The unlucky Dutchman: why the right lost the leadership in the Dutch elections

Parliamentary elections were held in the Netherlands on October 29. According to exit polls, Democrats 66 (D66), which is close to centrist views, wins 27 seats, while Geert Wilders' far—right Freedom Party (PVV), the initial favorite of the campaign, is in second place with 25 seats. Now the political forces are facing new coalition negotiations. The expert community believes that Wilders is unlikely to be allowed into the government this time, as after the 2023 elections, when he won by a significant margin. However, the PVV's position in favor of limiting migration and criticizing military aid to Ukraine is still strong. And the Netherlands is far from the only EU country in which opponents are forced to reckon with politicians who are critical of pumping Kiev with weapons.

Election results in the Netherlands

Parliamentary elections were held in the Netherlands on October 29. Following the results of the voting, 150 deputies will be elected to the lower board for a term of 4 years. After the polls closed in the Netherlands, the first exit polls began to appear.

According to Ipsos, Geert Wilders' right-wing Freedom Party (PVV) is in second place, losing minimally to the centrist Democrats from D66 who unexpectedly took the lead. As a result, the D66 can gain 27 seats in parliament, while the PVV can gain only 25 (compared to 37 in the elections two years earlier). Anyway, such results give reason to say that the popularity of the right-wing forces in the Netherlands remains very high.

The early elections to the Dutch parliament were the result of the political crisis of recent months. In June, the leader of the Freedom Party, Geert Wilders, announced the withdrawal of his colleagues from the coalition government, which, in addition to the right forces, included leftists and centrists. He decided to take such a step after the Cabinet of Ministers did not support his plan to tighten migration policy. He meant closing borders to all asylum seekers, suspending family reunification and returning refugees to Syria.

Wilders, whose party won the parliamentary elections in 2023, is best known for his anti-immigration views. He demanded an end to the admission of Muslims to the country, and a ban on the construction of new mosques and religious schools. Finally, being a eurosceptic, he opposed the adoption of the European constitution by the Netherlands and called for refraining from military supplies to Ukraine. Just in August, Wilders sharply criticized the decision of the Dutch authorities to finance the supply of American weapons to Ukraine in the amount of 500 million euros.

In general, the topics that most concern the Dutch today have not changed since 2023. First of all, this is the problem of migration, which has split Dutch society: one part adheres to the radical measures proposed by Wilders, while the other remains tolerant, Alexander Konkov, associate professor of political Analysis at the Faculty of Public Administration at Lomonosov Moscow State University, told Izvestia.

— In Holland, in general, they tend to a certain radicalism. Of course, there is a public demand for tougher measures. On the other hand, this society itself is quite diverse, it also has a demand for balance and tolerance, so different points of view collide here," the expert said.

The heterogeneity of society is explained by the fact that recently a small country has accepted a considerable number of migrants, whose vote also affects the election results. Similarly, in recent years, the Dutch have been reluctant to pay out of their own pockets for military supplies to Ukraine, which the Freedom Party is playing on.

— In Holland, people are not used to discussing global geopolitical issues. They are less keen on this because the country is relatively small. Therefore, if you put the question squarely, are you ready to pay for the war in Ukraine, then, of course, no one is ready to pay for it," says Konkov.

Based on such sentiments, Wilders' party was able to win in 2023, but was unable to constructively agree on a political course with other forces in the coalition government. Because of this, Wilders was unable to fulfill his election promises, and his party lost several positions in the rating. This allowed his main rivals, the Green Left, led by Frans Timmermans, to declare that the course of the right forces had failed.

However, it seems that the situation when the formed coalition government will be torn apart due to constant disagreements may happen again, experts say. At the moment, Wilders does not have reliable political partners with whom he could form a cabinet, political analyst Ivan Mezyuho told Izvestia.

— It is likely that Wilders will turn out to be a loner in the leftist government. Therefore, he will be forced to make concessions and compromises, as he did earlier when, together with European officials, he voted for military assistance to Ukraine, the expert believes.

Thus, if the opposing forces fail to come to an agreement with each other, the Netherlands risks becoming mired in a new constitutional crisis in the coming years.

Who in Europe opposes an increase in military aid to Kiev

The Netherlands cannot be considered the only country where the popularity of forces opposing increased military aid to Kiev has been growing recently. Thus, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), with slogans of combating illegal migration and ending military aid to Ukraine, became the leader among all parties in the country in August 2025: its rating rose to 26%.

The other day, the AFD again criticized the German government's policy towards Ukraine, calling Kiev's support a "sell-out of Germany's interests."

"If the German government had directed at least 50% of the efforts that are concentrated on Ukraine and Zelensky to their country, we would have had a few less problems. Instead, the sale of German interests continues," the AFG said in a statement on the social network X.

In France, the "National Association" has achieved serious support. Its leader, Marine Le Pen, was predicted to win the presidential election in 2027. However, the criminal case against her and four years of imprisonment deprived her of this opportunity. On this wave of popularity, the prime ministers of Hungary and Slovakia, Viktor Orban and Robert Fico, are already in power today.

As already mentioned, first of all, the reason is the migration problem. The migration crisis that began in 2014-2015 has become one of the most painful problems in the region today. As a result of the events of the "Arab Spring" and the wars in Syria and Libya, EU countries were overwhelmed by millions of migrants. The famous phrase "We will cope", which was uttered by the then German Chancellor Angela Merkel, opened the gates of European civilization in front of them.

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The second problem was spending on military aid to Ukraine. The policy of "military Keynesianism", which consists in serious spending on defense production, not only alienated voters, but also led to economic problems in the European Union, says political analyst Ivan Mezyuho.

— This course has absolutely not been thought out, it has not been strategically verified, and this will lead to deep economic problems later. The alliance of European states, supporting Ukraine by investing a lot of money in its defense industry, may eventually reach a dead end," the expert explains.

At the same time, not everyone who opposes military supplies to Ukraine finds themselves on the right flank of the political coordinates. For example, Catherine Connolly won the Irish presidential election on October 24. She turned out to be a staunch leftist, a supporter of the country's neutrality, as well as an opponent of NATO and the transfer of weapons to Kiev.

Disagreement with spending on military aid to Ukraine is also linked to economic stagnation, analysts say. Since the 2010s, the EU has shown a steady downward trend in growth: the average GDP growth rate over the past five years has not exceeded 1.2% per year, and in 2024 it was only 1%. The European Commission's forecast for 2025 is 1%, and for 2026 — no more than 1.5%. Against the background of the rejection of cheap Russian energy resources, the EU is facing a loss of competitiveness.