Trump announced the start of US nuclear weapons tests. What does this mean?

US President Donald Trump has announced that the country intends to start testing nuclear weapons "on a par" with Russia and China. The message appeared after the news about the Russian tests of the Burevestnik cruise missile and the Poseidon underwater drone. What the statement of the American leader means and what the consequences may be is in the Izvestia article.

Why did Trump decide to test nuclear weapons

• Trump's statement was probably a reaction to Russia's announcement about the test launch of the Poseidon unmanned underwater vehicle at a nuclear power plant. A few days earlier, it was reported that the decisive tests of the Burevestnik cruise missile with a nuclear power plant had been completed. At the same time, none of this was a nuclear weapons test. In fact, no country except North Korea has tested nuclear weapons since 1996.

• Trump called for nuclear tests three months before the expiration of the START III Nuclear Arms Control Treaty, which was signed by Russia and the United States in 2010 and does not envisage a further extension. Tests of new weapons delivery systems (as in the case of Poseidon) are not subject to the limitations of the treaty. At the same time, during the contacts between the United States and Russia, the topic of nuclear deterrence was repeatedly raised, but the details have not yet been announced.

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• Technically, the United States, if it starts nuclear tests, will not violate the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), which was signed by the United States, Russia and China in 1996. According to the treaty, the countries had to abandon "any nuclear weapon test explosions or any other nuclear explosions." But Washington never ratified the treaty, and Russia withdrew its ratification in 2023 due to the US position. Nevertheless, the United States has not yet withdrawn its signature to the treaty, which it will have to do if it wants to actually test nuclear weapons.

• The United States has not conducted nuclear tests for more than 30 years. In 1992, the U.S. Congress voted for a moratorium on nuclear weapons testing and the final cessation of all underground testing by 1997. Previously, the law allowed for up to six trials per year. The decision of the Congress was explained by the collapse of the Soviet Union, which the United States considered the main threat, and the desire to save money for the re-election of then-President George W. Bush.

• The Pentagon has been tasked with conducting nuclear tests promptly, although they are usually conducted by the Department of Energy, which develops and manufactures nuclear weapons for the United States. The most famous nuclear test site in the United States is the Nevada test site, near Las Vegas.

What prevents you from conducting tests quickly

• It will take at least three years for the United States to resume controlled underground nuclear testing at its former Nevada test site. Currently, no tests are conducted there, but the test site itself is used for defense programs, industrial research and development. There is also a National Environmental Research Park on its territory. In addition to preparing the territory for testing, specialists will be required, the vast majority of whom have been sent on unpaid leave.

• Testing nuclear weapons will require a lot of time and money. It will take about six months to prepare the tests, and billions of dollars are needed to modernize the American "nuclear triad." The most likely weapon for field testing is the AGM - 181 LRSO air-launched cruise missile with a nuclear warhead, which has been developed by Raytheon Technologies since 2017. At the same time, American nuclear engineers have been insisting for years on stopping field testing, since now a nuclear explosion can be simulated on a computer.

• Experts agree that Trump mistook the testing of Russian weapons for testing nuclear weapons and will now try to demonstrate to the world the power of American weapons. But it is unlikely that US nuclear weapons test launches will be possible in the near future. Moreover, most analysts doubt that the US president's statement will be followed by any action at all due to the fact that contacts between Washington and Moscow remain, and any misunderstanding can be quickly resolved.

During the preparation of the Izvestia material, we talked and took into account the opinions of:

• American political scientist Malek Dudakov;
• Dmitry Stefanovich, Researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, co-founder of the Watfor project;
• Izvestia columnist Andrey Kuzmak.