the main thing is to complete the first lap, roll in, and acclimatize in India.

The first 50 participants in the ranking, including Yan Nepomnyashchy, Daniil Dubov, Andrey Esipenko and Volodar Murzin, begin the fight from the second round.

The last carriage

So far, only Fabiano Caruana (winner of the overall FIDE Circuit 2024), Anish Giri (champion of the Big Swiss 2025) and Matthias Blubaum (who finished after Giri in Samarkand) have qualified for the 2026 candidates tournament. Three more tickets (as well as two years ago) will be awarded at the 2025 World Cup. Thanks to this, the match for the third place acquires a special status.

Among Russians, Peter Svider (Khanty-Mansiysk-2011), Vladimir Kramnik (Tromso-2013) and Sergey Karjakin (Baku-2015) won the World Cup. Kramnik ended his career, Karjakin has refused to play under a neutral flag in recent years and has focused on political activities, Peter Svidler on coaching.

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Anna won the Superfinal of the Russian Chess Championship, and Arseny Nesterov won the open tournament for the first time.

Therefore, the main hopes are once again connected with Jan Nepomnyashchy. The current world blitz champion has qualified for the last three candidates tournaments (he won it twice and took third place in Toronto 2024). In India, Jan will have one last opportunity to continue this wonderful series. The game of the leader of Russian chess did not go well at the "Big Swiss 2025", it is almost impossible to catch up with the leaders in the FIDE Circuit 2025 standings, and Hikaru Nakamura almost guaranteed himself a place in the rating.

"The World Cup in India confuses me a bit,— Nepomnyashchy noted in an interview with Izvestia. — I played in Calcutta once before, I didn't like it. Problems with food? Generally. Climate, environment. It is clear that there is a huge chess boom. The fans are going wild. It is probably dangerous for leading Indian chess players to go outside. They'll tear it up for souvenirs. It is known that cricket is the number one sport in India, but chess is gradually being selected. So it's better not to go outside once again. I don't hide the fact that I have an idea to win the World Championship in each of the categories: classic, Fischer chess, rapid and blitz. It turns out that I have closed only one of the four targets. I will continue to work on the rest.

Nepomnyashchy has plenty of competitors. At the 2024 World Cup, he was "seeded" at number four (he reached the furthest of all Russians, losing in the 1/8 finals to Vidit in a tie-break), and is now at 12th. Arjun Erigaisi, Pragnanandha, Giri, Wesley So, Keimer, Wei Yi, Gukesh, Nodirbek Abdusattorov, Shakhriyar Mammadyarov, Hans Niemann and Maxime Vachier-Lagrave are ranked higher.

World Cup game days: November 1-9 (1-3 rounds), November 11-19 (4-6 rounds), November 21-26 (7-8 rounds). The tours start at 12:30 Moscow time.