Maina team: oil prices are preparing for a new decline

The World Bank predicts lower energy prices in 2026. There is a growing oversupply of oil on the global market, and even the Chinese factor, which has stabilized demand until recently, is already close to exhaustion. Russian experts assess the prospects of the oil market cautiously: they believe that a period of moderate but steady decline in quotations is ahead. The details are in the Izvestia article.

Supply is growing, the market is going into surplus

The main pressure on the oil price will be exerted by an increase in supply from OPEC+ countries associated with the gradual abandonment of production restrictions, said Vasily Tanurkov, senior director of the ACRA corporate ratings group.

— In fact, as a result of the change in OPEC+ strategy from April to September 2025, production quotas have already increased by 2.5 million barrels per day, which led to a surplus in the market. In part, the fall in prices is being held back by the replenishment of reserves from China, which was made possible by the introduction of new storage facilities. Thus, it is expected that the volume of 11 new oil storage facilities commissioned in 2025 and 2026 will amount to 169 million barrels," he stressed.

According to the expert, when the storage tanks in China are filled, "this will become an additional driver of the decline in oil prices in 2026." In addition, additional non-OPEC+ oil continues to enter the market: according to the latest forecast of the cartel, the production growth of such countries in 2026 will amount to 630 thousand barrels per day.

A similar situation is observed in the LNG market: the already planned commissioning of record gas liquefaction capacities in the United States and Qatar in 2026-2027 may lead to an oversupply and an additional reduction in energy prices in general.

World Bank forecasts

The World Bank's forecast for lower oil prices is directly related to expectations of a slowdown in global GDP growth, says Finam analyst Alexander Potavin.

— Moderate global economic growth of about 2.7% is projected in 2026. This means a slight slowdown compared to 2024-2025. The World Bank had previously warned of subdued growth due to political uncertainty and trade tensions. That is why commodity prices, including oil, are likely to decline," said Alexander Potavin.

The expert stressed that OPEC+ producing countries are gradually lifting production restrictions, increasing supply volumes, and independent producers are showing record production levels.

The increase in supply, according to him, naturally leads to the accumulation of stocks, creating pressure on prices. Alexander Potavin also drew attention to the impact of technology: "The development of AI and high technologies that increase the efficiency of energy production and consumption can further reduce the demand for oil."

At the same time, he stressed that "the dynamics of oil prices will not be unambiguous," as the risks of geopolitical conflicts and sanctions may briefly cause an increase in quotations. The growth in oil demand in developing countries such as China and India can partially offset the decline in consumption in other regions.

According to the analyst, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the average price of Brent may be in the range of $ 66 per barrel, and in early 2026 — about $ 60. "Forecasts of leading investment banks for 2026 indicate a downward trend in the average price of Brent up to $ 52 per barrel," he added.

Such a decrease, the expert notes, will lead to a reduction in oil and gas budget revenues.

The Russian factor

Russian companies are guided by the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of Urals crude oil prices for 2026 — $61 per barrel, recalls Tamara Safonova, associate professor at the Institute of Economics, Mathematics and Information Technology of the Presidential Academy. According to her, the forecasts of the World Bank and other international structures take into account "the observed competition for the release of additional production volumes to the world market."

— However, such a race leads to the fact that mining companies that provide a full investment and high-tech cycle receive less revenue, since price indices are formed by speculators reacting to information occasions. Currently, oil is an undervalued commodity. A strategic energy source cannot be sold at prices that do not cover the costs of enterprises," Tamara Safonova emphasized.

She noted that "the financial and economic statements of Russian oil and gas companies for the first half of 2025 showed negative net profit flows," and suggested considering the possibility of "approving at the state level the maximum discount level for all marker grades of Russian oil." This, in her opinion, "may reduce the volume of supplies, cause a shortage of oil on the world market and trigger price increases, which will lead to an increase in revenue and budget revenues."

Focus on recycling and domestic demand

In the context of lower oil prices, Russia should strengthen its efforts to develop deep refining and domestic demand for energy resources, says Olga Orlova, head of the Industry department at the Institute of Oil and Gas Technologies. According to her, "if Brent quotes really fall to $55-60 per barrel in 2026, then the main task will be to compensate for export losses by stimulating petrochemicals, gas processing and the production of petroleum products with high added value."

Olga Orlova emphasizes that domestic processing can become a "safety net" of the economy. The analyst argues that the growth in exports of petrochemicals and finished products is able to mitigate budget risks even with lower global prices for raw materials. She also draws attention to the need to "reconfigure investment programs and tax incentives to meet new realities," including the development of technological equipment in the country and the introduction of energy-efficient solutions in industry.

— It is strategically important not only to sell raw materials, but also to form new value chains within the country. This will strengthen the sustainability of the Russian economy in the long term," the expert concluded.